The Energy Crunch in Cuba is Just Beginning
Erasmo Calzadilla
HAVANA TIMES – I’ve just landed in Cuba, amidst a serious fuel crisis. Havana is in chaos, buses are nowhere to be seen or jam packed, gas stations have lines coming out of them like never before, just like the never-ending lines of people you see waiting to catch a private collective taxi (which have doubled their rates unanimously overnight)… It’s a fight you win by pushing and shoving. However, there are also gestures of kindness and anonymous solidarity, it’s not a complete jungle yet.
On September 12th, Diaz-Canel took on the job of publicly “explaining” the reasons for this situation. I am writing this article to expose some of the doubts and questions I had when I listened to his speech.
What mysterious company failed to meet its commitments because of the US embargo?
“They are trying to stop fuel from reaching Cuba, they are blackmailing companies and tankers that do business with our country, the application of the Helms-Burton Act intimidates and pressures them, and this situation has led to a low availability of fuel for production and services in recent days….”
Last March, amidst a power crisis that had Venezuela without electricity for several days, the (opposition-led) National Assembly voted to suspend crude oil supplies to Havana (some 47,000 barrels per day at the time). Now, the US has made sure to implement this measure by placing pressure on companies that transport the fossil fuel to the island.
The strange thing, though, is that when a company has caved to the pressure of the US embargo in the past, the Cuban government hasn’t thought twice to transform this matter into theatrics, exposing the news publicly wherever it can. But this time… mysterious silence and the government’s sweeping and abstract language gives rise to justified suspicions. Without any concrete facts, it’s impossible to verify the official story, and gaps in this story as well as going around in circles, makes us think that a tangled web is being spun around us.
The US embargo on oil coming from Venezuela (not from other regions though) is real. However, isn’t the Cuban government using the blockade to hide other problems from us, as we are accustomed, such as their failure to make payments or problems in the supplier country?
Are national reserves running out with the delay of just one tanker?
Every country has its own reserve of crude oil which is precisely meant to cover unforeseen setbacks in supplies. Because without fuel, everything comes to a standstill; that’s how toxic our dependency is.
Jorge Pinon, the director of the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Program, estimates that Cuba holds oil reserves [at least in containers] for approximately 45 days. Let’s do the math then. Tankers supplying the country don’t normally carry more than 600,000 barrels. If we assume that the island imports some 50,000 barrels per day, every tanker is transporting a supply that lasts 12 days, at most.
Diaz-Canel has told us that the crisis is due to just one oil tanker failing to make it to the island, that’s what I understood at least. So, my next question is: how can one tanker not fulfilling its delivery commitment turn an entire country upside-down? Where are the reserves that should still be enough to cover (45-12 = 33) one more month? If everything was and is fine except for this temporary setback, why did they extend the time needed to replace cooking gas containers for domestic use a few days ago?
A source with access to sensitive information confirmed what was already obvious: we’ve been eating away at the reserve for months now. But the government decided to hide the problem right up until the last moment, and when it did finally recognize the problem, it lied about how serious it is.
The country’s leadership wants everything to look fine and dandy so that investors don’t get scared off and to prevent public unrest from breaking out, so they put off the announcement of a crisis until the day after the bomb exploded. But a government that manipulates information like this is clearly not trustworthy, and everybody knows it. This is why many people have stopped believing them; no matter how much they bury themselves in the “temporary” nature of this storm, word on the street is that this is just the beginning, that the worst of it is still to come.
Clucking about the situation being temporary
Diaz-Canel stressed the temporary nature of the crisis in his TV/radio appearance on September 12th, and all of his channels of propaganda have been repeating this ever since. They are repeating this over and over again that it seems like comedy to me. Transport to workplaces and markets has been decimated but the minister of Economy is still saying that this won’t affect economic growth forecasts for this year because the energy deficit will soon be resolved.
A nice fairy tale, the only problem is that oil (which we depend on to the point of absurdity) is already lapsing; and exhausted reserves are really hitting Latin America’s large and medium exporters of this black gold. Especially Venezuela, who used to supply us before, and Mexico, where I’m told Cuba’s last deliveries came from. This conflict that seemed to be just political and economic up until now, stems from a geological reality; which means to say that the problem won’t be solved when we manage to evade the blockade and things will get worse in the medium-term.
