A Delcy Rodriguez Wanted for Cuba
HAVANA TIMES – What happened at the beginning of the year in Venezuela continues to have broad repercussions in Cuba, and some are already asking whether it would be possible to have here a transition like the one being led by former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.
First, one would have to see whether we have the right person, because the iron work of State Security has decapitated, year after year, anyone who so much as steps slightly out of line, from Luis Orlando Dominguez to Alejandro Gil, passing through Lage, Perez Roque, Robaina, and all the others.
That person is crucial, in addition to another—or the same one—in the military sphere who could enable an operation as clean as the one that culminated in the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
Cuba’s profound economic crisis, marked by daily blackouts, extreme shortages of food and medicine, more visible political repression, and the largest migratory exodus in its history, is sufficient material for someone with a minimum sense of civic responsibility to consider changing the political and economic system that governs the country.
The rapprochement during Barack Obama’s administration failed to produce the expected changes, or it was not given the necessary time to reach them, and now Washington has cut the flow of Venezuelan money and oil to the island, to leave the Cuban government in an even more vulnerable position, awaiting a social explosion or the emergence of an internal ally in the style of Delcy Rodriguez.
President Trump himself recently confirmed that the United States is holding talks with Cuba, for the moment very discreet, but presumed to have the objective of exploring a political change soon. The problem is that a valid interlocutor is needed, because the hand-picked Miguel Diaz-Canel will only continue following the historical instructions of the Castros.
Apparently, the clear divisions within the centers of power that existed in Venezuela do not exist in Cuba, because control of the security forces and the state apparatus is in very few hands.
Hence the continued pressure, and among the options being considered by the US government is a naval blockade to prevent the arrival to Cuba of any fuel shipments. If they already did it in Venezuela, they can do it in the Caribbean as well, even if it is a much broader maritime territory.
What happens is that a total blockade of oil imports to Cuba could unleash a humanitarian crisis, and this possibility has led some members of the Administration to resist.
The fear remains that a Haiti could be repeated at the doors of the United States, with a humanitarian crisis and a surge in criminality that would lead to a massive migratory crisis, and therefore they must think very carefully about what they will do.
Mexico is currently the main supplier of crude to Havana, and Russia to a lesser degree, and although those shipments are not enough to keep the economy running, they are an oxygen tank to which the dictatorship clings with all its strength.
The presence of the aircraft carrier George W. Bush in the Caribbean led the regime to establish “maximum alert,” and phrases that had seemed forgotten reappear, such as “the war of all the people.”
But for the Cuban people, the first priority is not looking at the sky to see whether planes from the North will come, but at the ground, to see whether there is anything to put on their plates; instead of thinking about the defense of sovereignty, people think about pure and simple survival.
While the National Defense Council announced that “plans and measures for moving to a State of War” were being reviewed, people continue witnessing the constant rise in the prices of basic products and medicines.
Although the exceptional defense regime was not activated, a political message was sent—the only thing the dictatorship has left—because its military resources are laughable compared to those of its potential opponents in a hypothetical war scenario.
According to the 2019 Constitution and the National Defense Law, the State of War can only be declared by the National Assembly of People’s Power or, failing that, by the Council of State; and it can only be done in the face of an imminent aggression or a materialized attack, but so far those conditions have not been recognized.
The same swagger that Maduro proclaimed we are now seeing here, but one has to see for how long, and in this the figure of that Trojan Horse appears crucial: someone from within who can clear the path and later lead a transition, which would be much faster than in Venezuela, because here it would not be about controlling a non-existent oil sector, but about truly empowering the population and reforming the ineffective state economic policy.
For the moment Cuba denies that there is a war in order to avoid acknowledging a declared conflict, with its legal and political implications with the United States, and this allows Trump to buy time while he looks for his Delcy Rodriguez.
Surely on the desk in the Oval Office —like an array of cards— all the profiles of members of the Council of State and the high military chiefs are spread out, waiting to find the right one, the one fed up with the lack of concrete initiatives from the Cuban government to open spaces for participation and dialogue, because up to now the regime’s responses have been more repressive than conciliatory.
The repression of the July 2021 protests and the continued detention of opponents are proof that, far from moving toward democracy, the Cuban government seems to cling to authoritarian control.
That is why it is difficult to find that narrow opening, but it must be the immediate objective for those who advocate a change of system in Cuba. That Ace in the deck must be found, and everything will be easier, because what seems quite clear is that “the war of all the people” is not going to happen. On the contrary, that same people would be grateful to shed the burden of the dictatorship.