Unraveling a Solution to Nicaragua’s Crisis (part 2)
The search for a negotiated solution
By Raul K. Bautista
HAVANA TIMES – Some international human rights organizations and foreign ministers from the OAS or European Union countries believe that “the deterioration in the Nicaraguan human rights situation could still be reversed, and respect for the Rule of Law reestablished.” (From the June 20, 2024 oral update on the promotion and protection of human rights in Nicaragua, issued during the 56th session of the UN Human Rights Council,)
Given that evaluation, the EU, US, OAS, and other governments and international entities will continue issuing calls for the Ortega-Murillo regime to seek a negotiated solution in pursuit of a return to democracy in Nicaragua and an end to the human rights violations there. They’ll support “any perspective for a significant national dialogue (..) [and will continue] insisting on some sine qua non conditions for such a dialogue,” (European Parliament resolution passed on June 15, 2023).
A negotiation between Ortega-Murillo, the US and sectors of the opposition, as has been suggested, is possible. The day after the 222 political prisoners were liberated and banished [February 9, 2023], US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a phone call to Nicaraguan foreign minister Denis Moncada and they discussed the situation of the prisoners and “the importance of a constructive dialogue.” However, Trump’s advisors have stated that if he wins the election, he won’t negotiate with Nicaragua; and if Biden wins, he’ll continue prioritizing other foreign policy issues. In any case, it’s the Nicaraguan regime that should issue the call for a negotiation.
The Ortega-Murillo duo’s strategic decision to transition from authoritarianism to totalitarianism negates any possibility of a negotiation that could lead to a solution to the sociopolitical crisis. In simple terms, it cancels out any negotiation, because the regime’s essential objective is maintaining power. That’s the reason that totalitarian systems neutralize all those who question them and eliminate their opponents. Still, whether or not they ascribe to that thesis, the opposition can’t and shouldn’t renounce the idea of dialogue and negotiation. We must turn deaf ears to neophyte political analysts who consider themselves infallible experts, and who – standing on their moral pedestals – see any negotiation with Ortega as an act of ingenuousness, moral failing, and treason to the struggle.
Negotiation is a necessary tool to end wars and finish off systems or regimes that violate human rights. It’s the most often utilized modern tool for the peaceful resolution of controversies and even barbarous acts. Some examples: the African National Congress negotiated an end to apartheid and free elections in South Africa with then-ruler Frederik De Klerk; the combatants in East Timor negotiated with the occupying troops of the Indonesian Army during their struggle for independence, even though the latter had massacred over 88 thousand people; and Ukraine entered into a [failed] negotiation process with Russia a few months after their invasion.
Nicaraguan opposition remains divided and fragmented
Although it’s very improbable that Ortega and Murillo would issue a call to negotiate, it’s conceivable that they could be forced to do so, and the opposition should prepare themselves for such a possibility. It’s been suggested that in such a case, their representatives should be those who have remained most belligerent since 2018, because the opposition groups are “dispersed and directionless.” Who and how could such groups select their representatives to a negotiation?
Before November 2021, peripheral opposition sectors centered their implacably destructive criticism on the protagonists, leaders, and organizations (the Civic Alliance, the Blue and White National Unity movement) that had arisen from the April 2018 insurrection. Now, each time a group, coalition or inclusive platform emerges that is capable of bringing together broad sectors inside and outside the country and attract international support, it’s sabotaged by other radicalized or sectarian elements of the opposition, with the help of some independent journalists. If that doesn’t work, then the unity is destroyed from within, with the creation of divisions.
The generational, ideological, and historic discrepancies have expanded and sharpened, all working against a process of unity. Manuel Orozco – political analyst and director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program of Inter-American Dialogue – noted that the resentment and distrust among sectors of the opposition are irreconcilable with forging unity. Historic revisionism “is invoked with the intention of dividing, consolidating a position of control, and promoting political reprisals.” Historic reductionism – he emphasized – should be cast aside, and “political reprisals within the political cause” must end, because they distract attention from the struggle against the dictatorship.
The recently concluded 54th OAS General Assembly, held in Paraguay, was attended by at least three or four opposition delegations, each one doing their own lobbying work and seeking backing for their own horse. They hadn’t even spoken together previous to their participation, and there was neither coordination nor interaction between them. If they persist in this type of behavior and fragmentation, the unity needed to confront the dictatorship won’t be achieved for another five to ten years, perhaps well after the family dynasty has been consolidated. Since the end of the Cold War, no opposition or opposition groups in exile have succeeded in deposing a dictator without first achieving unity.
Given that unity is elusive in the short and medium term, what can the opposition do to achieve even a minimum of coordination and take full advantage of any civic path out of the crisis that should present itself – for example a dialogue or the 2026 presidential elections?
The 2026 elections in Nicaragua
Prominent members of the opposition agree that the elections scheduled for November 2026 according to Nicaragua’s Constitution could be used to exert “enough internal and external pressure” to succeed in having them be free, fair, transparent, and competitive. No such conditions currently exist, but efforts should be made to create them, and to open the possibility for a democratic transition. No one is deceiving themselves here. The opposition won’t participate in an electoral process that allows for a fraud. “The important thing,” they say, “is to create [the conditions] and [open] some political room to engage in a political struggle.”
