COP30 and the Latin American Challenge to Reduce Emissions
HAVANA TIMES – Latin America’s biggest polluters reveal contradictions and paradoxes in their climate policies that undermine the limited progress they have achieved.
Brazil, host of the Leaders’ Summit starting Thursday the 6th and of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) on climate change—which will take place in the Amazonian city of Belém—is a prime example of those contradictions and paradoxes.
In the past two years, the region’s largest country has reduced emissions from deforestation, but emissions from sectors such as energy and agriculture have grown, contributing to rising temperatures and drought in the Amazon.
David Tsai, coordinator of the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimation System (SEEG), said this situation reveals both a contradiction and a paradox within Brazil’s emission-mitigation policy.
“In the past two years, emissions have decreased due to deforestation control, which is necessary, but what the last 15 years show is that this is not enough. We need to decarbonize other sectors as well,” he told IPS from Brasília.
The paradox, he added, is that despite reduced tree-clearing in the world’s largest rainforest, the Amazon has suffered forest fires due to high temperatures and drought—effects of the climate catastrophe. “This shows that the government must do more in other sectors, just like the rest of the world. Saving the Amazon is no longer solely Brazil’s responsibility,” he stressed.
Data from the nongovernmental SEEG indicate that Latin America’s largest economy reduced its greenhouse-gas emissions—those generated by human activity that drive global warming—by 17% in 2024, the biggest drop since 2009.
While land-use change (deforestation) fell by 32%, sectors such as livestock—one of the engines of the national economy—and energy production and consumption grew by 20% compared with the 2005 baseline year for Brazil’s nationally determined contribution (NDC).
Thus, Brazil, the world’s fourth-largest polluter, will fail to meet its 2025 emissions target of 1.32 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent, the main greenhouse gas, falling short by about 9%, according to SEEG—and will also miss its 2030 goal.
CO₂ equivalent is a unit of measurement used to compare the emissions of different greenhouse gases according to their global-warming potential.
Brazil’s record highlights the region’s difficulties in meeting its voluntary NDC commitments—sets of mitigation and adaptation policies that countries must submit every five years under the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Against this backdrop, the region arrives at COP30 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to be held in Belém, Pará, from November 10 to 21.
This year’s event will be preceded by an exceptional two-day Leaders’ Summit on November 6 and 7, a segment that Brazil’s COP30 presidency brought forward for logistical reasons, since Belém is ill-equipped to host a gathering expected to draw over 40,000 people, including government representatives, international agencies, academics, civil-society organizations, and journalists.
Image: Emilio Godoy / IPS
A Common Problem
Mexico, the region’s second-largest economy and second-biggest emitter, faces a situation similar to Brazil’s. Its third NDC is rated “insufficient” by the international scientific platform Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
Total emissions grew 67% between 1990 and 2022, with a 5.8% increase during the 2012–2022 decade. Energy generation and use accounted for 63%, livestock 15%, industrial processes 9.6%, and waste 8.5%.
The Mexican government claims it is on track to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030, consistent with its 2022 NDC. However, CAT judged that target “critically insufficient” to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
As COP30 approaches, Mexico has yet to publish its new NDC, which would set a 35% emissions-reduction target, equivalent to around 225 million tons of CO₂.
Argentina, for its part, says it is close to achieving its pollution-reduction target, having emitted 401 million tons in 2022, with a 2030 goal of 349 million.
But civil-society organizations in South America’s third-largest economy find it difficult to track progress or verify the figures.
“The reliable source should be the emissions inventory; otherwise, it’s very hard to access information. When the uncertainty is so great, monitoring becomes extremely difficult. We’re not on the right path toward the goal, and there are no policies that encourage emission reductions,” said Camila Mercure, Climate Policy Coordinator at the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation (FARN), speaking to IPS from Buenos Aires.
Between 1990 and 2022, Argentina’s emissions rose 46%. In 2022, energy generation and use accounted for 50%, agriculture and livestock 25%, land use and land-use change (LUCC, a deforestation indicator) 13%, and waste and industrial processes 6% each.
To meet its NDC, Argentina developed an adaptation and mitigation plan with 250 measures and an estimated funding need of $180.3 billion for 169 actions—but without specifying the amounts for the remainder.
A 2024 progress report on the plan revealed that most policies had not been implemented and that information on others was unavailable.
CAT rated Argentina’s 2022 NDC as “critically insufficient” and projected that its 2022 emission levels implied a 15% rise by 2030—meaning it would miss its own voluntary reduction target. The country is expected to present an updated NDC before COP30 opens.
Meanwhile, Chile—the region’s fifth-largest economy—has been among Latin America’s most ambitious countries in setting NDC targets, though its latest goals show some backsliding.
In 2022, Chile emitted 111 million tons of greenhouse gases, up 135% from 1990 and 7% since 2020. Energy contributed 50%, LUCC 33%, and agriculture, waste, and industry 5% each.
Chile’s 2020 NDC set a 2030 target of 95 million tons, while its new policy, presented last September, lowered the goal to below 90 million by 2035.
CAT rated this “almost sufficient” compared to the Paris Agreement but warned that the gap between targets had widened—from 10 million tons in 2030 to 22 million in 2035—indicating a weakening of ambition.
Finally, Colombia, the region’s fourth-largest economy, emitted 280 million tons in 2021, a 25.8% increase compared to 1990. LUCC accounted for 34.5%, energy 32.7%, and agriculture 20.7%.
In its updated NDC from September, Colombia increased its ambition, setting an emissions limit of 155–161 million tons by 2035, down from the 169-million target for 2030 in its previous policy. However, the scope and implementation path remain unclear. CAT deemed its previous NDC “insufficient” and has not yet assessed the new one.
All the countries discussed have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050—meaning total greenhouse-gas output equals what is removed through carbon sinks such as forests and mangroves or offset via technology.
Recent reports warn that NDCs remain inadequate for the 1.5°C goal. For instance, the Global Stocktake on Paris Agreement progress noted that advancement is slow and that the world is off course from the targets set in the accord.
More of the Same?
Brazilian expert Tsai stresses the need for binding international commitments to phase out oil, gas, and coal, along with national measures to reduce emissions—such as promoting biofuels derived from waste and restoring degraded pasturelands.
“According to our estimates, there is enough land to produce biofuels that could decarbonize Brazil. It’s a quick way to shift the emissions landscape. But we need to move toward more efficient technologies—sugarcane and soy ethanol aren’t the best options. Still, we’ll probably see the same as in previous summits; it’s a hard situation to change,” the expert said.
For Argentina’s Mercure, the main obstacle is the lack of priority given to climate issues.
“There’s a struggle to maintain the current model based on fossil-fuel use. The situation is quite complex. When it comes to emission reductions, the goals and commitments end up being ambitious on paper but lack roadmaps to reach the targets. The question is: what path do we take to push for a better one?” she reflected.
With extreme disasters such as powerful hurricanes intensifying and the 1.5-degree threshold on the brink of collapse, COP30 is unlikely to deliver a real change of course, especially in light of the current, NDC updates.
First published in Spanish by IPS and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.