“In Venezuela, We Are Now Under a Dictatorship”
The Bolivarian Revolution and Democracy have ended
Luz Mely Reyes and Boris Muñoz analyze Nicolas Maduro’s imposition: “the Nicaraguan path is underway”; “we’ve entered a period of resistance”
By Carlos F. Chamorro (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – Nicolas Maduro was sworn in alone, in a ceremony with a sparse public presence, at Venezuela’s National Assembly. Flanked by Miguel Diaz-Canel and Daniel Ortega—the dictators of Cuba and Nicaragua—he was declared president of Venezuela following what is considered the most well-documented electoral fraud in Latin American history.
Meanwhile, President-elect Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, currently in the Dominican Republic, and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado—who spoke from hiding in Caracas—denounced the event as a “coup d’état” and called for the restoration of democracy.
“What is the takeaway for the more than seven million Venezuelans who voted for Edmundo González on July 28, 2024, given Gonzalez’s diplomatic efforts to assume the presidency, the protests on January 9, and the kidnapping of Maria Corina Machado? What comes after January 10?” I asked Venezuelan journalists Luz Mely Reyes and Boris Muñoz.
In a conversation on the program Esta Semana, which aired on Confidencial‘s YouTube channel on January 12 at 8:00 p.m., due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Reyes and Muñoz discussed the mourning of Venezuelan democracy and the uncertainty faced by the political opposition and civil society in the face of a dictatorship that is following the “Nicaraguan path” and demands acts of resistance.
“On July 28, both the Bolivarian revolution and democracy ended. We are now in an outright dictatorship, and we must figure out the methods to resist this dictatorship. It’s not the same anymore,” said journalist Boris Muñoz, columnist for El País and editor of the platform BOOM.
“Can Nicolás Maduro’s government sustain itself? I do believe so,” said Luz Mely Reyes, director of Efecto Cocuyo. “There is already an example: the regime in Nicaragua has sustained itself, and the line of action in their roadmap for dismantling democracy is to radicalize even further. That would be consistent with their behavior, as they have the power of military force.”
Edmundo González’s Diplomatic Tour
What does the diplomatic tour of President-elect Edmundo González leave for the more than 7 million Venezuelans who voted for him on July 28, and his inability to assume the presidency of Venezuela on January 10? What comes next?
Luz Mely Reyes. Edmundo González’s tour raised the stakes of the decision Nicolas Maduro and his group made to steal the July 28 election. Remember, González, the winner of this electoral process, is exiled to Spain. However, he embarked on a tour across Latin America, including the United States, in recent weeks. This greatly increased the tension and further escalated the cost Maduro’s government had to pay for the decision to steal the election and move forward with this swearing-in ceremony.
For many people who were following the tour, it was hard to say, with the information available at the time, whether Edmundo Gonzalez’s entry into Venezuela could be realized. There was doubt, but his intention to enter Venezuela evidently sparked much hope among his followers who voted for this democratic option.
What can be expected from the US government’s position after January 20? Trump did not meet with Gonzalez during this tour, though he later declared him “the elected president” in a message. On the other hand, there are many rumors about the new US government’s potential interest in negotiating with Maduro on issues related to energy, oil, deportations, and migration to the United States.
Boris Muñoz. Yes, I believe this is the second most important event of January 9, after the temporary kidnapping of Maria Corina Machado. Trump steps forward, driven by his team of ‘hawks’ from Florida: Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, and Mike Waltz, who have a clear stance and are all supporters of the Venezuelan cause. Perhaps they aren’t all close to María Corina, but they have taken an openly anti-Maduro position.
Trump somewhat eliminates the ambiguity that has characterized his stance and hints that he is unwilling to negotiate with a tyranny like the one recently installed in Venezuela. That’s what can be read between the lines. Above all, he distances himself a bit from Senator Bernie Moreno’s position, who said there should be negotiations with Maduro because there are US interests involved in oil and drug control and deportations. Trump has stepped aside from that position, and we’ll see if this will have medium and long-term implications after January 20 when he takes office.
The Protests on January 9 and the Detention of Maria Corina Machado
The protests that erupted on January 9, were called by Maria Corina Machado. What impact do they have on this process?
Luz Mely Reyes. Those protests, which the government tried to discredit as not being massive — the government’s own spokesperson estimates around 10,000 people across the country — the mere fact that they took to the streets, even if it were just 10, 15, 20, or 30 people, with this conviction and peacefully, shows the perseverance of Venezuelan society in defending their votes.
However, it remains to be seen what kind of leadership is present. Because when we saw the protest where María Corina emerged from hiding, she was accompanied by Juan Pablo Guanipa, a leader of the political party Primero Justicia, but other political leaders were not seen by her side. This has two explanations. The first is that many of the people close to María Corina have been persecuted. Others have been imprisoned, and some have had to go into hiding. The second explanation lies in the internal divisions of the opposition itself: while they all want nothing to do with Maduro, they have different approaches to how to confront him.
