Runoff Election in Ecuador This Sunday, April 13
Ecuador’s crime rates at the beginning of the century were very similar to those of Chile, so the deterioration of the situation there should serve as a warning to our authorities.
By Gabriel Gaspar (El Mostrador)
HAVANA TIMES – The second round of Ecuador’s presidential elections will take place this Sunday, April 13. In the first round, two candidates secured the majority of votes: current president Daniel Noboa, who is seeking re-election, and candidate Luisa Gonzalez. Noboa received 4,527,606 votes, representing 44.17% of the ballots, closely followed by González with 4,510,860 votes, or 44% of the total. The third-place candidate was indigenous leader Leonidas Iza, with 538,456 votes, or 5.25%. The remaining candidates received minimal support.
Ecuador, a Polarized Society
President Noboa is running for re-election backed by most of the country’s center-right forces. A young professional, he is the heir to one of Ecuador’s most influential economic clans. Luisa Gonzalez, on the other hand, is supported by the main center-left forces, projecting the legacy and leadership of former president Rafael Correa, now living in exile in Belgium.
In recent years, Ecuador has experienced a growing spiral of violence that has significantly deteriorated its security. Once a country with highly positive indicators at the start of the century, it has now become one of the societies most affected by organized crime. Various transnational organizations have established operations in the country, taking control of prisons, dominating territories, and extorting the population. But not all of Ecuador’s problems are related to security.
The country’s energy matrix has been affected, leading to long power outages and all the consequences that come with them. Like the rest of the world, Ecuador’s economy was also impacted by the pandemic. Although Ecuador is officially dollarized, the rise in violence has driven away tourism, and the country’s oil exports are subject to the fluctuations of the global market. Fortunately for Ecuador, remittances from migrants contributed over $6.5 billion in 2024.
A financially strained country, with high public debt and persistent violence despite the involvement of the armed forces in domestic security, is the backdrop for the presidential elections concluding this Sunday, April 13.
Bitter Elections – Will They Resolve the Polarization?
For electoral theorists, the runoff system helps build majorities—but what happens if the result is extremely close, especially after a campaign marked by distrust and institutional fragility?
The opposition has criticized candidate-president Noboa’s performance, arguing that, according to the Constitution, a sitting president seeking re-election must take a leave of absence. That has not been the case. This may be due to a rupture between Noboa and his vice president, Veronica Abad, who has been effectively sidelined from her role.
The government has attempted to resolve the issue by appointing—via decree—senior official Cynthia Gellibert as acting president. Electoral authorities have effectively validated this move, even though Abad has filed complaints before the Supreme Court.
The complaints go beyond electoral issues. In the last presidential elections, the country was shaken by the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio, whose campaign was centered on exposing corruption. At the time, Villavicencio’s widow—citing official sources—accused former president Correa of being the intellectual author of the murder, a blow that seriously harmed candidate Luisa Gonzalez.
Just days ago, the widow again came forward to say she had been manipulated by the attorney general at the time, and now also accuses President Noboa of misleading her with false information.
Meanwhile, crime continues unabated. In the first few weeks of this year, seven prison officials have been assassinated by hitmen, interpreted as a warning to state forces trying to restore order in the prisons.
According to a Human Rights Watch report, homicides increased by 430% between 2019 and 2024, with 3,036 cases recorded in the first half of 2024. President Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict,” which has allowed the armed forces to engage in domestic security tasks—but with only moderate success so far.
He has even hired advisors from the US-based organization Blackwater, with similarly limited results, amid silent protest from Ecuadorian police and military. It’s worth recalling that at the beginning of the century, Ecuador had one of the lowest homicide rates in the region, and now it has surpassed 50 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. The Latin American average is around 17, and Chile’s is 7.
The ruling party, for its part, leans heavily on anti-Correa rhetoric, denouncing past alliances with Bolivarian countries and claiming that a Luisa Gonzalez victory would lead to de-dollarization. They also point to various corruption scandals from that era, including that of former vice president Jorge Glas, who, despite being granted asylum in the Mexican embassy, was forcibly removed and taken to prison—violating diplomatic immunity. Understandably, Mexico-Ecuador relations are now at their lowest point because of this incident.
The electoral campaign reflects this deep hostility between the two main political forces. One of the most significant political moves has been Luisa Gonzalez’s agreement with Ecuador’s Indigenous movement, which, from a purely mathematical standpoint, could give her the majority she needs.
But all analysts agree that the electoral result will be extremely close. Worse still, there are signs that the outcome may be contested, potentially triggering another cycle of political crisis, given the widespread criticism of the electoral authorities.
In this context, two electoral observation missions will play a crucial role. One is made up of European Union officials, and the other from the Organization of American States (OAS), headed by former Chilean foreign minister Heraldo Muñoz.
A few days ago, 14 US congress members addressed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressing concern over what they called a threat to democracy from President Noboa, accusing him of campaigning with public funds and violating Ecuadorian law.
A worrying fact to conclude: as mentioned, Ecuador’s crime rates at the start of the century were very similar to Chile’s, so the deterioration of the situation in this country should serve as a warning to our authorities. The gangs operating in Ecuador have expanded into Peru, where extortion and contract killings are already sparking social protests. It is highly likely that some of these criminal organizations are already operating in Chilean territory.
Electoral campaigning ended on Thursday the 10th, as did the publication of polling data. Now comes a tense wait until election day.
First published in Spanish by El Mostrador and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.