Fewer Cubans Living Abroad Are Traveling to the Island

Tourism in Cuba has been experiencing a profound crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic which shows no signs of recovery.

By Ernesto Batista Sanchez (Progreso Weekly)

HAVANA TIMES – According to official data, 282,983 fewer international visitors arrived in the country in the first four months of the year compared to the same period the previous year (ONEI, 2025). Even more worrying is that, compared to 2019—the last year before the pandemic—the island received 1,187,000 fewer tourists during that same period. One of the segments most impacted by this crisis is VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives). Although this category is not explicitly recorded as a travel purpose in official Cuban statistics, it does appear under the heading “Cubans Residing Abroad” within source markets, representing 15% of international travelers to Cuba in 2019.

Global Importance of VFR Tourism

The VFR segment, as defined by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), includes trips primarily aimed at visiting friends or relatives. This type of tourism is characterized by its predominantly emotional and social motivation, rather than an economic or recreational one, and is often linked to personal or community networks, including past migrations or ethnic ties.

Unlike traditional tourism, VFR travelers do not always rely on commercial accommodations, as they frequently stay in private homes. This trait can lead to underreporting in official statistics, which somewhat obscures their economic contribution to the destination. VFR tourism is widely acknowledged as a significant form of tourist mobility worldwide. In fact, it is likely one of the oldest forms of travel, as visiting family and friends has historically held great social value. Globally, the UNWTO estimated in 2019 that approximately 28% of international travelers used this travel type as one of their primary reasons for traveling (Figure 1).

In the case of Cuban statistics, from a methodological perspective, it is essential to classify the Cuban community residing abroad as a distinct tourist segment that must be considered, not only in terms of absolute visitor volume but also due to its impact on the Cuban economy. An example of this omission is evident in the tourism statistics published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), which do not explicitly identify the VFR segment within travel motivations (Figure 2). However, an analysis of the data indicates that this group is classified under Leisure, Recreation, and Vacation tourism.

The VFR segment presents different needs and behaviors compared to those of Canadian, British, or Russian tourists, making it essential for destinations to design specific strategies tailored to this type of visitor. Although the figures for Cubans living abroad who visit Cuba are broken down and published by the ONEI (National Institute of International Tourism), this aspect should not be overlooked from a methodological standpoint.

The VFR segment exhibits distinct needs and behaviors compared to those of Canadian, British, or Russian tourists, making it essential for destinations to develop specific strategies tailored to this type of visitor.

That said, how important is the VFR market for Cuban tourism?

Statistical figures indicate that the Cuban diaspora represents the second most significant market for tourism on the island. An analysis of historical data—available for this segment only from 2010 onward in the World Tourism Organization’s databases—shows that, since 2015, the significance of the VFR segment in the Cuban tourism sector has been on the rise. This trend peaked in 2019, when over 623,000 Cubans living abroad visited the island, accounting for approximately 15% of total international visitors. In fact, this group has established itself as one of the primary outbound tourism segments to Cuba.

However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the volume of visitors in this segment has not recovered, as official figures indicate. Since 2020, the behavior of Cubans residing abroad has been characterized by significant fluctuations, reflecting the pandemic’s impact and a subsequent partial recovery. In 2020, the total number of visitors declined due to global mobility restrictions. However, in 2021, there was a sharp decrease in both absolute and relative terms, marking the lowest level of the period. Beginning in 2022, a gradual recovery has been observed: arrivals increased in 2022 and 2023, although the numbers remain below those of 2010, when this data began to be reported. As for 2025, there are currently no signs of recovery. During the January-April 2025 period, this segment experienced a notable decline, with just 78,925 arrivals, representing 41.56% of the total recorded during the same period in 2019.

The key is to understand the market

One of the key elements to consider is the close relationship between the performance of the VFR segment and tourist flows from this source market. Although the Cuban diaspora is spread across various regions of the world, the largest volume of visitors in this segment comes from the United States. According to data published by Spadoni, in 2019, approximately 89% of travelers in the VFR segment resided in that country. Despite the decrease in overall visitor numbers since that year—except for 2021—the proportion of Cuban Americans within the segment has remained relatively stable.

These data suggest that, barring structural changes in the market, the evolution of VFR tourism will be closely linked to the flow of Cubans residing in the United States. Moreover, this pattern is not unique to Cuba. As Jackson (1990) points out, tourism visiting family and friends is largely influenced by global migration flows. Therefore, the fact that more than 80% of VFR travelers to Cuba come from the United States—the country that accounts for the majority of Cuban emigration—is not an exception, but rather a typical manifestation of this dynamic. During the first four months of 2025, the downward trend in the VFR segment continues. This decline is particularly severe among those from the United States, with a reduction of more than 63% based on figures from the same period in 2019.

What does the future hold?

The immediate outlook offers no clear signs of recovery for tourism in Cuba. One of the main structural obstacles facing an island territory like Cuba is its high dependence on air connectivity. This factor becomes even more significant in a context marked by the deterioration of relations between the United States and Cuban administrations, which are currently experiencing one of their most tense periods in decades, alongside a progressive reduction in air operations to the island by several airlines.

Last week, American Airlines requested a temporary exemption to further reduce its flights to Cuba during the summer of 2025, citing “increasing challenges to the recovery of passenger demand between the US and Cuba.” The measure includes a reduction in frequencies on the Miami-Havana route and the temporary suspension of service between Miami and Santiago de Cuba. The airline contends that this decision stems from low demand, limited aircraft availability, and adverse market conditions.

Among the factors explaining this decline are a lack of interest among certain visitors, fewer flights utilized by Cuban Americans, new immigration restrictions in the United States, and ongoing deficiencies in the island’s airport infrastructure. Other European airlines, like Edelweiss and Cóndor, have also canceled their routes to Cuba, citing similar reasons.

Similarly, it cannot be overlooked that the complex economic and social situation confronting Cuba negatively influences travel intentions. The critical condition of the national electricity system, high inflation rates, the progressive deterioration of tourism infrastructure, and the profound economic crisis facing the country—frequently highlighted in international media and shared through word of mouth or online by visitors to the island—directly affect Cuba’s image as a travel destination. Although there are currently no specific studies assessing traveler sentiment toward the destination, as is the case in other countries, these factors indicate the need for more comprehensive research from both the academic and tourism sectors. Exploring these perceptions could help identify strategies and alternatives to the multidimensional crisis affecting the country.

Read more from Cuba here on Havana Times.