The Hemispheric Impact of Tensions Between US and Venezuela
International affairs expert Gerson Revanales describes a region divided by the military operation, while economist Giorgio Cunto highlights uncertainty.
HAVANA TIMES – There is no declaration of war, but the military deployment in the Caribbean carried out by the United States for more than three months is affecting the region far beyond the bombing of vessels accused of transporting drugs to the US.
Division among countries regarding support and military cooperation with Washington, concern that anti-drug operations could spill into other territories, and the security risks of using Venezuelan airspace—flagged by the US, are part of the current landscape highlighted by international affairs expert Gerson Revanales, consulted by Efecto Cocuyo.
Economist Giorgio Cunto notes it is currently very difficult to gauge the economic impact on the region should there be a greater military escalation—one that, he stressed, cannot yet be considered a certain scenario because it depends on US objectives.
It also remains unclear, he added, whether Washington is assessing the domestic and international economic repercussions of a potential armed conflict before taking the air-naval operation beyond the waters of the Caribbean and Pacific.
A Divided Region
“There is a rise in tensions. Beyond the anti-drug fight, the deployment is increasingly perceived as a strategy of maximum pressure on the government of Nicolas Maduro, aimed at weakening it or precipitating a political transition. The presence of major US naval and air assets, such as guided-missile destroyers, attack submarines, F-35 aircraft, and an aircraft carrier, intensifies the militarization of the Caribbean and raises concerns about the possibility of an escalation,” is how Revanales describes the current context.
In his view, the question of whether the scale of the air-naval operation—combined with executive orders authorizing direct military actions against drug cartels on foreign soil—could be the prelude to a more direct intervention in Venezuelan territory or elsewhere in the region cannot yet be answered.
But for the veteran diplomat, there are also signs of broader goals in the region, as it is being reasserted as a US sphere of influence to counteract the presence of Russia and China, including talk of extending the deployment, with plans through 2028 in Puerto Rico.
Caribbean countries such as Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, and the Dominican Republic are cooperating militarily with Washington by allowing exercises on their territory and even the use of port and airport facilities. Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, as well as the Dominican Republic and the Colombian Senate, joined the declaration labeling the so-called Cartel of the Suns as a “terrorist organization.”
On the other hand, Brazil’s president, Lula da Silva, insists he will speak with the US to avoid an armed conflict with Venezuela, and Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, aligns himself with the Chavista narrative that the White House is only interested in appropriating Venezuelan oil, not in democracy or drug-trafficking. However, Petro has also expressed support for a “negotiated solution” to the crisis, with proposals such as a “shared transition” government.
“The deployment consolidates the US military presence in the Caribbean, increasing pressure on Venezuela and dividing the region between those who see it as a necessary step for security and those who view it as a threat to regional sovereignty and peace,” Revanales stresses.
He warns that fears are rising that authorizing direct military operations against cartels on foreign soil—even under the pretext of combatting drug trafficking—could set a dangerous precedent for other countries in the region that also face transnational criminal groups, such as Mexico.
An Airspace Blockade?
Iberia, TAP, Avianca, Latam Colombia, Turkish Airlines, and Gol airlines suspended flights between Venezuela and Europe after the U.S. issued an alert on November 21 regarding the risks of using Venezuelan airspace. In response, Maduro’s administration revoked their flight authorizations, accusing them of “joining terrorist actions” promoted by the White House, which according to Miraflores now seeks to impose an “air blockade” in addition to a maritime one.
When TAP was barred from operating in Venezuela, the Portuguese government countered that its actions are guided solely by the nation’s overriding interests and the “unwavering defense of the safety” of Portuguese citizens anywhere in the world. Portugal’s Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Miguel Pinto Luz, stressed that they do not yield to “threats, ultimatums, or any kind of pressure.”
“It is a security warning from US authorities; it cannot be considered an air blockade,” Revanales agreed.
In statements to Colombia’s Caracol Radio, Sergio París, former director of that country’s Civil Aeronautics agency, expressed concern that Venezuelans, unable to use airspace as an exit route, might be forced to seek land alternatives—potentially overwhelming critical points along the Colombia-Venezuela border, such as Cúcuta.
Cunto said as far as substantial disruptions to economic activity resulting from US–Venezuela tensions, the clearest so far is the halt in air connections due to flight suspensions and subsequent revocation of airline operations in Venezuela.
“Another of the immediate impacts is the reduction in shipments to Cuba from Venezuela (oil) and from Mexico, mainly due to the situation in the Caribbean, which overall affects maritime traffic, as is currently happening given rising tensions in the area. There are no figures yet on how the tensions are affecting oil exports,” he noted.
He added that due to the conflictive situation, economic actors in the region may postpone major decisions—whether investment or expansion—awaiting developments. This, he said, could keep certain economic activities on hold or push those actors toward shorter-term strategies.
Domestic Impact
Cunto warned that an economy like Venezuela’s, with a small formal sector, is highly sensitive to external shocks. As tensions with the US increase, concerns center on greater domestic control that may affect private investment.
“By its nature, the Venezuelan economy has a very weak productive base to withstand a scenario of this kind, with illicit activities still highly concentrated. The Venezuelan economy has been dragging problems for a long time,” he recalled.
He noted that a military escalation poses risks to the national electrical system, which already suffers from deficits, and to oil refineries that—like air connectivity—were already operating in very limited conditions.
During a speech delivered on Thursday, November 27, Maduro said he trusted in a victory for the Venezuelan army and people in the event of an armed confrontation resulting from an external military aggression.
“If we must take up arms, we will do so, and we would have a destiny of triumph and dignity,” he declared.
First published in Spanish by Efecto Cocuyo and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.