Venezuelans Vote Sunday on the Verge of Political Change
HAVANA TIMES – Venezuela stands at the threshold of a potential political shift, with a presidential election on Sunday, July 28th, determining the end or continuation beyond 2030 of the populist, left-wing, and increasingly authoritarian government that has ruled for a quarter of a century.
President Nicolas Maduro, 61, the heir of the late leader Hugo Chavez, who governed from 1999 to December 2012, seeks re-election for a third term (2025-2031). However, for the first time, the opposition shows a majority in the streets and in polls, favoring their candidate, Edmundo González, 74.
Of ten traditional polling firms, nine attribute a voting intention between 55% and 70% to Gonzalez, only one presents Maduro as the winner (with 52% versus 21% for his opponent), and the other eight candidates —all men— obtain negligible percentages.
“The biggest differences lie in the estimated turnout, but everything suggests it will be very high and reflect what the polls and mobilizations show,” political analyst Carmen Beatriz Fernandez told IPS.
In Maduro’s rallies, there is a greater display of resources, and he has combined promises for each region he visits if re-elected, with performances where he sings, dances, jogs, or drives a bus —his job over 30 years ago— to show he is fit.
Gonzalez, a retired diplomat with a calm demeanor, attended mass events organized by the popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, 56, his main supporter, who draws enthusiastic crowds in her tours and rallies.
Fernandez believes “it is like the awakening of a country that was half asleep and now shows that change is not only desirable but possible through voting, and with an opposition unity…”
Venezuela, with about 28 million inhabitants —7.7 million have emigrated, mostly in the last 10 years, according to United Nations figures— has an electoral roll of 21.3 million potential voters, but all analyses discount at least 4.5 million voters who cannot vote because they are abroad.
Crisis and Change
Beneath the mantle of numbers, the polls —prohibited by electoral legislation a week before the vote—have detected a strong desire for change after years of suffering from the prolonged social and economic crisis, of which migration has been the most visible expression, especially in neighboring countries.
In eight of the last ten years, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lost almost four-fifths, oil production fell to a quarter of what it was in 2013, the value of the currency was eroded, there was hyperinflation for four years (130,000% in 2018), public services collapsed, and salaries are the lowest in Latin America.
The country seems populated with stories like that of Nancy G., 50, a former cook in a restaurant with two adult children and a former government supporter, who migrated to Colombia with her husband and “since things did not go well, we returned and set up a small food stall” at an intersection in eastern Caracas.
But “we lost what we invested there, between people’s low income and cooking gas supply issues; they wouldn’t sell me cylinders because I stopped being a Chavista. I cry for my children, one in Ecuador and the other in Peru. They say that if there are changes, they will return on the 29th,” she told IPS.
Pollsters and analysts agree that amid their suffering, the population feels and expresses a desire for change, explaining the massive turnout in the primary election held by major opposition groups in October 2023, and the marches during the brief campaign for the July 28 election.
“The desire for change is very strong. Especially in the interior, because Caracas is a bubble where some public services like water, electricity, or gasoline supply work moderately, but in the rest of the country, they mark a very deep wound, an invoice that people will settle on July 28,” said Rios.
Analysts agree that any accepted result will bring change.
A clear victory for Maduro would validate his recognition by Washington and other governments that have imposed economic sanctions on him since his unrecognized 2018 election. The government would need to address the immense social debt with new proposals and leaders and ease its treatment of the opposition, including the issue of political prisoners.
An opposition victory would not only end the 25-year rule but also bring a shift toward a market economy, institutional and government program reforms, the release of political prisoners, and international alignment with Western democracies.
Machado, a centerist liberal, won the opposition primary with 92% support but could not register her candidacy due to her disqualification from holding public office. The electoral authority, controlled by Maduro, also rejected other coalition candidates and, at the last minute, allowed Gonzalez, who had registered as a candidate and emerged as the opposition’s hidden card.
Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) control all national powers, with the declared support of the Armed Forces, while the National Electoral Council (CNE), with a pro-government majority, has tilted the balance in favor of the ruling faction.
“The opposition is playing on a very slanted field,” observed Fernandez. “This can be seen in measures to restrict the vote of Venezuelans abroad, to prevent opposition candidates from traveling across the country for campaigning, and in the deployment of advertising resources solely by the government,” she added.
What Will Happen?
Venezuelans vote with machines, and the count is automated. Despite this security feature, fraud allegations dominate the debate —more than campaign proposals— among politicians and activists.
The opposition fears the government might commit fraud at isolated polling stations where opposition observers cannot reach, through a blackout or other measures during vote counting, or with a judicial maneuver to alter the process.
The government accuses the opposition of preparing a scenario with a clandestine vote counting center, fake exit polls, and the support of international media to “cry fraud” as soon as they are sure the results favor Maduro.
These allegations reveal the deep distrust, lack of dialogue, and minimum agreements between contenders, and foreshadow a tough post-election confrontation.
Maduro has said that once his victory is announced, he will act firmly to prevent disturbances. Machado and Gonzalez, also confident of victory, call on voters to remain vigilant at voting centers.
If Gonzalez wins, according to the Venezuelan Constitution, he must wait until January 10, 2025, to take office, with a long transition period and possible negotiations with the Executive, the Psuv-controlled National Assembly, and the pro-government Supreme Court.
An unknown factor for all analysts is the behavior of the Armed Forces, whose top commanders issue statements aligned with the president. Some sources believe mid-level officers would refuse to repress opposition protests if they arise.
Gonzalez and Machado have ruled out in their speeches any intent of a “witch hunt” when they come to power, promising a government of reconciliation and a democratic transition.
The government argues that if the opposition wins, chaos will ensue. “There will be a bloodbath,” Maduro has repeated.
International Spotlights
From Brasilia, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who was an ally of Chavez and Maduro, declared himself “alarmed” by Maduro’s statement about a potential “bloodbath”, saying “an election produces a shower of votes.”
He added, “Maduro has to learn: when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.” Similarly, former Argentine President Alberto Fernandez (2019-2023), who hoped to visit Venezuela to witness the election, expressed his views.
With Lula’s support, Colombian President Gustavo Petro proposed a few months ago that an agreement be reached to recognize the results, with a commitment not to politically eliminate the opponent and ensure a peaceful transition. So far, no results have been seen.
The United States, despite broken diplomatic relations with Caracas, has held very reserved talks and agreements with Maduro’s government while maintaining sanctions on civilian and military authorities and state-owned companies. These agreements are attributed to the Venezuelan government allowing the opposition primary and the participation of the Democratic Unity Platform in the presidential election, though barring Machado.
Maduro’s re-election would be seen as a victory for the leftist governments of Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia in the region, as well as their main extra-regional allies, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey.
A victory for Gonzalez and his government could dismantle the state centered economy and the party’s control of institutions. Center and right-wing political currents in the region would gain a significant stronghold, and Venezuela would return to Washington’s geostrategic framework.
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This report was first published in Spanish by IPS and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.