Venezuela at a New Political Crossroads
Restoring democracy requires will, political resolve, strategy, and social cohesion around a common purpose.
By Fredy Rincon Noriega (Efecto Cocuyo)
HAVANA TIMES – After the events of January 3, Venezuelans have begun to move into a new phase of the political process. This is not an end point, but rather a particularly complex stretch, marked by evident risks, accumulated tensions, and deep uncertainties. Experience advises prudence and demands caution. Incomplete, failed, or poorly managed transitions often end in undesirable frustrations.
Venezuelan society arrives at this moment exhausted by so much suffering. Years of economic hardship, institutional deterioration, and systematic human rights violations have eroded collective patience. The evident impatience of broad social sectors striving to accelerate change and swiftly recover democratic life is understandable. That unease does not stem from whim, but from prolonged suffering and the awareness that lost time is difficult to recover.
However, urgency cannot replace reflection. Political transitions, in prolonged authoritarian contexts, require—if they are to succeed—that the various actors involved be willing to engage in dialogue and reconciliation, to reach agreements and agree on a consensual path forward. Forcing the pace, ignoring real power dynamics, or underestimating the capacity for harm of those who resist relinquishing governmental control can lead to unfavorable scenarios and greater instability. Venezuelan history itself confirms this.
We know that the minority entrenched in Miraflores is reluctant to compete on equal footing, under civic rules and in a context of free exchange of ideas. It is an elite accustomed to unfair advantage, for whom losing power would mean the end of impunity. Hence its fierce resistance to any negotiated exit conducted on honest and genuine terms.
By the way (01/28/2026), the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and stated the following: “The ultimate goal is to reach a phase of transition in which we have a friendly, stable, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela, in which all elements of society are represented in free and fair elections. You can hold elections all day long, but if the opposition does not have access to the media, if opposition candidates are systematically disqualified and cannot run because of the government, those are not free and fair elections.”
Words that are important to take into account in the face of the immediate future.
A Volatile Climate
On the other hand, this clash between a society that legitimately aspires to change and a leadership obsessed with perpetuating itself in power sketches a highly volatile environment. Hence, the central challenge is not only to displace unrepentant autocrats, but also to avoid greater instability. Restoring democracy requires will, political resolve, strategy, social cohesion around a common purpose, and a clear understanding of the limits and possibilities of the present moment under current circumstances.
Our transition must have verifiable democratic content, such as the full and immediate release of all political prisoners, the effective restoration of freedom of expression, and an end to judicial persecution of dissent. These achievements are essential to lend credibility to the change that is only just beginning.
Likewise, it is imperative to approve a General Amnesty Law, conceived with criteria of transitional justice and aimed at fostering civilized coexistence, a fundamental legal framework for mutual understanding in favor of civic peace. It is not about forgetting, nor is it about legitimizing abuses. It is about creating appropriate spaces to process differences and dampen cycles of exclusion. It is about putting a brake on aggressive and violent polarization. It is about opening new paths toward political tolerance.
Finally, international cooperation must be understood as a complement, not a substitute, for internal action. No transition can be sustained if it does not rest on an organized, vigilant society committed to rebuilding legality. Delegating the national destiny to external powers has historically been a recipe for new dependencies and disappointments.
Venezuela finds itself, once again, at a decisive crossroads. Change is a majority and irreversible aspiration, but its realization will depend on the collective capacity to transform social pressure into lasting institutions, rights, and guarantees. Only then will the transition cease to be an uncertain promise and begin to translate into freedom, legality, and national reconciliation.
First published in Spanish by Efecto Cocuyo and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.