Genesis 1:3 – And God said, “Let There Be Light”
By SE Lewinski
HAVANA TIMES – Truthfully, I don’t foresee God intervening in the current electrical dilemma facing Cuba and its governmental oversight. Let’s start with President Miguel DIaz-Canel of Cuba as a point of interest. He studied electrical engineering at Central University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas in Santa Clara, graduating in 1982. As with most Electrical engineers, the academic curriculum includes the topic of Electric Power Systems.
“The electric power system is a network of electrical components deployed to supply, transfer, and use electric power. An example of a power system is the electrical grid that provides power to homes and industries within an extended area.” Wikipedia
The chief at the top essentially has the engineering and science background to understand the country’s electrical infrastructure. Next, let’s consider the business model of building hotels and the expenses as noted below:
“The hotel will enjoy a 5-star-plus category and is being built for US$ 90 million. It will have 452 guest rooms spread throughout its twin towers, 15 and 17 floors respectively, and its shape will evoke an undulating Cuban flag 72 meters tall.”
Yes, very impressive, and consider the island’s budget for the Empire hotel building includes consuming two-thirds of the Cuban capital and one-third of foreign capital. MINTUR’s overall hotel construction plans estimated cost is more than US$ 19 billion, an amount far higher than what is assigned to productive activities, science, and technological innovation,” noted Cubanet.
Now time for some Cuban Power Plant Math:
Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said the country had 500 megawatts in its electrical grid compared to the 3 gigawatts that are normally generated.
Jorge Piñon, a Cuban-born energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, highlighted that Cuba’s electricity grid relies on eight very large power plants that are close to 50 years old.
3 gigawatts / 8 Power plants = 375MW each. Thus, for our analysis, Cuba needs at least 8 replacement 500MW power plants. As a side note the floating Turkish power ships (currently five in Cuba) generate 250MW each and would require a total of twelve if available to meet the 3 GWs of power for Cuba. They would also need the fuel necessary to operate, which has been a problem for the existing five power ships as the government hasn’t consistently had the funds to pay suppliers for the fuel.
“Cuba depends on imports to feed its largely obsolete, oil-fired power plants.” Per Dave Sherwood of Reuters. Since oil-fired power plants are anachronistic technology, a replacement would be natural gas to generate 500 MW for $542M.
To replace 8 power plants = 8 x $542M = $4.33B or per se the cost of building 5 luxury hotels in Cuba. These power plants don’t just drop out of the sky and require 2 to 3 years to build. Thus, the situation in Cuba is more serious than perceived from the layman’s point of view. First, you need the cash to finance new builds, materials/equipment, and large construction crews and skills that will consume 3 years of build time. Let’s not add that an energy source needs to be imported and must have the cash to pay for that asset.
Where is that money going to come from to rebuild the electrical power structure from Cuba which is essentially broken (no liquidity)? Consider the USA sent $1.5B as a package aid to Ukraine for their energy sector, and probably that kind of funding will not come from up north for Cuba. Not sure China, Russia, Mexico, or Venezuela as allies would step up to the plate to fund electrical infrastructure that would have zero benefits for them as a business venture.
From a business perspective, sorry Cuba people you are screwed. Fifty years of governmental neglect, the problem is not going to be fixed by news broadcasts, government promises, or tweets. Plus, duh, electricity is needed to listen to all the rhetoric that may be received. The government’s business model of building hotels and resorts for cash forgot the need for stable electricity which provides lights, air-conditioning, water, and comforts for tourists. Why would any tourist come to the island if candles are lighting the airport, and they have to bring their own electrical power generators? The demise of the power management in Cuba now directly impacts the key revenue of the island.
Conclusion: Any electrical engineer running the country would know from the above, no cash, no fuel, and an extended timeline to replace the electrical power plants spells DOOM. The obvious choice would be to have an exit plan. Move all possible money into a foreign bank, hand over the reins to a military patsy, and be prepared to helicopter off the island. If the local population decides to overlook the criminal code of long prison times or a bullet, they will eventually be visiting the capital in mass demanding the heads of state.
The government survival strategy is to ensure electrical power first to Havana attempting to keep the tourist coming and less dissent the locals will courage up to march on the capital without utilities. The rest of the country can’t easily commute in mass to the capital and they are the fodder for nominal water and electricity.