Ortega Cursed CAFTA in 2005. Today His Regime Depends on It
as the US threatens to remove it from the trade pact
In 2005, Daniel Ortega led marches to denounce the CAFTA agreement as “a crime,” “a social cataclysm,” and “the new invader.”
HAVANA TIMES – Back in 2005, Daniel Ortega led marches and gave fiery speeches, raging against the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). At the time, Ortega described this new commercial tie between Central America, the Dominican Republic and the United States as a threat to national sovereignty.
During those years of opposition, the now-president launched some of the harshest statements of his political career against the treaty that today sustains much of the Nicaraguan economy:
“The Free Trade Agreement is a real crime against the Nicaraguan people.”
“It would be a real social earthquake, a real social cataclysm, because thousands and thousands of farmers would be left unemployed.”
“If CAFTA is ratified, it won’t be viable, because the people will defend their rights in the streets; today we swear that we will not respect that treaty.”
“CAFTA is the new invader, the aggressor of national sovereignty, which we are obliged to defend, especially in this month [celebrating Nicaraguan independence].”
Two decades later, Ortega governs a country whose economy depends precisely on the treaty he swore not to respect. Half of Nicaragua’s exports go to the United States, the country’s main trading partner.
The United States is now contemplating the most severe economic step yet against the Ortega-Murillo regime: the possible suspension of Nicaragua from CAFTA-DR.
The Office of the US Trade Representative accuses the regime of violating labor, human, and economic rights, and of benefiting from the agreement at the expense of the Nicaraguan people. The process, as outlined in Section 301 of the US Trade Act, could result in punitive tariffs of up to 100% on Nicaraguan exports to the US, with direct consequences for tens of thousands of workers linked to the agro-industrial, textile, and manufacturing sectors.
Manuel Orozco: “It would be a social earthquake for the country.”
Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at Inter-American Dialogue, believes that the investigation “represents the most serious turning point yet in economic relations between the two countries.”
“We are facing a self-inflicted crisis. The Ortega and Murillo regime has used CAFTA to enrich itself politically while dismantling the labor rights that the treaty itself sought to protect,” Orozco said.
According to Orozco, if the suspension goes ahead, Nicaragua will face an export collapse, massive job losses, and a drastic reduction in national income, especially in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
“It’s not just an economic blow; it would be a social earthquake. The regime is facing the consequences of its own authoritarian and isolationist model,” he warned.
Orozco maintains that the new markets in Russia and China that the regime is seeking won’t be able to substitute for CAFTA.
A historic shift full of contradictions
The Sandinista regime’s shift on CAFTA illustrates one of the greatest contradictions of the Ortega-Murillo regime: having gone from rejecting free trade as a symbol of “imperialism” to depending on it as a mainstay of its economy.
As the United States considers unprecedented economic sanctions, the regime faces a scenario in which anti-imperialist rhetoric collides with the reality of its commercial dependence.
The same treaty that Ortega called a “crime” and a “new invader” could become the greatest threat to the economic stability of his government.
First published in Spanish by 100% Noticias and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.