TS Isaac Churns from Haiti to Cuba

HAVANA TIMES — After exiting Haiti, Tropical Storm Isaac will move near or over Eastern Cuba on Saturday, it is expected to skirt the  north coastline later today and then approach the Florida Keys, probably with hurricane strength on Sunday, reports the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At the latest report at 6:00 a.m. Cuban time (EDT) on Saturday, Isaac is packing 60 mph winds and is moving at a speed of 12 mph in a northwesterly direction. It’s minimal central pressure is 992 millibars.

The center of the storm was located by the Cuban Weather Service (INSMET) at 125 miles (205 kms) east-southeast of Guantanamo and 165 miles (270 kms) east-southeast  of Santiago de Cuba.

INSMET reports that Isaac should reach the Cuban coastline by late Saturday morning somewhere between the provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo. The rains will continue to increase gradually in the eastern provinces, becoming strong and intense by the afternoon.

The Cuban experts noted that heavy sea swells will make navigation dangerous on both eastern Cuban coasts during the next 24 hours and coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas of both the Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo.

INSMET warns of the threat posed by TS Isaac to Cuba and recommends that the population remain attentive to orientations of the Cuban Civil Defense Authorities who are taking precautions to save lives and economic interests throughout the eastern and central provinces expected to be affected by Isaac.

For greater details we are posting below the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

…ISAAC EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF HAITI…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS…THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD…AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA…SANCTI SPIRITUS…VILLA
CLARA…CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS…GRANMA…HOLGUIN…SANTIAGO DE
CUBA…AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TODAY…AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ISAAC MOVES OVER EASTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES…WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA…THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA…THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI…EASTERN CUBA…THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY…WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST…3 TO 5 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS…1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA…1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS…1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO…HISPANIOLA…THE BAHAMAS…THE TURKS AND CAICOS…EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA…AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.