When You See a Fellow Dictator Fall Update Your Exit Plan
authoritarians now have little choice but to seek refuge in Putin’s land
By Yoani Sanchez* (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – The big news at the end of this year is, without a doubt, the flight of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Moscow. The collapse of his regime, which opens up a range of possibilities and fears regarding the political direction Damascus will take, also refreshes lessons about tyrants that, though familiar, must continue to be repeated and considered. Like a paper tiger, the once-ferocious leader fled with his family, abandoned his officials to their fate, and deserted his army. From this part of the world, more than one authoritarian ruler must be having nightmares since then.
Until just a few weeks ago, he seemed like a man solidly entrenched in power, having managed to withstand a long civil war and was beginning to be reintegrated into international organizations like the Arab League. Yet, in just a few days, he went from reigning in his palaces to escaping on a plane with his family and ending up in Moscow. His military hastily shed their uniforms, leaving them discarded in the streets. The guards at the infamous Sednaya prison fled, and the Baath Party he led suspended all its activities “until further notice.” The entire apparatus of control and coercion of the autocrat collapsed, despite the population’s fear and his support from Russia.
On this side of the Atlantic, images of the Syrian people entering the lavishly decorated chambers where al-Assad lived and opening the cells packed with dissidents must have disrupted the peace of more than a few. For some time now, the disreputable regimes of Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba have also been eager to show their closeness to the Kremlin. They appear in photos alongside officials, ministers, and military personnel under Vladimir Putin’s command, partly to send the message that the fierce Russian bear stands behind them. They use their proximity and political alignment with Moscow as a warning of their invulnerability and strength.
However, along with al-Assad, the big loser in Syria has been none other than Russia, which, bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine, was unable to defend its ally in Damascus. Neither the naval base in Tartus nor the planes with pilots sent by Putin prevented the fall of a dynasty that stripped its people of freedom for more than half a century. Diplomatic complicity between Moscow and Damascus, showcased in international forums, also failed to protect it. In just a few days, all of that became mere words, gestures, and history.
For a 93-year-old like Raul Castro, who maintained ties of collaboration and complicity first with Hafez al-Assad and later with his son, managing this turn of events must be particularly challenging. The world he once knew no longer exists: the socialist bloc imploded, the Berlin Wall fell, political allies have lost power one by one or died in obscurity, and more than one of his close comrades has been swept away by the momentum of their own people. To make matters worse, Moscow no longer seems to inspire the fear it once did and is no longer capable of protecting its cohorts. Fellow authoritarian travelers now have little choice but to seek refuge in Putin’s land.
*First published in Spanish by 14ymedio and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.