Bolivia: Election Surprise and MAS Will Cease to Govern
Jorge Quiroga and Rodrigo Paz headed for runoff
Businessman Samuel Doria Medina, who was the favorite in pre-election polls, accepted defeat, finishing third with 19.86%.
HAVANA TIMES – The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) will stop governing Bolivia after nearly 20 years. In the general elections held Sunday, August 18, 2025, opposition presidential candidates Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira and former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga will face off in the first runoff in the country’s history.
Paz Pereira, of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), came in first place with 32.14% of valid votes, according to the Preliminary Electoral Results from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), after 95.41% of the ballots were tallied.
Quiroga (2001–2002), of the Libre alliance, reached 26.81% of the vote, according to the same preliminary figures, with the official count forthcoming.
Under Bolivian electoral law, since no candidate reached more than 50% of the votes, nor at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a runoff will take place on October 19.
MAS on the Brink of Extinction After Bolivia’s Elections
The ruling MAS had former Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo as its candidate, after President Luis Arce declined to seek reelection amid an economic crisis affecting Bolivia.
Del Castillo received 3.16% of the vote, a percentage that—if unchanged in the final official results—would be just enough to preserve MAS’s legal status. According to electoral law, a party that fails to surpass 3% must be dissolved.
More than 7.5 million Bolivians were registered to vote for president, vice president, and legislators for the next five years.
The day was described as “peaceful” by electoral observation missions from the European Union and the Organization of American States (OAS), the largest delegations monitoring the process.
However, candidate Andrónico Rodriguez, of the Popular alliance, was attacked with stones by several individuals after casting his ballot in Entre Ríos, in the Chapare region of Cochabamba, the political and union stronghold of former president Evo Morales (2006–2019).
Rodriguez, who is also president of the Senate, was branded a “traitor” by Morales for running independently for the presidency, distancing himself from the ex-leader once considered his political mentor. Both men are union leaders of coca growers in the Chapare.
For his part, President Arce said he had fulfilled his duty by “guaranteeing a peaceful and transparent electoral process,” and pledged to ensure a “democratic transition” when handing over the presidency on November 8.
Doria Medina Would Support Paz Pereira in the Runoff
Opposition businessman Samuel Doria Medina, who had been favored in pre-election polls, conceded defeat after finishing third with 19.86% of the vote, and indicated he would support Paz Pereira in the runoff.
Meanwhile, Morales—who was unable to run for president due to a constitutional disqualification and his failure to find a party to support him after leaving MAS—spent recent weeks campaigning for a null vote.
He also accused Arce’s government of planning “fraud” in these elections and announced he would meet with his supporters on Wednesday to analyze the results.
With the conclusion of the electoral day, Bolivia’s politics and state will undergo an abrupt shift as either Quiroga, representing the right, or Paz Pereira, representing the center, enters the executive branch.
Official results are still awaited to determine the new makeup of the legislature, where MAS also held a majority for nearly two decades.