The Cuban Economy: A Deepening Decline
Cuba faces a multidimensional crisis—economic, infrastructural, social—that calls for nothing less than structural change.
HAVANA TIMES – With a focus on recent developments and their implications, Progreso Weekly offers a quick analysis of the Cuban economy over the past few months. Here are some of our findings
1. Escalating Inflation and Currency Collapse
Inflation remains a critical challenge for Cuba. Official figures suggest a slowdown, but real conditions tell a much grimmer story. According to a May 2025 report, inflation stood at around 16.4% year-on-year, with food prices—particularly for staples like rice, eggs, and potatoes—rising sharply. However, the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely underestimates actual inflation, as it excludes the informal markets where most Cubans shop.
On the ground, this harsh truth became clear when the government nearly doubled pensions, increasing them to about 4,000 pesos a month. In theory, that might sound significant, but at the informal exchange rate—around 400 Cuban pesos (CUP) per USD—it only amounts to about $7–8 a month. That amount is clearly not enough to buy basics like chicken or eggs, even at subsidized prices.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s peso continues its free fall. Around August 3, the dollar reached 395 CUP on the informal market, matching 2024’s record high, according to CiberCuba. By August 20, the peso slipped even further: the dollar rose to 405 CUP, while the euro hovered near 450 CUP. This rapid devaluation erodes purchasing power, particularly for households relying on fixed incomes or salaries paid in pesos, with limited or no access to US dollars or other hard currencies.
These figures collectively emphasize that inflation has not slowed down but is instead eroding living standards—much more than what official measurements show.
2. Crumbling Pillars: Tourism, Sugar, and Infrastructure
Two of Cuba’s most vital economic pillars—tourism and sugar production—have collapsed.
Tourism, once a major source of revenue, continues to decline. Progreso Weekly reported that through April 2025, tourist arrivals were down 72% compared to the previous year, and hotel occupancy dropped to a bleak 24.1%. Another report indicates that even though some tourist infrastructure remains funded by the state, conditions—such as blackouts, poor services, road decay, and increased insecurity—have made Cuba an increasingly unattractive destination.
Sugar, a historic pillar of Cuba’s economy, is in even worse condition. The 2024–25 harvest failed badly: production dropped to 165,000 metric tons, from a peak in the millions. This collapse threatens the rum industry, which relies entirely on local sugarcane for molasses—putting brands like Havana Club and foreign investors such as Diageo and Pernod Ricard at risk, according to The Guardian.
Energy infrastructure remains both a crisis and a constraint. Persistent blackouts—some nationwide—highlight chronic failures in electricity generation. A blackout in February 2025 affected large parts of the country (e.g., 45% outage), and similar disruptions have happened again, pointing to underlying fuel shortages and aging plants. Energy shortages impact every sector: industry, tourism, commerce, housing—virtually all sectors face breakdowns due to power instability.
3. Dollars, Dollarization, and Economic Fragmentation
To withstand the crisis, the Cuban government has intensified dollarization, increasing economic divisions.
Some state entities now require payments in US dollars instead of pesos. For example, Cubija—a state-owned real estate company affiliated with the military conglomerate GAESA—announced that foreign tenants must pay rent in USD at the official exchange rate (1 USD = 24 CUP). Because this rate doesn’t match the actual exchange rate (about 400 CUP), costs rise sharply, causing a major shock to foreign businesses in Cuba.
Moreover, ETECSA—the state telecom provider—has shifted toward USD-only digital services, limiting access for Cubans who earn in pesos; student protests have erupted in response.
While these dollar-focused policies help the government secure scarce hard currency, they also widen economic inequality. Those with access to remittances, MLC cards, or foreign currency savings can buy necessities and services; those without such access face ongoing deprivation.
4. Negative Growth and Forecasts of Continued Decline
External projections provide little hope for near-term improvement. ECLAC predicts a –1.5% GDP decline in 2025, with only 0.1% growth expected in 2026. Cuba is projected to be among the worst-performing economies in the region—second only to Haiti in terms of decline.
Economists highlight that macroeconomic fundamentals remain severely weak: structural deficits, the erosion of productive capacity, inadequate investment, and the persistent lack of foreign exchange. Despite some fiscal tightening, deficits continue to be unsustainable, and growth remains constrained by inflation and monetary expansion.
5. Conclusion and Forward View: A nation suffocating under structural collapse
In the past month, there is no indication that Cuba’s economy is stabilizing. On the contrary, signs of worsening—currency collapse, food shortages, infrastructure failures, and declining tourism—are becoming more severe. The measures taken, pension increases, dollarization and limited investment, are reactionary rather than transformative.
While pension recipients see a nominal increase, 4,000 Cuban pesos divided at the unstable exchange rate buys almost nothing. Tourism, sugar, and energy sectors are collapsing simultaneously, removing vital sources of revenue, jobs, and government income. And dollarization, far from being a solution, deepens a divided economy: one corridor for those with access to foreign currency, another for the poor with only limited local resources.
The choices ahead
For meaningful improvement, Cuba needs bold economic reform:
- Structural investment and diversification: Reviving domestic production—in agriculture, energy, and manufacturing—must be prioritized over tactical reallocation of funds.
- Currency and monetary reform: The dual/fragmented rates are unsustainable. Cuba needs a unified, realistic exchange system and control over inflation through credible fiscal policy.
- Energy modernization: Blackouts are not a temporary nuisance but a daily economic death knell. Investing in renewable energy and grid repairs is urgent.
- Tourism overhaul: The sector needs revitalization—not just infrastructure, but improved accessibility, services, reputation, and tourist safety.
Absent such measures, Cuba risks further contraction, deeper poverty, and continued slide into international economic isolation.
In summary, the past month shows not fleeting turbulence but a deepening decline. Cuba faces a multidimensional crisis—economic, infrastructural, social—that calls for nothing less than structural change. Without it, the outlook is bleak: hollowed out by inflation, crippled by outages, and divided by access to foreign currency—one segment thriving in dollars, another sinking in pesos.