Also read: Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean, Four Years on a Downslide
Diaz Canel and his ministers want us to be calm and hopeful, so they have dedicated more than half an hour of their extremely valuable time to vehemently reject the coming of another Special Period. But oil supplies will be seriously compromised in our region and the entire world, in the early years of the next decade, which is right around the corner. Yes, another “Special Period” crisis is coming and the best thing we can do is prepare ourselves as soon as possible. However, the government continues to give us false signs, inviting us to underestimate the destructive force of the tornado that is about to hit us.
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Articles consulted:
- Presidente Díaz-Canel announces temporary measures in the face of Cuba’s energy crisis http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2019/09/11/presidente-diaz-canel-informa-nuevas-medidas-ante-situacion-energetica-de-cuba/
- Fuel crisis on the horizon in Cuba https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2019/04/11/se-avecina-la-crisis-petrolera-en-cuba/
- Venezuela sends 1 million barrels of crude oil to Cuba after US sanctions https://www.radiotelevisionmarti.com/a/pdvsa-envia-1-mill%C3%B3n-de-barriles-de-crudo-a-cuba-tras-sanciones-de-eeuu/236388.html
- The US contemplates imposing sanctions on companies that facilitate oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/cuba-es/article227593149.html
- They aren’t messing about: Guaidó looks for a way to suspend oil shipments to Cuba https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article227412809.html
- Cuba cuts back on certain services because of fuel shortages https://www.elnuevodia.com/corresponsalias/cuba/nota/cubaracionaradiversosserviciosporcombustible-2517398/
Until Raul finally goes, don’t expect to see anything in Cuba to change in the least.
At least not until San Raul is finally gone!
Bienvenidos al “Segundo Periodo Especial en Tiempo de Paz” !
Well Terry its easy to list just a few of the negatives. No freedom of movement, no freedom of speech, no freedom of the media, no political choice, constant indoctrination, imposed rates of poverty – and those are just a few in the glass which is almost empty. But, why don’t you list those positives that you envisage in your more than half-full glass? Is it difficult to think of any? The chances of the world living as one in a communist morass are zero! Proof? Just study Eastern European experience of the USSR!
It’s not bias it’s the reality Terry.
It is what it is a 1 party dictatorship that doesn’t allow democracy.
It’s against everything basically we believe in.
It’s what makes Canada so great diversity, freedom to question to vote to start virtually any business, campaign there is so much that makes democracy so good.
And you condemn them to tyranny? Very shallow indeed.
Brad, by the same token, there will always be individuals like you and Carlyle who will merely see things as glass-half-empty in Cuba, blindly focusing only on the negatives due to their over-whelming bias. In the words of a very good friend of mine… ‘imagine all the people, living life in peace… you may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one, I hope some day you’ll join us, and the world will live as one.’ That man was indeed very wise. And for every one of you, there are thousands more who see the truth in those words of his.
Diplomacy, mutual respect, and co-habitation go much further with effecting real change instead of interventionist policies that only alienate dialogue and countries, as well as any chance of furthering relationships without all the unnecessary bravado. Cuba will never bend when others are trying to politically break them. Would you? I think not. Still… ‘I hope some day you’ll join us, and the world will live as one.’ The only solution indeed… after all, the other has proven to be a failed policy time and time again.
Terry
There will always be apologists for awful, unbending, incompetent dictatorships like in Cuba.
The anti-west so-called anti-imperialist propaganda line is a old one.
Cuba living off Venezuela was a dead end policy that was never going to work long-term.
The only way prosperity will return to Cuba is through democracy which is not going to happen with the communists.
Carlyle, the positives are quite obvious to anyone who knows anything about Cuba… you don’t really feel you need me to tell you what you already know as well, do you? And besides, I have a strong sense that you’re only interested in provoking an argument. Although my name is Terry, my last name is not Gilliam. Carlyle, you can’t tell me that you’re not wanting to have an argument… of course you are! Now will that be the full argument, or were you thinking of taking the course?
Terry
You forgot to list the “positives” Terry, which are?
Carlyle, glad you’re in agreement.
