What Can Cuba Expect from a Return of the Right in Latin America?

Rogelio Manuel Díaz Moreno

HAVANA TIMES — Several analysts suggest that Latin American governments are nearing the “end of the progressive cycle.” Over the past 10 to 15 years, countries like Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil and others saw the electoral success of political forces with social programs of anti-neoliberal slant. Today, however, a number of these societies are amid corruption scandals, street protests and other forms of public unrest.

If we’re strict about it, these governments never moved far beyond a kind of Keynesian reformism. They did not question the foundations of the capitalist and exploitative systems in these nations. During a period of economic growth, they reaped success through investment in social programs. Today, in a time of recession, the unresolved contradictions of their capitalist systems are creating serious difficulties for these countries.

Cuba’s official newspapers trivialized these problems and, for the most part, attributed them to maneuvers by the traditional Right. They are not wrong on this last point – it’s only natural for the Right to want to screw over its political adversaries to the left. The official media have a harder time explaining phenomena such as Ecuador’s “confused” Left, which does not support President Correa, or concealing that Dilma Roussef’s approval ratings are currently around 10%.

Journalist Angel Guerra Cabrera, writing in the government’s leading website Cubadebate, insists that what we’re seeing is not the end of the progressive cycle by a counteroffensive and coup attempts by the Right.

Brazilian investors are among the most active in Cuba. This situation has been made possible by the favorable relations between the two countries and the fact that the Brazilian government has offered the huge Odebrecht corporation and other companies operating in Cuba extraordinary support. If such support were to be withdrawn, negotiations surrounding present and future undertakings would become far more complicated.

These statements remind me of those who, irate, refused to acknowledge that the Soviet Union of 1989 had more holes in it than Swiss cheese. Then and today, those who criticize aspects of these countries have been dismissed as ideologically confused individuals or people who play into the hands of the enemy, among other things.

This leads us to other reflections. To refuse to acknowledge the regression of the Left and to call it the advance of the Right strikes of the Byzantine and the blind. If one is a rabbit and a pack of dogs can be heard in the distance, it would be wise to know what one should do next, no matter what kinds of dogs are chasing us.

One isn’t exactly wise, having more concerns that answers. Brazil and Venezuela are Cuba’s most important commercial partners. Considerable – if not major – sources of income for the country depend on commercial relations with these two nations (particularly those having to do with medical programs). Some members of the opposition in Brazil and Venezuela are explicitly opposed to these relations; others appear to be more conciliatory. At any rate, the sword of Damocles hands over them today.

Brazilian investors are among the most active in Cuba. This situation has been made possible by the favorable relations between the two countries and the fact that the Brazilian government has offered the huge Odebrecht corporation and other companies operating in Cuba extraordinary support. If such support were to be withdrawn, negotiations surrounding present and future undertakings would become far more complicated.

Good relations with Uruguay and Argentina are also maintained. Uruguay, for instance, pardoned Cuba a debt of several tens of millions of dollars. Cuba exports pharmaceutical products to the entirety of this region; it imports food products and receives tourists, etc. If Cuban importers (all State-run) were to face a less favorable climate, the population could run into shortages of products, even of those sold by the government in Cuban Convertible Pesos (hard currency).

Now, we are seeing a phenomenon which brings both new opportunities and new risks. I am referring to normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States.

Now, Cuba can only make purchases from the United States in cash. Everyone speaks of the advantages that being allowed to purchase on credit would bring. This will certainly be positive, but we shouldn’t forget the other side of the coin.

Capital from the United States – particularly from Cuban-Americans – is again, gradually taking root in our soil. It is likely to expand quickly, as the US embargo-blockade continues to be eroded. The yanks are not going to come and invest here because they’re “good people.” If they’re granted more space to maneuver, they’re going to do so, but they’re also going to want to decorate the room to their liking. It will be convenient for them to dismantle all principles of social justice that stand in the way of the exploitation of local wealth, and of the work force in particular.

Dealing with this won’t be impossible, but to reap something positive from the contradictions between the different societies will be difficult. On this end, it would require the existence of a socialist, popular, democratic, courageous and efficacious system that would allow the working class to organize in a manner that would permit this. Thanks to the authoritarianism of our current Party-State-Government and its effort to reduce the people to a docile workforce, we have still to create the antibodies needed to constructively interact with the capitalist forces up north.

If importing farm products from the south becomes more difficult, there will likely be no shortage of offers coming from the north. That will depend heavily, of course, on how the political landscape evolves up there. In such a scenario, we can expect to see plenty of Monsanto corn, a lot of transgenic chicken and similar things. Perhaps it won’t be that different from what used to be sold to us in the past.

If we wanted to be pessimistic, there are plenty of places where things could go wrong.

Now, Cuba can only make purchases from the United States in cash. Everyone speaks of the advantages that being allowed to purchase on credit would bring. This will certainly be positive, but we shouldn’t forget the other side of the coin.

How much can Cuba come to owe the United States in a mere 10 years, if the blockade were lifted? And every penny owed to the United States, to its banks and capitalists will make this country sweat blood. Given the natural aversion that the north has for the label of socialism – no matter how inaccurate they are – there will be no pardons or any possibility of settling the debt with the sale of bio-pharmaceuticals, and we won’t likely see friendly governments willing to become co-guarantors, as we’ve seen in dealings with the south.

Of course, a competent and responsible government devoid of corruption could avoid such complications. It would be able to secure the good while avoiding the bad. But we know we have no such government. They are going to place our throats in their hands, and we all know how dangerous that can be.