Cuba Gov. Tells Maduro He Can’t Count on Its Support

neither military nor as a refuge

By El Toque

HAVANA TIMES – Venezuelan ruler Nicolas Maduro recently received bad news when he asked for help from his Cuban partners. Sources close to the Venezuelan government said that, in mid-October 2025, the dictator met in Caracas with Cuban advisers to discuss possible military or logistical support from Havana amid the growing presence of US forces near Venezuelan shores. The revelation came from the weekly Political Risk Report by Caracas Consulting, to which El Toque had access.

Caracas Consulting states that its reports are prepared by professionals in fields such as journalism, law, and finance. The internal information is gathered by researchers working on the ground, both inside the government and within the opposition. The firm’s work is often cited by academics, correspondents, and major media outlets.

According to those sources, the Cubans urged Maduro to “resist the U.S. escalation” and buy time by mobilizing the few international allies he still has. However, Havana was categorical: Cuba will not provide any kind of military assistance to Venezuela, arguing that doing so would put the island’s own security at risk.

The refusal reportedly fell like a bucket of cold water on Maduro’s inner circle and within Venezuelan intelligence services, which had expected a firmer show of support from Caracas’s historic ally. Even so, the president chose to remain calm, aware that a break with Cuba could close the door on a possible escape or future refuge on the Caribbean island.

According to the sources, the Cubans also cooled down the idea that Maduro could settle in Cuba long-term if his regime collapses, considering that his presence might prove “inconvenient” for Havana.

Caracas Consulting added that the Cuban advisers also recommended launching an international media offensive, encouraging Maduro to seek out—and even fund—intellectuals and public figures willing to reject a possible US military action.

In an interview with journalist Mehdi Hasan in September 2025, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernandez de Cossío flatly dismissed any possibility that Cuba would engage in armed conflict with the United States to defend Maduro. According to Fernandez de Cossío, Havana’s official stance in the event of a US offensive against Venezuela would be limited to providing political backing to Caracas, but with no military involvement whatsoever. “We are not going to go to war with the United States,” he said when pressed by the journalist on whether the Cuban regime would intervene directly in the event of an attack.

Cuban intelligence services, which weeks earlier had claimed that Washington was merely “bluffing,” have revised their assessment, according to the report. They now warn that the Pentagon is preparing operations targeting senior regime officials and that the United States has already alerted several Caribbean nations to block the transfer of Venezuelan gold and other resources to their territories under threat of sanctions.

Faced with this scenario, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez is said to have ordered the armed forces to prepare to defend the country through “nonconventional” means, including sabotage and guerrilla warfare tactics.

Analysts consulted in the report said that instruction amounts to an admission that Venezuela’s armed forces lack the capacity to protect airports, ports, and other strategic infrastructure. Even the recent release of an official video showing the evacuation of the Francisco de Miranda Air Base, in the very heart of Caracas, has been interpreted as an implicit acknowledgment of this weakness.

Caracas Consulting reported that the meeting between Maduro and the Cubans took place on October 12, 2025, just hours before the Spanish newspaper El País published an article claiming that Chavismo is not considering negotiating its exit from power and would rather resist US pressure.

However, on October 16, El Nuevo Herald reported that Maduro had asked the Trump administration to negotiate his withdrawal from power twice this year. The proposed transition would leave current Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in charge, assuming the presidency within three years. Under that plan, Maduro would remain in Venezuela with security guarantees. In the second proposal, retired General Miguel Rodriguez Torres would oversee the transition, while the current dictator would seek exile in Qatar or Turkey. Both offers—made through Trump adviser Ric Grenell—were rejected. Neither included members of the opposition nor María Corina Machado.

In addition, on October 10, 2025, The New York Times reported that Maduro had offered the United States Venezuelan oil and natural resources in exchange for remaining in power.

According to the report reviewed, Maduro’s most effective strategy has been to drag out political crises and prolong them over time—and that is what he has attempted with his transition proposals.

So far, the Venezuelan government has denied reports of any negotiations. Regarding the meeting with Cuban advisers mentioned by Caracas Consulting, no public references have been found.

Caracas Consulting is the consulting division of Caracas Chronicles LLC, a firm founded in 2002 that produces the English-language news and analysis site Caracas Chronicles.

Through Caracas Consulting, the company offers two main services: a weekly report—the Political Risk Report—providing in-depth analysis of Venezuela’s political situation for executives and investors with interests in the country, and customized consulting services for international companies that need to understand the complexities of the Venezuelan market.

First published in Spanish by El Toque and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.

Read more from Cuba here on Havana Times.