“The Latino Vote Has Shifted Right Toward Trump in the USA”

Latino Communities in “Swing States”: Polarization, economy over immigration, and an effective anti-immigrant message.

By Carlos F. Chamorro (Confidencial)

HAVANA TIMES – Daniel Alarcón, journalist and writer, is co-director of the podcast series “El Pendulo”(The Pendulum), produced by Radio Ambulante and Telemundo, which has visited Latino communities in five states — Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina — where the Latino vote could be decisive in tipping the balance for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the November 5th election.

On the show Esta Semana, which is broadcast on YouTube due to television censorship in Nicaragua, we spoke with the founder of Radio Ambulante about the predominant issues influencing the Latino vote in this election and why Latino support for Donald Trump is growing despite his anti-immigrant rhetoric and promises of mass deportations.

“For many years, Democrats have assumed that immigration is the main issue for Latinos. This cycle has shown that the economy matters more, and at the national level, among different ethnic groups, including Latinos, there was a sense that the country cannot allow in more immigrants.”

“One of the big surprises has been that when you meet and talk to Latino people, they understand Trump’s fully anti-immigrant rhetoric and feel that Trump isn’t talking about them, but about others,” Alarcon explains.

The result is an opening, a shift, of the Latino vote toward the right and Donald Trump, in a context of maximum polarization, where “Trump’s presence, with so many dangerous tendencies, makes Kamala Harris a powerful candidate.”

The goal of El Pendulo is not to predict the outcome of an election that Alarcon describes as “very close,” but he warns that “if Trump loses, he will not accept the result. He’s already said so publicly; they’re creating chaos with disinformation. Trump’s rhetoric is violent, authoritarian, sowing doubts now to fight the results in the streets or courts, which is obviously very concerning for democracy in the United States.”

Many Latino Votes in the United States

What were the most important findings you discovered about the Latino vote on your tour of Latino communities in the swing states?

The findings are many. The main one, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, is that such a large, broad community, with roots in many different countries, will be very diverse. There isn’t really one Latino vote, but many Latino votes at once.

And in this election, is the main issue driving these communities more related to the economy or immigration?

A surprise for many analysts has been the openness toward the right, toward Donald Trump and what he represents among Latinos. For many years, Democrats assumed immigration was the main issue for Latinos. This cycle has shown that the economy matters more, and nationally, across all ethnic groups, including Latinos, there was a sense that the country can no longer allow in more immigrants.

One of the great surprises has been that when you get to know and talk to Latino people, they listen to Trump’s fully anti-immigrant rhetoric and feel that Trump isn’t referring to them but to others. Although Trump promises to deport large numbers of immigrants, people assume, when we speak to them, that this is for others, for those who have just arrived, not for my family, my friends, or my community — at least not people they know directly.

In some episodes of the Central podcast, Latinos idolize Trump, even affectionately calling him “corn hair,” despite his derogatory attacks on Latinos and threats of mass deportations. Is there an emotional connection, too?

Yes, and perhaps it’s not surprising, if we consider how attractive the strongman figure has been historically, and unfortunately still is, in Latin America. The presence of strong men holds appeal, and many find Trump attractive as a candidate for this reason.

Economy First

Let’s talk about the economy, for example, in Nevada. There, the main concern for Latinos is clearly the economy. How do they perceive the strengths of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on economic issues?

The economy is complicated. Obviously, inflation in the US in recent years has been significant. It has directly affected people’s pockets, and it’s no surprise that people vote based on their personal experiences — what they see day-to-day, providing for their families at the grocery store, filling the gas tank. This doesn’t surprise me.

Looking at it another way, given how challenging the economy is in the US, especially in Nevada, I find it surprising that the election is so close. Even with a struggling economy, an outsider candidate isn’t able to pull away from Kamala Harris. On the contrary, Kamala is leading nationally by 1.5 points.

Kamala is the Vice President and has held significant roles over the last four years, carrying the baggage of Biden’s economic performance. However, Trump is such a polarizing candidate, with dangerous tendencies that are evident, that he isn’t able to gain the lead he should have given the economic state of the country.

Kamala is running for president with the baggage of a very unpopular president. Biden doesn’t have the public’s affection after four years, so Trump’s presence strengthens her candidacy.

What connection does Harris have with Latinos? She’s also directly appealing to the Latino vote, focusing along with former President Obama on these states. Is her focus more on the African American vote or the Latino vote?

At this stage, she’s seeking votes from anyone, regardless of color or language, in these swing states. What she shares with the Latino community is that she’s the daughter of immigrants, which she often mentions in her speeches, at meetings, at rallies in cities like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, or Wisconsin. This resonates with the people we spoke with. She’s well-liked, despite being painted as a communist or as ideologically dangerous, which she isn’t.

Right now, she’s not focused on one group. You’ll see her at rallies with Beyonce in Texas. Beyonce is one of those artists who crosses boundaries; everyone loves Beyoncé. So, this isn’t specifically targeted at Latinos.

She’s holding an event with Los Tigres del Norte in Nevada this week, which is clearly aimed at Latinos, as well as another with Maná. These are clear examples of her seeking votes within each community to try to win these tightly contested elections.

