Two Right-Wing Candidates Face Off in Crisis-Torn Bolivia
Presidential elections this Sunday October 19th
By Gonzalo Torrico (Agence France-Presse)
HAVANA TIMES – Bolivians will vote this Sunday, October 19, in a runoff election to choose a president. Two right-wing candidates are competing for the mission to lead a country in crisis, and turn around an economy in the red. No matter which candidate wins, it will mark the end of 20 years of left-wing governments.
In a country with great scarcities of dollars and fuel, with year-on-year inflation over 23%, voters buried Evo Morales’ Movement toward Socialism (MAS) in the first round.
On Sunday, they will choose between center-right leader Rodrigo Paz, who unexpectedly led the first round, and former liberal president Jorge Quiroga.
This ends an era that Morales began in 2006, and his successor – now adversary – Luis Arce closed, a cycle that went from the bonanza brought about by the nationalization of gas to the dramatic fall in production that has practically dried up all sources of foreign exchange.
Today, long lines are a common sight in front of gas stations, or to stock up on subsidized rice or oil. It’s the worst crisis in four decades to hit this lithium-rich country of 11.3 million inhabitants.
“There’s a lot of desperation, most people live from day to day (…) Things are not going well for us here,” says Pamela Roque, a 29-year-old surgical technician who is considering emigrating due to lack of employment.
With 44.9% in a voter preference survey, Jorge Quiroga is currently favored over Rodrigo Paz (36.5%), according to the poll published on Sunday by Ipsos-Ciesmori.
“For either of the two (candidates), the social cost and risk” of protests will be high, if they don’t provide quick solutions,” political analyst Ana Lucia Velasco told AFP.
Thirsty for dollars
The Arce administration, which will leave power on November 8, has almost exhausted the country’s dollar reserves to sustain a universal fuel subsidy policy. His successor will inherit an economy in recession, according to World Bank projections.
Quiroga, a 65-year-old engineer who graduated in the United States, proposes injecting $12 billion through loans from multilateral organizations. The Alianza Libre candidate assures that in three months foreign currency will return to the financial system, which today doesn’t even have sufficient funds to allow those with savings accounts to withdraw their money. “The dollars come from outside. Unless that happens, there is no solution,” he argues.
In contrast, Rodrigo Paz, a 58-year-old economist and son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), advocates restructuring the state budget first, before taking on more debt. Bolivia’s external debt is currently nearly 30% of GNP. “The problem is (…) asking for credit without putting your house in order (…). The other [candidate] is going to hold out a [begging] hand to see if they get the money under very harsh conditions,” he said.
Both propose maintaining fuel subsidies, but only for public transportation and vulnerable sectors, and maintaining social programs and vouchers.
“I don’t trust either of them (…). What do they have for me? My salary isn’t enough for anything,” Jorge Serrano, a 73-year-old former construction worker, told AFP.
Quiroga and Paz have softened the severity of their original plans, avoiding talk of an economic shock. However, “you can’t have both at the same time,” political analyst Velasco points out, referring to the proposals to maintain the subsidies and vouchers, and stabilize the economy at the same time.
“People have their hopes pinned on electoral promises that are very difficult or perhaps impossible to fulfill,” she adds.
The shadow of Evo Morales
The Christian Democratic Party, led by Paz, will have the highest number of senators and deputies, but without securing a majority. Alianza Libre is set to become the second largest force in the Bolivian Congress.
Outside Congress, they’ll face opposition from Evo Morales, who ruled Bolivia three times between 2006 and 2019, and who was barred from the current election by a constitutional ruling. An arrest warrant still hangs over the controversial leader’s head, stemming from accusations of abusing a minor when he was in power, a charge he denies.
In Bolivia’s first-round elections, held in August 2025, Morales pushed for turning in blank ballots. “Let’s see if the right, can hold up if they win,” he stated.
A part of the population, especially those of indigenous background, may well not feel represented now, neither in government nor in Parliament. “People would be willing to accept a rightist government if they can manage the economy well, but if they become a haven for people with a racist discourse (…) they won’t pardon them for it,” Velasco comments.