Since 2008 – some would say 2006 – until November 2021, the Nicaraguan dictatorship maintained the appearance of a democracy and preserved their power through electoral fraud. Those elections were pantomimes that were in no way democratic, but their result was a government considered illegitimate. Daniel Ortega doesn’t want to lose power again, and for that reason he won’t allow free, fair and transparent elections. That’s also the reason he eliminated all effective political opposition in 2021 by either imprisoning or exiling his electoral competitors. However, like Russia and to some extent China, he still needs to give the appearance of elections, so he’ll undoubtedly call for them in 2026. These elections, as the OAS pointed out in 2021, won’t provide “minimal guarantees of impartiality, equality, freedom and transparency.”
However, the 2026 elections can be utilized to lobby for a tightening of the sanctions, greater support for the opposition, further isolation of the dictatorship, and to persuade the governments in Europe and the Americas to use all possible mechanisms to remove them from power, and to organize, motivate and incentivize the mobilization of those within the country who oppose the dictatorship – people currently subjugated by the terror that accompanies a Police State.
Dynastic succession?
Another possible opening that could lead to a solution to the crisis – according to former Army chief Humberto Ortega – could come with the dictator’s death. At that time, he theorized, the Nicaraguan Army, in coordination with the National Police, could call for an electoral process, even perhaps that of 2026. According to [Gen. Ortega’s] criteria, no one in the circle of power, the government, or the party structures, has the influence or possibility of continuing the current process, because only Daniel Ortega is the “historic leader,” due to his participation in the original Sandinista struggle. Neither Rosario Murillo, nor their children “represent the accumulated weight of the political struggle.” But that scenario is little likely. The Army and the Police are under Murillo’s total control. Historic research reveals that in 90% of cases all over the globe, “the power structure continued” one year after the death of a tyrant. “There was no collapse, no crumbling, no associated crisis,” noted Julio Lopez Campos in an interview with Confidencial.
The former general seems to be unaware that Rosario Murillo leads that group in power that he calls “extremists,” who have opted for “the totalitarian path” and have implanted “a police regime.” She has been assuming ever more power since 2007, and has assured her path as presidential successor by assuming the Vice Presidency. She has put all the institutions and the administrative and governmental bodies under her command; she’s annihilated the FSLN Party; and has cast aside and isolated the Sandinistas and historic combatants who were left there after a significant number of intellectuals and former government and party officials peeled away at the beginning of the 90s.
Under her control, the FSLN has become a party at the service of her family. She’s also imposed terror in the party and government structures, to the point where the former Sandinista commanders are afraid to pronounce on the current situation, and Humberto Ortega himself is being held incommunicado in house arrest after giving a critical interview to the Argentine website Infobae. Rosario Murillo will inherit the regime, and will continue in complete command if the tyrant Ortega dies.
“Somoza was unable to establish his son as successor,” the ex-General asserted. That’s true of Anastasio Somoza Debayle [3rd and last Somoza in power], but not of his father and predecessor Anastasio Somoza Garcia. The General’s assertion does coincide with events cited by some opposition sectors, for example that Ramfis Trujillo was unable to assume power in the Dominican Republic after the assassination of his father. However, circumstances have changed. Nicolas Maduro was a former bus driver and union leader, but he was trained by the Cubans and has managed to remain in power for eleven years. Laureano Ortega Murillo has been trained to take power and has been in charge of investments, international trade; he also heads relations with Russia and China, the only countries that truly interest the regime. The plan is for him to assume power following the death of his mother.
A totalitarian regime “isn’t viable”
These scenarios aren’t at all uplifting, but it’s impossible to visualize a short- or medium-term solution to the crisis. However, we Nicaraguans should maintain the hope and the full conviction that the Ortega-Murillo regime is destined to fail, because it isn’t viable in our country. In the words of George F. Kennan, a former US diplomat who advocated for a policy of containment towards the USSR, Stalinist-type totalitarian systems “hold within themselves the seeds of their own destruction.” The regime doesn’t have a social base or any significant socioeconomic achievements. The majority of the population rejects it and doesn’t agree with the direction the country has taken.
Generally, totalitarian regimes fall in one of two ways: the armed road, be it an external invasion and armed internal rebellion, or a combination of both; or through peaceful transitions towards less totalitarian systems, or towards democracy. They may also fall due to a severe deterioration or collapse of the economy. According to experts, since the Second World War, the totalitarian regimes have succumbed to a combination of internal discontent and external pressures. Both are within the reach and capability of the Nicaraguan opposition. Daniel Ortega and those who surround him have been warned of the risks they’re running. If they turn a blind eye to these, they’ll find themselves forced to make some changes, like negotiating a transition to democracy, or to fall.
The totalitarian Ortega-Murillo regime’s willingness to impose a North Korean-style dynasty in the Americas is unacceptable. In addition, it’s a renegade State that refuses to recognize international law. The Western countries recognize that the provision of arms and direct military presence of Russia in the country, as well as the signed agreements and memorandums between the two countries – proof of their close relationship and alliance, and of the mutual support they profess – pose a threat to regional security and to the national security of the United States.