Three Options: Which Will Be the Least Bad?

Erasmo Calzadilla

HAVANA TIMES – The fate of Cuba is being played out in the Venezuelan elections on Sunday. From my point of view there are three possible scenarios (as political scientists like to say).

One is for the current president Hugo Chavez to be reelected. This would mean another long streak of slow agony that keeps us alive but on a shoestring.

If Chavez loses, things are going to get very ugly, at least for a while. Without cheap oil from Venezuela I believe that this political system will succumb.

The government would have to apply very strong repression to contain the opposition and that would be its end, especially if the Republicans regain the White House in the US.

The third variant is that Henrique Capriles or Hugo Chavez challenge the validity of the elections and armed social conflict ensues, involving the countries of the region, either directly or indirectly.

In that case it is likely that the leaders of Cuba sent troops: firstly in special secret missions, and later, regular troops if the conflict is internationalized.

For all these reasons I think the average Cuban (except those who know how to fish in troubled waters) has little to gain and much to lose from Venezuela’s presidential election.

Hopefully what happens on Sunday at least won’t trigger doomsday.