Keys to Understanding Venezuela’s Next Elections
Venezuela finally set the date of July 28 for their next presidential elections, already marked by the disqualification of opposition candidates and the government’s clear intention to assure Nicolas Maduro’s reelection.
HAVANA TIMES – Now that July 28 has been officially set as the date for presidential elections in Venezuela, several possible scenarios have opened. Questions have also arisen regarding the type of election that will be celebrated in this South American country, now that the clock has begun ticking and political actions will be accelerating.
Four days after the Venezuelan Parliament, controlled by the governing party, sent the National Electoral Council a series of proposals regarding when the elections should be held, the latter institution announced the long-awaited date for the presidential elections. It also established the time periods to define who can compete and what guarantees this process will offer.
Below, we list some doubts and some certainties about the coming months in Venezuela:
1. The date of the elections
One hundred forty-five days are left until July 28, to organize the outside delegations for electoral observation. Judging by past elections, this time span won’t be enough to allow the European Union to send a technical mission to the country, although this matter is contemplated in the agreement signed last October between the Venezuelan government and the principal opposition bloc.
Even though the elections will take place in the second half of the year, as agreed upon during the political negotiations, the established time periods leave little margin for matters the opposition considers key, such as updating the electoral rolls of Venezuelans living outside the country, especially considering that nearly eight million Venezuelans are now in that situation.
2. The disqualification of Maria Corina Machado
Former deputy Maria Corina Machado was chosen overwhelmingly to be the presidential candidate representing the majority opposition bloc. However, she remains banned from running for elected office, and as such will be unable to register her candidacy during the period the Electoral Council established for this purpose, from March 21 – 25.
Machado has called on her followers to remain “serene and steadfast,” and accuses the Chavista forces of being afraid to test their real strength in the ballot box. However, she has offered no comments on the future of her candidacy or the possibility of choosing a new candidate that the Electoral Council would allow to register.
3. Reelection and Nicolas Maduro
The current Venezuelan ruler, Nicolas Maduro, called the calendarization proposed by the Electoral Council a “sacred word.” He assured that the people would “reap a great victory” in the presidential elections, without confirming if he was planning to participate in them, although his party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, has assumed this as a given.
If Maduro confirms his desire for another term, it will be his second reelection and third six-year term as head of government. He has been in power since 2013.
4. The other Venezuelan candidates
Several aspiring candidates have reaffirmed their desire to run in this process. They include current deputies Luis Eduardo Martinez and Jose Brito. It’s likely that there’ll be some ten or more candidates seeking to wrest power away from the Chavista followers, who have held power in Venezuela since 1999.
However, according to the polls, none of these aspiring candidates have enough popular support to mount a real challenge to the powerful ruling party. Only Maria Corina Machado stands out as the Venezuelans’ principal choice in these elections.
5. A 21-day electoral campaign
The top electoral authority (CNE) determined that the election campaign will officially last only 21 days: from July 4 – 25. This leaves four months of preliminary campaigning that – in fact – already began over a year ago and will continue without any regulations.
While Machado continues crossing the country to court votes that she won’t be able to receive directly unless something changes, the government media channels broadcast daily propaganda in favor of Maduro, who they market as a “driver of victories.”
6. The negotiation between the government and the opposition
Even though it all seems to have been decided, both the government and the opposition have recognized that they maintain an open channel of negotiations. This leaves the door open for last minute changes that could include the acceptance of Maria Corina’s candidacy, or a change in the dates for the elections, something that occurred in 2018 after a rapid political accord.
At any rate, if the announced calendar is maintained, the clock is racing for the principal anti-Chavista opposition bloc, which has only 20 days to resolve the status of its candidacy and to register someone that awakens the sympathy of their grassroots supporters. Or alternately, as has happened in the past, opt to abstain from the voting.