Costa Rica: Elections Sunday Under Bukele’s Shadow
With a divided opposition, Costa Rica’s elections are being watched with concern—and with them the danger of a right-wing populist model.
By Deutsche Welle (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES — Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will not appear on the ballot in Costa Rica’s elections this weekend. But his shadow has hovered over the race from the start: several candidates adopted his “iron fist” slogan against crime as a campaign theme, including the Costa Rican husband of one of Bukele’s cousins.
Without a doubt, however, the politician who has most exploited his ideological closeness to Bukele is current President Rodrigo Chaves, a former World Bank official with a neoliberal agenda and a controversial right-wing populist style. His People’s Sovereign Party, founded in 2022, even adopted the same color as Bukele’s movement: a turquoise-blue emblem.
Costa Rica at a turning point
Because the Constitution prohibits reelection, Chaves put forward his former minister, Laura Fernandez, who—according to several polls—leads comfortably and may even surpass the 40 percent needed to win in the first round.
Despite lacking charisma and a political profile of her own, Fernandez benefits from the backing and popularity of her mentor and from the weakness of her rivals. The best-positioned among the 20 opposition candidacies is economist Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party, hovering around 10 percent of voting intention.
Surprises are still possible, warn experts consulted by DW, since a third of the electorate remains undecided and polls have not been very reliable in the past.
But if there is one thing the experts agree on, it is that the country—long famous as a regional example of democracy and sustainability—faces a change of era if a model that combines punitive populism with a neoliberal, extractivist economic policy takes hold.
A president at odds with those who set limits
“We are in a complex situation because the current government has systematically dedicated itself to attacking the democratic institutions that have set Costa Rica apart from the rest of Central American countries,” says sociologist Montserrat Sagot in an interview with DW. She cites, for example, attacks on the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the judiciary, and critical media outlets.
Added to this is an ongoing dispute with a legislature in which Chaves never held a majority. The conflict culminated in two failed attempts to strip the president of immunity. The latest was over political belligerence—a provision that prohibits a sitting president from involving himself in electoral matters or expressing support even for the ruling party.
All this unfolds amid a steady deterioration in public health and education—once the pride of Costa Rican society—and a rise in violence over the past four years: homicides increased from 13 to 18 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Economic growth and a narrative that taps emotions
It does not appear to be a particularly favorable record for staying in power. Yet with 52 percent approval, Chaves enjoys high popularity, explained on the one hand by robust economic growth averaging 4.4 percent over the past four years, and on the other by a carefully crafted narrative.
Blaming traditional parties for deterioration and other branches of government for obstructing Chaves’s proposed reforms is a persuasive story, says Carlos Sandoval, a PhD in cultural studies at the University of Birmingham.
“It shows the capacity of authoritarian populism to connect emotionally with sectors that are struggling,” he tells DW. But he also believes the opposition is failing: “It doesn’t present major proposals and invests its energy in criticizing the president and his candidate,” thereby giving them publicity and squandering the opportunity to put forward its own agenda.
For Ingrid Hausinger, the campaign has not been about concrete proposals but about emotions and vague promises—something reflected in the ruling party’s slogan: “continuity for change.”
The Central America representative of the Heinrich Böll Foundation (close to Germany’s Green Party) observes another specter haunting voters’ minds: “There is a lot of fear among the electorate about losing quality of life, and this government knows how to capitalize on it very well.”
Not sacrificing development for a few trees
There is another issue long associated with Costa Rica that has barely appeared in the electoral debate: ecology. Being a green and sustainable country was Costa Rica’s brand over the past 30 years and a pillar of tourism, an important economic sector. However, this could change if Fernandez wins, experts warn.
“Chaves openly says he will not sacrifice development for a few trees and monkeys. It’s a classist, extractivist vision that favors large investors,” says Sagot, a professor at the School of Sociology of the University of Costa Rica.
Hausinger has also observed an environmental rollback that could accelerate if Fernandez prevails. “Costa Rica had a loan to build an electric train that Chaves canceled; they are privatizing the public energy company; and prior consultations are not being conducted for investment projects,” the ecologist lists.
There are many more examples. The government wants to reauthorize large-scale mining, banned in the country since 2010. Costa Rica has not signed the region’s first environmental agreement—the Escazú Agreement—despite being one of the countries that most supported negotiations of the treaty adopted in 2018.
“In the political agenda, priority has been completely taken away from the environment; even government reports no longer include chapters dedicated to the issue. We see an attitude very similar to the rest of Central America, where the environment has ceased to be a priority,” Hausinger emphasizes.
All three agree that these elections could mark the end of Costa Rican exceptionalism. “But it also depends on how the legislative assembly is configured,” Sagot cautions.
Hopes of preserving past advances rest with a citizenry that has previously shown a tendency toward moderation, placing counterweights to avoid concentration and abuse of power.
Published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.