Consequences of Trump’s Ending Temporary Protective Status
For migrants protected under the Temporary Protected Status program, this represents immediate deportation. Enforcing a return to Nicaragua is inconsistent with the declarations of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
By Manuel Orozco (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – It’s surprising that many people expected preferential immigration treatment from the new government presided over by Donald Trump, despite his electoral promises to deport millions of migrants.
However, in truth, the recent suspension of Temporary Protected Status for Hondurans and Nicaraguans is consistent with Trump’s declared agenda of eliminating as many as possible of the temporary residency permits for foreigners. Of the estimated 900,000 people who were protected under TPS, only a few countries will still be eligible for the program, chief among them El Salvador.
This decision joins other forms of immigration control including the cancellation of Humanitarian Parole that affects a nearly equal-sized contingent of 900,000 people. Like TPS, most of them come from countries in political crisis who run high risks if forced to return to their countries of origin. Other recent measures include controls and reduction of visas for university studies, and restrictions on visas to visit several countries.
In addition to these two suspended programs, other measures include controls and reductions in university student visas, and restrictions on visas for visitors to several countries.
This measure is accompanied by a strategy of deportation of foreigners, supposedly following a roadmap that begins with deportations of people with criminal records who remained in the country after serving their sentences, and then the deportation of people who already have a deportation order.
It should be kept in mind that, of the more than 13 million migrants in irregular status, 7.5 million have deportation cases pending in the courts. Of those, 3.9 million already have deportation orders.
To date, the number of deportees in 2025 amounts to less than 120,000. However, these deportations are occurring to people who have been living in the United States for several years, if not decades. In other words, they are not people who were detained and deported upon trying to cross the border, but are deportations effected directly from the US territory.
The impact on Nicaraguan with TPS status
Apart from the impact of canceling humanitarian parole – potentially meaning the return of 60,000 Nicaraguans – the measure to cancel TPS affects 5,000 Nicaraguans and 54,000 Hondurans.
The effects represent a radical alteration in the lives of these people.
In both cases, these citizens have lived under TPS for more than 25 years. While1100 Nicaraguans and 24,000 Hondurans succeeded in becoming permanent residents, the rest – whose protection will end in September – also have established roots in the United States, with family obligations that include children in school or college, stable tax-contributing jobs, home mortgages, and other investments in the United States. Many of these people are approaching their sixties, already nearing retirement.
Returning to Nicaragua means psychosocial disruption as well as a risk to their lives. Nicaragua today is a police state where democracy is criminalized, citizens are denied their civil and political rights, the State institutions have been hijacked for the benefit of the Ortega-Murillo family, the use of violence in the name of the State goes unpunished (including allowing extrajudicial executions outside the territory), censorship and disinformation are rampant, and the regime prioritizes its alliances with outlaw states over the welfare of its people.
The measure is completely inconsistent with past declarations from the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself, that the Ortega-Murillo regime leaders are enemies of humanity and that legal security is nonexistent since the concentration of political power includes the country’s justice system, which is in the hands of the dictators.
From a strictly economic perspective, these people will be returning to their countries at an age in which they face huge competitive limitations to obtaining jobs. In addition, salaries in Nicaragua are 15 times less than those of the United States, leaving them unable to fulfil their financial obligations. Given this reality, it’s ingenuous to advise someone to organize their finances before leaving.
Many of these people face high risks of being subjected to human rights violations, since many are individuals who oppose the prevailing dictatorship in Nicaragua.
What lies ahead…
This is not the first time this situation has occurred. But now it is more complicated and painful because it’s accompanied by a punitive philosophy aimed at generating fear. The cancellation of the TPS may still face a lawsuit claiming the inconsistency between the conditions set forth by the government and the prevailing reality in the destination country. However, in the face of a Supreme Court that has already validated the Executive branch’s discretionary power over humanitarian relief, it remains to be seen whether the claims of the lack of coherent procedure in relation to TPS have merit.
It’s difficult to predict what people will do in this situation. However, based on past situations, many migrants may opt to adjust their status, if possible (through regularization of adult children). Others will probably consider the risk of staying in the shadows and moving to the ‘illegal’, or ‘undocumented’ side – living with the constant threat of deportation, changing their modus vivendi, looking for another job.
The reality of this panorama is very difficult, because it is not economically and humanly possible for people who have been living legally in the United States for more than two decades to leave and rebuild their lives with 60 days’ notice. It is a banishment, and the leaders of both parties share the responsibility for a system that allowed this temporary status to be extended for decades, without offering an alternative path and addressing the causes of migration as essentially a foreign policy problem.
Public opinion is beginning to understand that Executive actions can be more flexible, and the Budget Act debate in Congress showed that support for the Executive is shifting. The fundamental mission is to build on the philosophy of conservative compassion promoted by former President George Bush, and to show that the TPS community, including many under humanitarian relief, are an added value and not a burden to the country.
First published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.