Does Cuba have a Real Government Program for the Economy?
or is it just for speeches?
HAVANA TIMES – On July 5, 2025, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, also the country’s president, declared in his closing speech of the 10th Plenary Session of the Central Committee: “We reaffirm here that the most important task to be undertaken by the Party is ensuring the Government Program to eliminate distortions and relaunch the economy.”
The statement that work will be done to “eliminate distortions and relaunch the economy” is vague. What distortions? How will the economy be relaunched? Who has been responsible for the policy mistakes that led to this situation? The lack of detail regarding concrete measures reinforces the impression that this is more a rhetorical disguise than a solid, well-grounded proposal that truly addresses the key issues.
The supposed Government Program, which according to state media will be the “center of debate” during the upcoming sessions of the Cuban Parliament starting on July 14, 2025, has yet to be made public in detail. No clear information has been provided regarding its objectives, strategies, or methodologies.
In light of this “discussion” of the “political strategy” in the National Assembly, experts warn that previous government proposals to solve Cuba’s most serious economic problems have failed to produce results. This new plan may likewise fail to address the fundamental systemic and structural problems of the economy, such as the inefficiency of the state sector, the absence of a sustainable economic model that supports private investment, and the need for productive diversification.
The lack of a comprehensive approach to these issues could result in superficial measures that fail to generate deep or lasting change.
Why Do Doubts Persist About the “Government Program to Eliminate Distortions”?
Economist Pedro Monreal warned on social media that the program “to correct distortions and relaunch the economy,” to be discussed during the July session of the National Assembly, consists of disconnected palliatives used due to the political inability to undertake a rational transformation of the economic system.
“The upcoming parliamentary analysis of the ‘program to correct distortions and relaunch the economy’ will likely follow the path of previous incomplete evaluations and abundant propaganda, and above all, with disconnected and contradictory ‘solutions,’” Monreal concluded.
Meanwhile, Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, PhD in International Economics and Development, commented on social media following Díaz-Canel’s headline-grabbing statement in Cuban state media:
“Can someone tell me what the ‘Government Program to eliminate distortions and relaunch the economy’ is? Where is it published? What are its real objectives, beyond wishful thinking? What are the specific measures that are part of this program? There was talk earlier of a Macroeconomic Stabilization Program and we never learned anything about that either.”
This precedent adds further skepticism regarding the Government’s ability to implement an effective economic plan.
The Cuban economist also highlighted the lack of clarity on how production will be increased in key sectors such as agriculture and industry and questioned the government’s handling of social problems like accumulated garbage in the streets and the collapse of the construction sector.
Miranda warns that Cuban authorities have not explained how they intend to reduce the fiscal deficit or make the monetary system function properly—so that the exchange rate reflects market realities and not an arbitrary number imposed by those in power.
“When will the country’s leadership be capable of taking responsibility for the failed economic policies they have adopted—policies whose design flaws have long been flagged by various experts from diverse schools of economic and political thought?” he asked.
Other Broken Promises: What Went Wrong in Previous Attempts to “Stabilize” the Cuban Economy?
Over the years, the Cuban government has presented multiple “stabilization” attempts that have completely failed.
The Macroeconomic Stabilization Program, intended to control inflation and stabilize the economy, ended up being seen as an incomplete set of measures with no clear follow-up. Experts pointed to the lack of coherence and the absence of structural policies addressing key issues such as low productivity, dependence on tourism, and inefficiency in the state-run system.
Another attempt, the National Development Plan through 2030, presented in April 2016 as a framework for economic modernization, has turned out to be full of empty promises. Nearly a decade later, no tangible results have materialized, and the country continues to face the same structural problems.
Another significant example is the so-called “Tarea Ordenamiento” (Reordering Task reforms). In 2021, the government implemented a currency unification process to simplify the dual monetary system (CUP and CUC), but this reform was not accompanied by complementary measures to support the productive sectors. The result was a surge in inflation and economic dislocation, clearly revealing that the reform lacked a support plan capable of generating a positive impact on the productive economy.
Cuban-American economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago has repeatedly pointed out that Cuba’s economic policies remain inefficient due to the absence of structural reforms and the state’s dominance in key areas. He has argued that the centralized economic control are the main obstacles to sustainable development.
According to economist Pedro Monreal, “the Cuban economy is in a state of multi-organ failure.” The problem is not about “stimulating” the economy, he argues, but about undertaking structural transformation—yet the “brake” is political.
Monreal has warned about Cuba’s deepening deindustrialization in the post-reordering era: production in 2024 was lower than it was 40 years ago, and even below the “bottom” levels seen during the 1990s Special Period crisis.
He also highlights the chronically distorted national investment model centered on tourism and the ruin of Cuban agriculture, “the most alarming component of Cuba’s structural crisis, the biggest failure of government economic policy, a key factor in massive impoverishment, and a cause of political unrest.”
These broken promises result not only in the absence of economic growth, but also in direct harm to Cubans’ daily lives. Chronic shortages of basic goods and services, mass emigration of professionals, and a healthcare and education system increasingly affected by resource shortages are clear symptoms of the disconnect between promises and reality.
Why the Official Narrative Fails to Convince
The claim to “eliminate distortions and relaunch the economy” is part of an official narrative that has been repeated almost mechanically by government officials, spokespeople, and Cuban state media. However, despite its frequent appearance in speeches and press releases, a clear explanation is never given about the structural causes of the country’s economic crisis—nor are effective short-term measures proposed to address core issues.
Instead of acknowledging systemic dysfunctions, such as state inefficiency, centralized planning, and low productivity, the discourse sticks to vague generalities that seem more like an attempt to calm the public than a realistic plan for overcoming the crisis.
Despite repeated announcements in official forums, the government’s declarations never go beyond empty promises. This pattern of unfulfilled commitments is generating increasing mistrust among both citizens and experts, who—like the economists cited here—view these proposals as a continuation of past failed policies, incapable of addressing the roots of Cuba’s economic problems.
First published in Spanish by El Toque and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.
Diaz-Canel speaks falsely when he says “We reaffirm here that the most important task to be undertaken by the Party is ensuring the Government Program to eliminate distortions and relaunch the economy.” The Cuban government’s #1 priority remains preservation of the political structure established in 1959. Everything else, including the welfare of the Cuban citizens, is secondary to that continuity.
I call B.S. These government programs with high fallutin’ names are primarily designed to buy the regime some time. Time for what, you ask? Time until the next ‘sugar daddy’ foreign country can swoop in and save the day. Russia, these days, is otherwise focused on Ukraine. Venezuela can afford to send a few boxes of this or that from time to time. And México? They made a big deal of sending 400K barrels of oil a few months ago. That’s less than one day’s consumption in Cuba! Then there’s China, they love to make loans (see Belt and Road program) but are less willing to give anything away for free. How about India, Brazil and South Africa? These are the founding countries of the BRICS alliance. Cuba just became an associate member of this economic alliance. Don’t hold your breath waiting for these countries to step up either. So, it’s clear that this latest snake oil elixir is nothing more than words in a speech.