How do you interpret the kidnapping of Mari Corina Machado? During the nearly four hours of silence and confusion, a video of her was released. It’s unclear whether it was forced by her captors. Later, she shared her version of how she was kidnapped and then released.
Luz Mely Reyes. That was a kidnapping, an act of political violence from those in power. It’s something that other leaders have experienced as well. But in María Corina’s case, it has a much more serious connotation, related to the use of violence to control her, to send a message — we know we can detain you at any moment. However, what stands out is not that they detained her, because the government has said that she is practically the public enemy number one. What stands out is why they released her afterward.Top of Form
Her emergence from hiding, the kidnapping, and then her release — what does that mean? Will she have freedom of action, or has her ability to move and exert political influence been diminished?
Luz Mely Reyes. Maria Corina Machado does not have the freedom to move. She spent 133 days in hiding. Then, after she appeared in public, came the episode of her kidnapping. However, what this shows is the type of leadership that is emerging in Venezuela and the political process that is taking shape. There is a recognized leadership. Maria Corina steps out and faces the public, even to inform them that Gonzalez won’t be able to enter Venezuela. She takes the responsibility of delivering that news because she knows that in the relationship she’s built with the people, that news will be contested, and she is the bearer of the bad news.
What is the resistance strategy?
What is the level of radicalization of Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship today? What is the state of civil society? I ask this question because, in Nicaragua, civil society was swept away. The media, the unions, the social organizations, and more than 5500 NGOs were annulled by the regime, along with fierce persecution against the Catholic Church and the universities. But it seems that in Venezuela, democratic civil society still exists. Does it have the capacity to resist and deal with the radicalization of Maduro’s dictatorship?
Boris Muñoz. The “Nicaraguan path” is underway, and the legal framework already exists. The constitutional reform announced by Jorge Rodríguez, which is being discussed now, is precisely to dismantle parts of society, including NGOs.
On January 9, Diosdado Cabello described what NGOs are to him when speaking about Carlos Correa, the freedom of expression activist who was detained, and he described them as “tools of the US empire to sabotage” and harm these governments. They are “centers of conspiracy,” that’s how he describes them, and what’s coming is the dismantling of civil society; we must resist that too.
That’s why the coming months are very complex, because if the dictatorship is allowed to install itself with all its power, what’s to come will be much harder.
Maduro announced a plan for 2025. He spoke of constitutional reform and adjustments to the system of government. In a column in El País, you describe Maduro as “on the throne with bayonets,” but can he sustain himself economically? Does he have international economic support, and support from the private sector to stabilize his power?
Luz Mely Reyes. The authoritarian structure has a cost to maintain the police state in Venezuela. However, Nicolas Maduro’s government, with all the sanctions in the previous years, was able to absorb them and learn to navigate this environment. What could happen is a deterioration of the economic conditions of Venezuelans because there were specific sanctions from the European Union, the UK, and the US also increased the reward for Nicolas Maduro.
Now, can Nicolas Maduro’s government sustain itself? I believe so because there’s already an example: Nicaragua has sustained itself, and the line of action in their roadmap for dismantling democracy is to radicalize even further. That would be consistent with their behavior, as they have the power of military force.
So, working in such a closed context will require political opposition, as well as civil society forces, to reorganize and create a more consensus-based strategy for resistance actions because we have already entered a period of resistance against this government.
What is the main challenge for the opposition after January 10? Maduro has a plan. Does the opposition and civil society leadership have a resistance plan to remove Maduro from power or create a crisis that will trigger a democratic transition?
Boris Muñoz. That’s a very serious question, and I ask myself the same thing. What is the opposition’s plan to deal with this new scenario? We don’t know. Beyond the mobilizations, the supposed entry of Edmundo Gonzalez to take an oath. For this reason, a new strategy is necessary.
Strategies have worked in the past when there was a clear horizon, like the elections of July 28, and that allowed for a merger of political forces with clear objectives. Right now, we need that objective, and we need a route that lets people understand that when it’s necessary to mobilize and protest, that will happen. I don’t think there are institutional mechanisms to do that anymore. What was shown by the July 28 events is that both the Bolivarian revolution and democracy have ended. We are now in an outright dictatorship, and we need to see what methods can be used to resist this dictatorship. It’s no longer the same.
Participation is very important, demonstrating that people can still mobilize because it forces the government to react. We saw it in these recent days, with all the security deployment.
The reaction on July 28 and 29 was very strong, and it came with the cost of a security apparatus that ultimately caused terrible bad press abroad, beyond the sanctions. I don’t think it helps them much internally either. It’s a government that’s entrenched and very closed off. You saw it yesterday during the inauguration; it has no way out. It’s the complete opposite of what Hugo Chavez was. And I’m not saying this to praise Hugo Chavez, but I’m sure it has nothing of that.