Two Possible Scenarios for Sunday’s Venezuelan Elections
What each result could imply for the Nicaraguan dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo.
HAVANA TIMES – Venezuelans will go to the polls on July 28th and the results of that vote will greatly influence the political panorama of the Ortega-Murillo regime in Nicaragua. Analysts consulted by La Prensa agreed that the decisions of the Nicaraguan regime could vary greatly, depending on whether the opposition takes control of the South American country, or whether Nicolas Maduro remains in power.
At the moment, the regime in Nicaragua is “watching closely” the evolution of the Venezuelan elections. On more than one occasion, Rosario Murillo, the dictatorship’s spokesperson, has predicted that Nicolas Maduro will win the electoral contest. On July 23, for example, during her usual midday address, Murillo assured she had “full confidence” that Maduro will win.
“On July 28, the day of the elections in Venezuela, the birthday of the eternal Comandante [Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013] will be celebrated, and that date is – and will be – blessed by the great spirits of our teachers, heroes and guides, who all converge in Chavez and are guarding the supreme dreams of Bolivar, Marti, Sandino and Fidel. Dreams marked in freedom,” Murillo stated after reading a “message of solidarity” that her government sent to Maduro on Monday, July 22.
High tension surrounds upcoming elections
Venezuela’s presidential elections are scheduled to take place on Sunday, July 28. In them, Nicolas Maduro, who has been in office continuously since 2013, will face his chief rival, Edmundo Gonzalez. Although Gonzalez clearly has greater support, analysts warn that it’s very difficult to imagine those in charge allowing Maduro to leave power. A victory for the opposition would put an end to nearly 26 consecutive years of the “Chavista” regime, today headed by Nicolas Maduro, but following in the footsteps of deceased leader Hugo Chavez.
“You can see on social media what’s happening, that the opposition has had a lot of rallies in their favor. It appears that there’s a large majority that support an important change in leadership for Venezuela. The support for Maduro is less massive,” Venezuelan-Costa Rican analyst and economist Daniel Suchar Zomer told La Prensa.
According to former Venezuelan professor Angel Lombardi, in the course of nearly 26 years of the political project begun by Hugo Chavez, there’ve been many possibilities for Venezuela to move ahead, but instead of that, the country has moved towards authoritarianism.
As a result, he feels, there’s a lot of support from the population for the figure of Edmundo Gonzales, reflecting the Venezuelans’ acceptance of Maria Corina Machado, the original opposition candidate who was barred from running by the Maduro regime.
However, a climate of uncertainty has been created by the president’s speeches and by his more radical followers. Seeing themselves losing and without popular support, they’ve resorted to the threat that if they lose, the country will light the fuse of civil war. That’s socially irresponsible,” Lombardi stated.
Other analysts consulted by La Prensa noted that, should the opposition assume power, it would signify a change for the Nicaraguan regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, given that the Maduro regime has been an important “ideological” support for them in the region.
Scenario 1: The Venezuelan opposition succeeds in taking power
In the opinion of Suchar and Lombardi, an eventual triumph of the opposition in Venezuela would not be well regarded by authoritarian regimes such as Cuba and Nicaragua.
“A democratic triumph in Venezuela will not be convenient for Ortega or for Cuba, which are totalitarian projects that follow the absolutely failed communist experience. I believe that the exit of Venezuela from that small authoritarian group would benefit the democratization processes in Nicaragua and Cuba,” predicted Lombardi.
Suchar, for his part, considered this scenario “complex,” since Venezuela’s institutional framework has been dominated by the same ideology for almost 26 years.
“However, if the opposition wins, this would have repercussions throughout Latin America. It would be a bucket of cold water for countries such as Colombia, Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, and Nicaragua, because their ideologies complement each other,” expressed Suchar.
An opposition victory, Suchar believes, would translate into Venezuela’s distancing itself from Nicaragua, thus isolating still further the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo. Nonetheless, Lombardi expressed that should this scenario come to pass, the South American country could influence the region’s processes of democratization.
“In democratic terms, Venezuela would be an important example of peaceful transition, with regional geopolitical influence that wouldn’t go in a direction favorable to Ortega or to Raul Castro,” he specified.
Political analyst Eliseo Nuñez added that if the opposition wins in Venezuela, it would also be a message for Ortega.
“This result is going to affect the way Ortega looks at things. If they manage to remove Maduro from power through the electoral route, it could give him the message that he must never allow elections,” Núñez said.
Scenario 2: Nicolás Maduro remains in power
“In the event that Nicolás Maduro continues, it would be a great pat on the back for Nicaragua, which has had very close relations, and an endorsement to continue that closeness between Daniel Ortega and Nicolás Maduro. Relations between both governments could be strengthened,” stated Suchar.
In Lombardi’s opinion, this result would leave Maduro with only the support of the regimes of Miguel Díaz-Canel in Cuba and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.
For his part, Suchar doesn’t rule out the possibility- especially given recent comments from the ruling party – that Nicolas Maduro’s regime could sabotage the elections.
“The government could implement some kind of sabotage, and Maduro may not let go of power. This would be a bucket of hot water and a relief for Daniel Ortega, who is always looking for important allies. Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Colombia will also get a breath of fresh air if Maduro remains in power. We hope the electoral process can be achieved in peace, but Nicolas Maduro threatened a bloodbath if he does not remain in power. So, this process is already tarnished with those comments,” Suchar pointed out.
In an appearance on July 17, Nicolas Maduro warned that there could be a “bloodbath” and a “civil war” if the ruling party does not win the elections.
“The destiny of Venezuela in the 21st century, depends on our victory on July 28. If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, a fratricidal civil war, product of the fascists, let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest victory in the electoral history of our people”, said Maduro in his speech.
This generated reactions, among them from Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, who said he was “frightened” by Maduro’s statements. In response, the Venezuelan dictator recommended that those who were frightened by his statements drink “a cup of chamomile tea.”
Originally published in Spanish by La Prensa and translated and published in English by Havana Times.