Mexico’s President: Pressured with Little Room to Maneuver
Relations between the leaders of Mexico and the United States are currently at a low point. One key factor is that Trump holds all the cards.
By Ernesto Hernandez Norzagaray (latinoamerica21)
HAVANA TIMES – “How can we help fight organized crime in your country? If you’d like, we can send US army troops to Mexico.” Those were more or less the words President Donald Trump reportedly said to President Claudia Sheinbaum, and the immediate response was one of rejection. “We can cooperate and coordinate to combat it,” Sheinbaum replied, “but that must not mean a military intervention on our territory.”
At that moment, the phone conversation between the two presidents came to an end. A few days later, at a public event, Sheinbaum commented on it and concluded by telling the audience that Mexico “is not anyone’s piñata,” a statement open to various interpretations—none entirely favorable, since a piñata is something everyone hits until it’s completely destroyed. And perhaps that’s not the case.
Everything suggests that relations between the two leaders are at a low point, with one significant trait: Trump holds all the cards. He has already figured Sheinbaum out and uses a strategy of “the flower and the thorn,” meaning that on the one hand, he calls the Mexican president charming and intelligent, but once the charm offensive is done, he delivers the sting. He jabs with tariffs, militarization, spy flights and vessels, border demands, extraditions, fentanyl seizures, and hardline diplomacy. And this continues until there’s another phone call, under the same logic of unrelenting pressure.
So far, this strategy doesn’t include plans for a face-to-face meeting between the leaders, unlike Trump’s recent meeting with Mark Carney, the new Canadian prime minister, signaling a different approach with his neighbors and partners. Trump sees Canadians as more reliable allies—to the point that he has joked about wanting Canada to become the 51st U.S. state and even referred to Justin Trudeau as a governor rather than prime minister, a political discourtesy that displeased most Canadians. Today, relations between the US and Canada have cooled in media terms, but not so with Mexico, where tensions continue to rise daily, and the bilateral agenda adjusts constantly to new provocations.
At the time of writing, three recent US decisions have shaken Mexico’s National Palace. The first is the likely imposition of a 5% or 3.5% tax on remittances sent by foreign residents—legal or not—living in the US to their home countries. These remittances have steadily increased in Mexico, amounting to around $64 billion last year. After oil exports, remittances are the country’s second-largest source of foreign currency.
The second decision concerns an agreement the US government made with Ovidio Guzman, the youngest son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzman, which resulted in the protection and transfer of 17 family members to US territory—without any prior communication with Mexico or explanation for the unilateral extradition of the Sinaloa cartel leader.
The third decision, more domestic and mid-term in nature, may signal that something bigger is brewing regarding so-called narcopolitics—a hot link in the chain of the narcoterrorism concept, already enshrined in US law. The US government revoked the visa of Marina del Pilar Avila, governor of the border state of Baja California, without providing details behind this unilateral and highly symbolic move.
Let’s not forget that just over a month ago, US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem visited Mexico’s National Palace and reportedly left a list on President Sheinbaum’s desk naming narcopoliticians whom the US wants brought to justice for their complicity with drug cartels. The list is said to include cabinet members and senior legislators, both from this and the previous federal government.
If true, this presents a serious problem for President Sheinbaum, as it would mean proceeding against members of her own party, potentially triggering a major political crisis, especially if it implicates key operatives of former President Lopez Obrador in the cabinet, the party, and Congress. This is where the Trump administration tightens the screws and where Sheinbaum’s room to maneuver narrows.
Some might see in all this an opportunity for the government to shake off political overseers and exercise power more fully. But doing so could come at a high cost—possibly greater than Trump’s pressure—because it could shatter the project of the Fourth Transformation (4T), whatever that may mean.
Thus, Sheinbaum will likely opt for the lesser evil: confronting Trump whenever he makes a decision that affects Mexico, while simultaneously sending signals to politicians within her own party. But her room for maneuver is limited in a country polarized since the spring 2024 elections. In other words, this conflict is far from over and will continue to be shaped by a steady stream of US decisions that could eventually undermine her leadership.
It’s not out of the question that at some point the US government could act unilaterally, as it did with Ismael Zambada—the legendary Sinaloa drug lord who had never served time but is now held in a high-security facility, possibly facing one or more life sentences. So this power game—a zero-sum game, as Yankees catcher Yogi Berra once said—“ain’t over till it’s over.”
*Professor at the Autonomous University of Sinaloa.