Cuba’s Promised Floating Exchange Rate Still Pending
Don’t expect it in the near future.
HAVANA TIMES – The announcement made on November 13, 2025, regarding the discussion of the Government Program to reinvigorate the Cuban economy — within the structures of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) and other social organizations, between November and December — indirectly but unmistakably confirms that there will be no official floating exchange rate before the end of the year.
This process, presented as a consultation “to improve economic measures,” in fact implies that no substantial transformations will be applied to the national economy before 2026.
The decision represents yet another postponement in the implementation of the currency-related measures promised by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, who, in December 2024 during that year’s last session of the National Assembly, had announced the imminent creation of a floating-rate exchange market for 2025.
A year of unfulfilled promises
In July 2025, Marrero again insisted that the new exchange market would begin operating “in the second half of the year,” with the goal of reducing excess money in circulation and bringing the official rate closer to values in the informal market.
However, four months later, the measure has not materialized, and the Cuban peso continues to depreciate on the informal foreign exchange market.
This delay shows that the Government has not managed to create the macroeconomic or institutional conditions necessary to sustain a truly flexible exchange-rate regime.
Cuban economist Mauricio de Miranda recently argued in a public analysis of the Government Program that “the exchange-rate issue is essential to overcoming macroeconomic instability,” but noted that the government’s own program acknowledged that “the Cuban economy does not currently have the conditions to move toward a unified exchange-rate scheme.”
Economist Pavel Vidal noted the main challenge of this floating rate will be establishing transparent adjustment mechanisms.
“In Cuba, where the State maintains a monopoly over the formal exchange market, it will be essential to define clear and transparent criteria. The rules used to move the rate will have a direct impact on user confidence and on the system’s stability,” he told El Toque in January of this year.
Vidal maintained then that although the operational details of the new market announced by the Government were still unknown, its success would depend on five factors: transparency in setting the rate, institutional credibility, liquidity in the banking system, the relationship between the formal and informal markets, and the Central Bank’s capacity to manage exchange-rate volatility.
The postponement of the Program’s discussion leaves little room for any immediate application of a floating rate in Cuba. Even if partial regulations were to be published in the Official Gazette, no substantial change in the exchange-rate regime is expected for the remainder of 2025, the corporate services firm AUGE warned on its Telegram channel.
The delay also confirms the Government’s difficulties in executing its own economic roadmap.
First published in Spanish by El Toque and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.