Bookies Say Brits Pulling Out of EU (+ Final results)
HAVANA TIMES — As the clock strikes 4:30 a.m. Friday in London the campaign to leave the European Union has apparently won in a close vote.
Bookies are now saying that the chances of the Remain choice to rebound and win are less than one in fifteen with 106 of 382 polling districts still to report.
The Leave vote currently has 11,176,128 (52%) votes to 10,411,852 (48%) for Remain on the official tally.
As voting began early Thursday, polls and the bookies had the Remain ticket in front by a 4 or 5 point margin, but things changed as soon as the votes started coming in.
The final results were:
Remain 48% 16,141,241 – Leave 52% 17,410,742
A little bit of history and opinion about the future. It was a momentous decision for the United Kingdom (the Kingdoms of England and Scotland) to enter the European Community, for it involved the abandonment of the trading relationships with the former Dominions of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and Colonies in preference for a new trading relationship with Europe.
For example the former purchases of Canadian cheese and apples were replaced with French products.
A month ago friends of mine in Kent (an English County lying between London and the Channel), sought my opinion about Brexit. After prolonged thought, I responded that if leaving the EU, the UK could not revert to its former trading relationships and that for example only one year ago the then Conservative Government of Canada concluded a trade agreement with the EU and that the US was currently trying to form a similar agreement.
Next I forecast an immediate and substantial fall in the value of the British pound if leaving the EU. (It has today fallen from $1.50 US to $1.35).
I pointed out that the UK has changed from a manufacturing country to one whose main export is in providing services and that the EU is its main customer.
I also forecast that Scotland would vote in favour of remaining in the EU and that if the overall UK vote was to leave, Scotland would hold another referendum, leave the UK and re-join Europe.
That the overall effect of these changes would be that the UK would have to change its name to England, Wales and Northern Ireland, its role within the world at large would diminish and that the old phrase of: “Little Englanders” could regain use and possibly with justification.
The “Leave” campaign played upon fears of unlimited immigration from Europe, North Africa, Syria et al. In doing so they ignored that 12% of the employees in the National Health Service are foreigners. Over one million British pensioners live in retirement in the EU, their access to the health and social services provided in the EU will now be threatened,
Does all this have any relevance for Cuba?
Yes, I think it does, for those opposed to EU membership ran a campaign based upon fear and bigotry. If at some time in the future there is open free discussion in Cuba about political change, it can be anticipated that the PCC will run on a campaign of fear – of the loss of ‘free’ education and medical services, of the loss of the $8 per month pension and of Cubans having to take their own decisions rather than everything being controlled by the State.