Can Marco Rubio Change Both Vietnam and Cuba?
By Khanh Vu Duc*
HAVANA TIMES – If Marco Rubio becomes Secretary of State in a Trump 2.0 administration, he will inherit a world grappling with authoritarian resurgence, economic instability, and geopolitical rivalry. Nowhere are these challenges more evident than in Vietnam and Cuba—two enduring communist regimes that, while diverging in development trajectories, share a resistance to democratic governance. Rubio, a staunch advocate of democracy and human rights, faces a daunting question: can he inspire change in both nations without destabilizing them?
The answer is yes—but only with a pragmatic approach that balances principled advocacy for human rights with a strategic understanding of geopolitical realities.
Vietnam: The Geopolitical Keystone
Vietnam stands as a paradox. Its economic success, driven by market reforms and global integration since the “Đổi Mới” policy of 1986, is undeniable. It is now a critical player in global supply chains and a key U.S. partner in counterbalancing China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Yet its political system remains rigid, with limited tolerance for dissent and a poor record on civil liberties.
Rubio must address this duality head-on. U.S. policymakers often overlook Vietnam’s strategic importance, focusing narrowly on its economic reforms or its role in the U.S.-China rivalry. But for Vietnam to achieve true stability and prosperity, it must embrace political reforms. A freer society would unlock its full potential, enabling innovation and entrepreneurship while fostering trust in governance.
However, pushing too hard risks alienating Hanoi and driving it closer to Beijing. Vietnam’s leaders remain deeply wary of foreign interference, shaped by a history of resistance to Chinese domination and Western colonization. Rubio should advocate for gradual reforms that align with Vietnam’s cultural and political realities. Support for civil society, independent journalism, and rule-of-law initiatives can serve as stepping stones toward greater political openness.
At the same time, Rubio must be clear that partnership with the U.S. comes with expectations. Vietnam’s aspirations for deeper integration into the global economy—through frameworks like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—should be tied to measurable improvements in labor rights and freedom of expression. Pragmatism does not mean compromising principles; it means pursuing them strategically.
Cuba: A Crisis at the Crossroads
Cuba’s trajectory stands in stark contrast. While Vietnam leveraged market reforms to escape economic stagnation, Cuba clings to an antiquated socialist model that has left its economy in shambles. The island is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with widespread shortages of food, medicine, and electricity. Over a million Cubans have fled since 2020, creating a migration crisis that directly affects the United States.
Rubio, a Cuban-American, has long championed the cause of Cuban democracy. His potential leadership could mark a turning point—but only if he tempers the pursuit of regime change with a commitment to humanitarian relief and incremental reform.
Critics like Professor William LeoGrande in Foreign Policy warn that a policy of maximum pressure risks pushing Cuba toward chaos, with dire consequences for the region. A collapse of the Cuban regime could unleash mass migration, destabilize the Caribbean, and create a haven for transnational crime. Rubio must recognize these risks and pivot toward a policy that combines targeted pressure with constructive engagement.
Humanitarian aid, such as food and medicine, is both a moral imperative and a strategic opportunity. It undermines the regime’s narrative of U.S. hostility while alleviating suffering. Lifting certain sanctions, such as those on oil shipments from Venezuela, could help stabilize Cuba’s energy grid, laying the groundwork for future reforms.
At the same time, the U.S. should empower Cuba’s private sector, which has shown resilience despite government restrictions. Expanding remittances, supporting small businesses, and facilitating internet access are practical steps that strengthen Cuban society from within. Rubio should make it clear that these measures are not about propping up the regime but about supporting the Cuban people in their quest for dignity and freedom.
The U.S.-China-Vietnam Triangle
Both Vietnam and Cuba are deeply entwined with U.S.-China dynamics. While Vietnam actively resists China’s territorial ambitions, Cuba has grown more reliant on Chinese trade and investment as U.S. sanctions bite. Rubio must navigate these complexities with care.
In Vietnam, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to deepen ties and counterbalance China’s influence. This requires more than just defense cooperation; it demands a comprehensive partnership that includes economic, cultural, and governance initiatives. Encouraging Vietnam to diversify its alliances strengthens its autonomy, reducing its dependence on Beijing.
In Cuba, the challenge is to prevent China from filling the vacuum left by U.S. disengagement. Beijing has already made inroads, from infrastructure investments to technology exports. Rubio must offer an alternative vision—one that prioritizes Cuban sovereignty and economic self-reliance over dependency on authoritarian powers.
Principled Pragmatism: The Path Forward
Rubio’s potential tenure as Secretary of State offers a chance to redefine U.S. engagement with Vietnam and Cuba. Both nations represent the broader struggle between democracy and authoritarianism—a struggle that demands both firmness and flexibility.
In Vietnam, Rubio should leverage the country’s economic ambitions to push for gradual political reforms, demonstrating that freedom and prosperity go hand in hand. In Cuba, he should address the immediate humanitarian crisis while laying the groundwork for long-term change.
Critics may argue that such an approach lacks boldness or risks legitimizing authoritarian regimes. But history shows that transformative change often begins with small, incremental steps. The U.S.-Vietnam relationship, once mired in hostility, is now a cornerstone of regional stability. A similar trajectory is possible for Cuba, but it requires patience and strategic vision.
Rubio must also be prepared for the long game. True change in Vietnam and Cuba will not happen overnight, nor will it come solely from external pressure. It will emerge from the aspirations of their people, supported by a U.S. policy that champions freedom, democracy, and human dignity.
By combining principled advocacy with pragmatic diplomacy, Rubio can answer the question at the heart of this debate. Yes, he can change Vietnam and Cuba—not by imposing solutions, but by empowering their people to build freer, fairer societies.
*Guest author Khanh Vu Duc is a lawyer and law professor at the University of Ottawa, Canada.
I disagree with certain important points in this post. The author says that human rights and humanitarian needs must be protected while a regime change program is implemented in Cuba. As harsh as it sounds, I thoroughly disagree. Any effort to avoid further disaster in Cuba through US aid efforts will only serve to sustain the powers that be. Instead, if regime change is the plan, the US must charge full steam ahead and allow the Castro dictatorship to collapse entirely before an aid package is provided. Otherwise, Cuban leadership will continue to do what they have always done, live well off the international support they receive while the average Cuban suffers. If China, Russia or a landing party from Mars was going to swoop in and save the day, they would be doing that now.