Chile’s Presidential Runoff This Sunday December 14th
Will history repeat or reinvent itself?
By Orestes E. Diaz Rodríguez (Latinoamérica21)
HAVANA TIMES – Next January marks twenty-six years since an unprecedented electoral outcome in the period following Chile’s return to democracy in 1989.
It was the end of the term of the center-left president Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, and the electoral outlook was not promising. Unemployment had reached 11%, economic growth was zero, social conflict and perceptions of insecurity were on the rise, and rejection of the government’s performance stood at 45%, with only 28% approving.
The continuity of the governing coalition was in doubt. When the ruling party’s presidential candidate enters the race carrying the weight of widespread public dissatisfaction with the sitting president, retaining power is generally unlikely.
But the 2000 presidential election contradicted that rule. Despite the challenging context, Ricardo Lagos, the governing coalition’s candidate, won the runoff by three percentage points over Joaquín Lavín of the right-wing coalition.
Since the return to democracy, it was the only time the ruling party managed to stay in power despite majority public disapproval of the sitting president. Attempts to repeat that outcome later failed. In the presidential elections of 2013 and 2021, the governing center-right’s bid to hold on to power collapsed under the insurmountable barrier of public fatigue with the performance of Sebastián Piñera. Meanwhile, in the 2017 elections, the center-left was unable to overcome the public’s rejection of Michelle Bachelet’s administration.
Why the Government’s Unprecedented Victory in 2000?
Although President Frei’s poor performance strengthened the opposition’s chances, the right-wing’s voter base was insufficient. In 2000, just a decade into the transition and with the lingering authoritarian enclaves left behind by the dictatorship, the prospect of a right-wing victory represented a serious threat to the continuity of Chile’s developing democratic order.
Joaquin Lavin and the main figures of the right had undeniable ties to the Pinochet regime. For crucial sectors of the electorate, a right-wing return to power posed a threat to democratic continuity. Frei’s failures made the opposition stronger electorally—indeed, they achieved the best vote tally in their history—but they failed to convince most voters committed to the country’s democratic path that they were a credible governing alternative.
The 2025 Presidential Election: A Repeat of 2000?
There is a significant similarity between the 2000 runoff and the one to be held on December 14. The presidential candidate of the governing coalition, communist and former Labor Minister Jeanette Jara, is running while dragging the burden of a sharply negative public evaluation of the sitting president, Gabriel Boric.
The September-October survey by the Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP) places Boric’s disapproval at 62%, with only 28% approving—figures that, both in Chile and across Latin America, have consistently predicted unfavorable electoral prospects for incumbent parties.
But on the opposite side stands the controversial figure of Jose Manuel Kast, leader of the Republican Party. In 1989, Kast supported allowing Pinochet to remain in power. He chaired the Political Network for Values, considered by many to espouse extreme positions. He has defended the dictatorship’s economic legacy and said during the 2017 elections that the General would vote for him if he were alive. Kast and his party sit on the far right of the ideological spectrum and have no national-level governing experience.
According to the 2024 Latinobarómetro report, 61% of Chileans support democracy. The question is whether a potential Kast government represents a threat to Chile’s democratic order.
Indeed, the 2025 runoff in some ways revives the central axis of the 2000 race: a poorly evaluated left-wing government fighting to retain power against a right-wing challenger who raises doubts about his commitment to democracy.
Will History Repeat Itself?
The 2000 precedent is important but not necessarily decisive. Recall that Argentina’s 2023 presidential election also pitted a weakened left-wing governing force (Unión por la Patria) against an extreme-right outsider without governing experience (La Libertad Avanza), who nonetheless won clear majority support.
Competitions between these two types of rivals do not always end the same way. A more useful question is: what determines whether a contest between a poorly evaluated left-wing incumbent and a right-wing challenger with limited credibility ends in favor of one side or the other?
How Voters Approach the Ballot Box
Voter support depends on how they perceive the context at the moment they vote. If the situation is seen as only moderately unfavorable, they may support continuity. But if it is perceived as critical, voters tend to set aside their doubts and back the challenger.
The latest CEP survey offers clues about the frame of mind with which Chileans will vote on December 14.
- 84% rate the country’s situation as bad or average.
- 80% believe the country is stagnant or in decline.
- 89% rate the current political situation as average, bad, or very bad.
- 64% believe democracy works poorly or only moderately well, versus 33% who believe it works well or very well.
- 48% believe that in some circumstances an authoritarian regime may be preferable, or that it makes no difference whether the regime is democratic or authoritarian.
- 47% believe democracy is preferable to any other form of government.
Other Relevant Data
Other indicators offer insight into how the balance might shift. Candidate perception matters. Kast enters the election with a 38% positive image and 39% negative—dramatically better than in 2021, when only 16% viewed him positively and 61% negatively. By contrast, Jeanette Jara registers 32% positive and 44% negative.
In the first round, Jara received 26.8% of the vote, compared with Kast’s 23.9%. Populist Franco Parisi of the People’s Party came in third with nearly 20%. The support of Parisi’s voters—he announced he will cast a null ballot—will be crucial. According to polls, 49% of his supporters would back Kast, while only 16% would back Jara.
Meanwhile, two other presidential candidates—libertarian Johannes Kaiser and traditional-right figure Evelyn Matthei—received 14% and 12.5% respectively, and both promptly endorsed Kast in the runoff.
Although Kast’s Republicans won the largest representation in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, they do not control enough seats to enact legislative reforms that could covertly alter the political regime. If they win the presidency, the composition of Congress will force them to negotiate and reach agreements with other parties.
Finally, Kast centered his campaign on three issues that Chileans consider priorities and on which the government has performed poorly: public order, immigration control, and the economy.
A repeat of the 2000 outcome would be the surprise. It seems more plausible that most voters will set aside their reservations about a potential Kast administration and elect him president. Sometimes history repeats itself—but other times, it reinvents itself.
First published in Spanish by Lationamerica21 and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.