Cuba: The Possible, Impossible, Desirable & Undesirable

Erasmo Calzadilla

HAVANA TIMES — The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (based in Miami) recently ended its annual event. The first subject they dealt with this year was the shortage of foreign exchange and energy in our country due to the collapse of the Venezuelan economy.

The idea that was deduced from this and past meetings can be summarized in the following recommendation: Cuba should make haste and establish open economic policies so that it can insert itself into the global market economy.

The different paths of Cuba. Illustration by Carlos

Is this the only option?

Of course it isn’t. The crisis we’re experiencing has opened up a range of different possibilities, some worn out to death, others completely new.

I’ve spent my whole life hearing about Capitalism’s imminent and definitive collapse. I’m suspicious of alarmists but I have the feeling that this time they might be right. After having grown so much, the hyper-productive machine is hitting a brick wall with the biophysicial limits of our planet and it’s started to drown in its own shit. Because of this small problem, development has come to a halt and the system will have metamorphosize or die.

Senile Capitalism is the backdrop against which we must situate Cuba’s possible destinies. Elites on both sides of the Florida Strait have managed to spread the cheerful hope that we will become a “normal” prosperous country. Supposing that this was what we wanted, we’re already out of time because the global economy isn’t picking up and it’s about to face very difficult times.

Let’s ignore this mental masturbation and consider Cuba’s future more seriously. What are our real options?

I’m going to divide them into “Known Evils” and “Good Ideas yet to know”

Among the known evils, there are two picturesque ones that stand out, which are the following:

  • Returning to what we once were socially and politically speaking before the 20th century: A colony with all of the evil ways that this implied.
  • Communism’s extremist gridlock. Clear signs were given at the last PCC Congress that the upper echelons were considering this fate. Or were they just acting?

These Known Evils are unwanted attractors to the ones we want to return to in the worst case scenario: if we put all of our eggs in the same rotten basket; if we direct our resources to fanciful development projects which only put us in more debt and ruin us financially; if our politicians’ stubbornness and narrow-mindedness results in social chaos…

Now let’s take a look at the “Good Ideas yet to know”

Seeing where this suspended development route is taking us and considering how terrible it would be to return to a Communist or colonial past, we don’t have any other choice but to think, debate, discuss and create in the face of the big question:

“How do we want to pass the storm?”

Crouching down under a rock; in the shadow of our Godfather to the north; or making the most of this chaos to try and organize a sound human society?

I’m ambitious, I want this latter option. Focussing all of our efforts on achieving this would bring out the best in the Cuban people.

Castro and his followers have been swindling all of Cuba’s riches and have kidnapped the country. However, they’ve also proven that the miracle of keeping this boat afloat is possible (and even, achieving amazing social feats) without giving in to the pressures of Capital too much. I think it’s a good starting point to try and do something truly different, while the Titanic sinks.

Erasmo Calzadilla

Erasmo Calzadilla: I find it difficult to introduce myself in public. I've tried many times but it doesn’t flow. I’m more less how I appear in my posts, add some unpresentable qualities and stir; that should do for a first approach. If you want to dig a little deeper, ask me for an appointment and wait for a reply.

13 thoughts on “Cuba: The Possible, Impossible, Desirable & Undesirable

  • Cuba lacks the three basic ingredients to growth. A vibrant workforce, access to capital, an expanding market. Until these three return to a measurable degree, Cuba, at BEST, will continue to just survive. The global economy is facing different challenges. Some players will indeed improve and even accelerate while others will continue to decline. Overall, worldwide growth will continue, albeit sluggishly. There is a REAL analysis to support this theory. This is no the place to present it.

  • It would be interesting if Erasmo included the figures for Cuba’s contribution to world trade.

  • I am not trying to prove that capitalism’s collapse is coming.
    I take the deceleration of the global economic system as a fact, and I follow those that think it will not recover but will get worse. And, of course, I know it is impossible to prove such a difficult matter even with the help of the full library.

    But it is a solid theory and is my starting point. The challenge is to think the Cuban’s destiny in the middle of declining world (in the economic, energetic, environmental and other areas).

    Most of Cuban economic and social thinkers believe the global economy will improve and will accelerate again. And they think it by inertia, without a real analysis that supports their ideas. Do you?

  • Read my comment again. I’m not trying to prove anything. That was his job. I’m critical of Erasmo’s lack of proof. His biases are obvious and therefore not necessary to “prove”. His conclusions, born of his biases and not of fact, are therefore unsubstantiated.

  • Erasmo is well within his right to think. As I am within my right to criticize that thinking or the lack thereof.

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