Terry
Well Terry, I find nothing acceptable about totalitarian repression. I realize that there are those who seek to mitigate the policies and actions of the Castro communist regime with platitudes and endeavors to explain that things are possibly even worse elsewhere. Obviously it is your honest belief that despite the repression practiced by the regime, the denial of human rights (as defined by the UN) the denial of free speech, the denial of information by being one of the ten most censored countries in the world (as listed less than one month ago), the denial of choice of multi-party democracy, that for Cubans, “the glass is more half-full than half empty”. What are the positives that you view with such enthusiasm? Perhaps you will trot out the usual stuff about education and medical services – and what else can you list?
If eventually gaining freedom from totalitarian rule, Cubans will not necessarily follow the US model, for there are much better alternatives which provide the freedoms to which I referred. If you happen to recall any of my previous comments in these pages and in my book, you will know that I am critical of the history of the US specifically regarding Cuba, since the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 onward. I have never promoted imperialism, but do far prefer capitalism with all its faults, to communism.
Cuba is in itself an example of corruption, injustice and inequality whilst posing that its Stalinist policies promote equality. Luxury island retreats, yachts, private swimming pools and tennis courts are reserved for the political elite.
You seem to suggest that the status quo in Cuba is preferable to other options. In response, may I enquire what kind of future do you see for my eight year Cuban old God-child? Is she to anticipate this same worn out weary communist rule for the rest of her life? If not, how do you envisage the Castro regime and those appointed to pursue Raul Castro’s beliefs and policies which have now been enacted for sixty years, managing to change, and in what way? Do you see some hope and can you describe any indications?
Oil is Holding Cuba Together: I Find that Difficult to Except. Yes you will Need to Cut most of our Pleasures like A.C. The Old Car Fedish & Lots of other Sacrifices, Learning to live again with Less as your Parents did & Many Many Cubans Still today. Until you have lived with Cuba We will Not understand how Fuel oil is Not Your First Priority. Some Where we Need To Open the Minds of this Now Generation, :Gotta Have it Now: Electricity To Be Created Before We Can Rely on it. Oil is Not a Reliable Creator.Next There Really Needs to be a Greater Value of this internet for your Future :Gotta Get With it or you will always Running Behind the Lead Dog Looking at Ass for another 60 plus. No One Is Going To Give it To You with out Getting Something in Return. :The Swindle Is Over: The Gig,s up. Stand On Your Own Two Feet. You Have Burt All Your Bridges. Are you Up The Creek with out a Paddle, I Think Not if you use that Given Gift we all Have. 5pm 19th Sept. Justin T. ask For Forgiveness Before We Canadians Put Him In Prison. That,s Our News.
Carlyle, I’m legally married to a cubana living there too, with dozens of Cuban family members as well, so please don’t think that I’m both innocent or naive when it comes to understanding all things Cuba. I tend to be a bit more ‘Switzerland’ though with how I see the current government of Cuba when juxtaposed to other forms government and current regimes around the world. I always see the glass as more half-full than half-empty in Cuba, preferring to focus more so on the positives. Does Cuba need some changes in order to better evolve the standard of living and/or basic freedoms? Sure! But not at the expense of selling out to imperialism and the corruption, injustice, and inequality that it inherently breeds. American style democracy is not all it’s cracked up to be. I think if you’re honest with yourself you could possibly agree with me as well.
Terry
Oh how innocent you are Terry. Do you deny that misinformation is an art form long practiced assiduously by successive communist regimes – or are you ignorant of the history of the USSR which imprisoned some 13 European countries? I speak from prolonged knowledge not off the cuff. Communism likes to live in denial, utilizing misinformation as for example regarding Katyn.
Of course other democratically elected governments endeavor to present themselves in the most favorable light, but unlike those in the totalitarian states like Cuba, they are subject to scrutiny by both their electorate and media – the Castro regime is subject to neither!
If I have bias towards Cuba, it is a favorable one. I love the country and admire most of its people – that has lead to me being married to a Cuban, my home and over sixty relatives are there.
Do I detest totalitarian rule? Yes, and that is what Cubans currently suffer!
Carlyle, all one needs to do is replace the names Diaz-Canel and Raul Castro for others and your statement would fit any government. Think about it… the orange clown has created an entirely new art form involving that premise. It’s incredible to me that you’re so blind to that reality because of your overwhelming bias regarding Cuba.
So what’s new in the Castro regime telling lies? “Misinformation” is an art form in the communist world. Diaz-Canel is but a well trained puppet – speaking for the actual dictator Raul Castro Ruz.