What Could a New Trump Presidency Mean for Cubans?

Foto: Gage Skidmore (Imagen de archivo)

By El Toque

HAVANA TIMES – The election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was decided in the early hours (local time) of November 6, 2024. Trump won the “swing states” of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, giving him the necessary electoral votes to gain the presidency.

He managed to flip some states that had contributed to Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. The new president-elect exceeded the predictions of almost all polls and achieved significant numbers among Latino voters. He is the first Republican president in 20 years to win the popular vote.

The election saw strong voter turnout, according to preliminary data. There were no major incidents at the polls, except for a couple of bomb threats labeled “not credible” by authorities. Reportedly, these alleged threats originated from Russian sources.

Trump cast his vote around noon on the 5th in Florida. The Republican candidate stated at the time that he felt confident about the election outcome. Harris, on her part, voted by mail before November 5.

In addition to electing the next president and vice president of the United States, this election determined American citizens’ representatives in the Senate and Congress. In some states, like Florida, people also voted on issues like permitting recreational marijuana use and limiting state interference in abortion rights.

The vote cast yesterday was only the first step for Trump to assume the presidency on January 20, 2025. In December 2024, the electors or delegates (members of the Electoral College) will cast their votes, which will definitively determine who will be president. Thus, while the popular vote is important, it is not the final step in the process; the final decision rests with the electors. In early January of the year following the election, Congress counts the electoral votes. January 20 is Inauguration Day.

What Could This Result Mean for Cubans?

Neither candidate provided much detail during their campaigns about their plans concerning Cuba. However, some of their representatives did offer information to the press.

Jaime Florez, one of Trump’s spokespersons for the Latino community in the United States, told Martí Noticias that the president’s policy would be consistent with the one he maintained during his previous administration, between 2017 and 2020. Florez recalled that Trump reversed some policies from Barack Obama’s “thaw” with Cuba and said the Republican would demand the release of political prisoners and the holding of free elections on the island.

Regarding immigration, Trump stated that, if he won, he would eliminate the humanitarian parole program and the CBP One app, which facilitates asylum appointments at the southwestern US border. These two policies, implemented and expanded for Cubans in January 2023, have benefited over 200,000 Cuban nationals, according to estimates. Trump also promised to deport millions of undocumented migrants.

It remains to be seen if Donald Trump will fulfill his campaign promises. Experts say that carrying out a mass deportation of that scale would not be easy. The latest figures indicate there are about 11 million undocumented migrants in the country.

According to Christopher Sabatini, a senior researcher for Latin America at Chatham House, the Cuban situation is not a priority for Washington. Sabatini argued that there are currently foreign policy issues far above the island: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East, and Venezuela, among the main ones.

Before the election, the Cuban government expressed that it had no preference for either candidate. So far, neither the Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel nor other high-ranking regime officials have publicly commented on the outcome.

First published in Spanish by El Toque and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.

Read more from Cuba here on Havana Times.

4 thoughts on “What Could a New Trump Presidency Mean for Cubans?

  • Trump will absolutely get rid of the humanitarian parole program. It is on his list of things to do on day one! He has even gone so far as to say that this massive deportation of immigrants will INCLUDE Cubans (and other parolees) who have not cemented their paperwork! So, if you are Cuban and you have not received your official paperwork of residency you absolutely could be deported according to what Trump and his immigration Tzar are saying! So, get ready!!

  • one more time, a writer writes INCORRECT MISINFORMATION.

    it is NOT TRUE that there are 11 million ‘undocumented immigrants’ or ‘illegal immigrants’ in usa.

    the definition of undocumented or illegal means they were smuggled in illegally, by walking in through a tunnel, by arriving on a boat, by climbing a fence – and by not reporting themselves to official usa CPB or DHS personnel. yes some have entered this way, but the MAJORITY merely took advantage of the Biden ‘open border’ policy. When they arrived at a land border crossing, they turned themselves into official usa CBP or DHS personnel. They were taken to an official usa immigration detention center, where they were minimally vetted. They were then given a LEGAL I-94 DATABASE entry in the federal immigrant database, they were mostly released on their own recognicanse, and they were given cour dates in a LEGAL FEDERAL IMMIGRATION COURT ROOM, where most were helped along their path to LEGAL immigration proceedings. so please, stop the false retoric of brainwashing everyone to think that all immigrants are ILLEGAL and UNDOCUMENTED – YOU ARE JUST SPREADING NEGATIVE BIASED BRAINWASHING.

  • Trump stance on abortion for teen girls that are victims of SA will result in Canada not having space for other foreign people in my opinion
    I believe he will try to close the border except for highly skilled higher wage foreign workers but still allowing in foreign young women who want marry and have children to a legal resident ( man) in the U S . I also believe over 5 million people will end up.lraving the U S in the next 2 years,( many by deportation)
    This will be very bad for the people in Cuba or those trying to go to the U S

  • As has been on full display recently, Cuba is extremely vulnerable to the availability or lack thereof of fuel to power its energy grid. Trump’s administration can easily turn the screws on Cuba simply by putting pressure on Cuba’s supply of petroleum imports. The Castro dictatorship should be very worried. Instead, it appears that Diaz-Canel prefers to appear indifferent. Good luck with that.

Comments are closed.