The Dollar Reaches 400 Cuban Pesos in the Informal Market
HAVANA TIMES – The price of the US dollar (USD) in Cuba’s informal market reached the 400 Cuban pesos (CUP) mark on Monday, August 11, 2025, according to the reference rate published by El Toque. This new milestone comes amid a shortage of foreign currency and domestically produced goods, coupled with high demand for dollars and other foreign currencies.
This is the highest value recorded since El Toque began publishing its reference exchange rates in 2021. The figure also has no precedent in other crisis peaks, such as during the so-called “Special Period” of the 1990s, when the maximum reached was 150 pesos per dollar.
The euro, another currency used in Cuba’s informal exchange market, remains at 445 CUP, a record price reached the previous week. Meanwhile, the “magnetic currency” (MLC)—a virtual currency created by the Cuban government whose reference value was the USD—continues its downward trend and, as of Monday, August 11, 2025, is trading at 207 CUP.
The representative informal market rate (TRMI) published by El Toque shows reference values calculated from the median of amounts listed in buy-and-sell currency ads posted in social media groups and classified ad sites.
Although Cuba’s officialdom has run campaigns to undermine trust in the TRMI, several experts and the prestigious academic journal Applied Economics (United Kingdom) have validated the methodology developed to calculate it.
Official rates are far removed from the reality of the informal market. Several state-run companies offer their services in foreign currency to emigrants and foreigners at a rate of 1 USD for 24 CUP. Meanwhile, banks and Casas de Cambio (Cadeca) buy dollars from the public at 120 pesos each.
The shortage of foreign currency in the economy and the devaluation of the Cuban peso; the dependence of MSMEs on the informal currency market to obtain dollars for imports; the emigration of recent years and the capital flight associated with it; the introduction of dollar-denominated cards and stores in the country; and the sustained collapse of the Cuban economy are some of the factors explaining the constant rise of the dollar in Cuba.
When Will the Official “Floating Rate” Arrive?
In December 2024, during the sessions of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz announced the approval of a floating exchange rate to be implemented in 2025. According to the official, the measure aimed to recover remittance revenues.
“Today, the exchange rate does not encourage capturing remittances. In fact, it is not in people’s interest that, if they need pesos, to receive money through the banking system, since they would get 120 pesos for 1 USD. However, in the informal market they could get 320 pesos per USD,” Marrero said, referring to the reference price at that time.
More than six months later, however, the reorganization of the Cuban currency market remains pending, while hard currencies like the dollar and the euro continue trading informally at record prices.
In December 2024, Cuban economist Pavel Vidal warned that a floating exchange rate for retail foreign currency-to-peso transactions is uncharted territory for Cuba. Based on what has been announced, this system would operate through Cadecas and banks and would represent the first time the Cuban economy adopts a floating rate that would be updated daily.
In June 2025, during the ninth Congress of the National Association of Economists and Accountants, the head of the Ministry of Economy and Planning, Joaquin Alonso Vasquez, lowered expectations set by Prime Minister Marrero’s announcement.
Alonso’s statements revealed the authorities’ caution and gave clues as to why the “floating” rate has not been implemented. The minister said that although “alternatives are being analyzed,” the Cuban government must “minimize risks.”
“We already have defined actions for each stage, but the risk is high. Any measure in this area must ensure that the exchange rate does not spiral out of control—something very difficult in a context of foreign currency scarcity and low availability of consumer goods,” Alonso stated.
In doing so, the high-ranking official tacitly admitted that the root cause of the currency crisis is the lack of production and supply of goods in the country.
First published in Spanish by El Toque and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.
I agree with the criticism expressed by the commentator ‘Janis’. In addition, the pensioners in Cuba are offended by the Castro regime’s leadership spokespeople who are publicly declaring the doubling of the pension as if it will solve the financial problems faced by the pensioners. Their fear is that nothing else will be done by government to ease their struggles. Handing a man, whose house is on fire, a cup of water and then claiming that you rescued him can be worse than if you had done nothing at all.
It is painfully difficult for those who don’t have dollars. And raising the retirement money from 1,500 pesos to 3,000 pesos only creates more inflation, rather than continue to bring prices down.