The Battle in Pennsylvania and Arizona

In Pennsylvania, the eligible Latino electorate is over 600,000. Four years ago, Biden won the state with an 80,000-vote margin. Is there a trend in the Latino vote in Pennsylvania, a key state due to its electoral weight?

Analysts say the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has a good chance of winning the presidency. That’s why we went there, to understand and speak with people. The city we visited is somewhat atypical, called Hazleton, and it’s more Republican than other Latino areas. We found many evangelicals voting for Trump for religious reasons, as well as people focused on the economy who don’t feel threatened by deportation.

The figures we’re seeing nationally and statewide, showing Latinos shifting rightward, were evident on the streets of Hazleton.

Even if Kamala Harris wins the Latino vote, but by a smaller margin than Biden did four years ago, that would be a significant victory for Donald Trump and could jeopardize many states Harris’s campaign has been relying on.

Then there’s Arizona, which, after over 20 years of Republican dominance, was won by Democrats with Biden and 60% Latino support in 2020. What’s the current situation in this state?

Recent polls indicate that Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate candidate, will win that seat. In Arizona, there’s a trend toward split tickets, where people may vote Democratic for a Senate seat but Republican for president. The question is whether Arizona Republicans or independents will split their votes this way. In Arizona, as in the rest of the country, we found a highly polarized electorate.

Four years ago, among Latinos, there was a wave of activism by young Latinos who had opposed one of the most racist laws in the US and one of the most notorious anti-Latino figures in this country’s history: Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Phoenix.

Arpaio was a significant political figure in Arizona for many years, pushing for humiliating and racist laws against Latinos. That generation, who were teenagers when Arpaio emerged, are now of voting age. They’ve transitioned from high school activists to adult activists, mobilizing people to vote, largely for Biden in 2020.

The question is whether that same passion exists four years later, as the country has shifted rightward in its views on immigrants. The anti-immigrant rhetoric has proven to be effective — painfully effective. In many communities, they’ve established the belief that “this place is full. There’s no room for more. Immigrants are rapists, criminals, gang members, dangerous people.”

There’s a sense that compassion has waned for people, many of whom are highly vulnerable, crossing the Darien Gap or the border in other ways. It’s a complicated situation. I’m unsure how it will play out in Arizona, a border state with a long history of immigration issues.

Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan

In Florida, the Latino electorate is over 3 million, traditionally leaning Republican, except in 2012, when Barack Obama won. Is Florida still a swing state today?

I don’t think so. We included it in the series partly due to a reproductive rights law amendment. Looking at the polls, we thought it might put the state in play. For Democrats, abortion rights and access are critical issues for motivating voters.

Many people blame former President Trump for taking away this right, as he appointed three Supreme Court justices who ultimately repealed reproductive rights.

That didn’t happen; they haven’t mobilized as many people hoped or anticipated, and I can confidently say that Trump will win Florida.

On Thursday, October 31, 2024, Radio Ambulante and Telemundo will air the next to last  episode of this series on North Carolina. Can you give us a preview?

Yes. We wanted to focus on evangelical communities. I mentioned that the Latino evangelical vote is quite important. We saw a trend toward Republicans in Pennsylvania due to issues like abortion. In North Carolina, we found something a little different. We spoke with evangelicals voting for Kamala Harris, finding a very active community with a different perspective on the gospel and religion, more focused on social justice and protecting the vulnerable — in this case, the Latino immigrant community in North Carolina.

This church’s story is what we’ll tell, along with a broader look at North Carolina’s history of religion and activism in the South, with roots in African American churches fighting for civil rights in the 1960s.

There are two other swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin, where polls show Harris with a slight lead over Trump. Does the Latino vote have significant weight in these two states?

Yes, but in Michigan, it’s the Arab American vote that could be decisive. Michigan has a large electorate with roots in the Arab world. Obviously, the Gaza conflict spilling over to Lebanon and Iran, and the resulting humanitarian catastrophe, complicates Kamala’s prospects.

Many people rightly see that the Biden administration has been relatively weak, allowing Israel to commit indiscriminate violence against civilians in Gaza. Biden has lost some support, particularly among young voters in the US horrified by this administration’s lack of decisive action to end the killing.

Will these dissatisfied voters lean toward Trump, abstain from voting, or choose small third-party candidates?

Independents. There are a few small independent candidates, who could take away points from Kamala, in a polarized situation where a key state could be decided by less than 1%. Just not voting is a serious problem for Kamala’s campaign. They need every voter to turn out because Trump’s voters are highly motivated.

In such a tight and close election, with the backdrop of the 2020 crisis when Trump refused to accept his defeat, is there a possibility of post-election uncertainty or even violence?

I fear so. I have no doubt that if Trump loses, he will not accept the result. He has already said so publicly, creating chaos with disinformation, with lawyers ready to fight in any state where he isn’t the winner.

Trump’s rhetoric is violent, authoritarian, and in many ways fascist. Doubts are being sown now to contest the results in the streets or courts, which is obviously very concerning, as democracy in the US, like any democracy, is fragile and precarious — a fact we don’t realize until it’s threatened.

The podcast series El Péndulo, by Radio Ambulante and Telemundo, is broadcast

First published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.

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