Scientists predict that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be the least active since 1950.
Eduardo Diaz Fernandez
HAVANA TIMES – Meteorologists at the Department of Atmospheric Science of Colorado State Univerity anticípate that this year’s Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active since 1950. They estimate that 2015 will have only 3 hurricanes (the average is 6.5), 7 named storms (average is 12.0) and only one 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (average of 2.0) .
They report states that one of the main reasons for this is that it is “quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall.” Another reason for the low hurricane activity this year is that “the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present.”
The report, dated April 9, states that “the probability of at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane tracking into the Caribbean” is of 22 % (the average for the past century was 42 %).
|Forecast Parameter (1981- 2010 Median)||Issue Date: April 9, 2015|
|Named Storms* (12.0)||7|
|Named Storm Days (60.1)||30|
|Hurricane Days (21.3)||10|
|Major Hurricanes* (2.0)||1|
|Major Hurricane Days (3.9)||0.5|
The study consisted of a statistical prediction using data from the previous 29 years (1981-2010).
The Department of Atmospheric Science of Colorado State Univeristy began making these forecasts in 1984, with William Gray, Ph.D. as the main author. Since 2006, these studies have been headed by Philip J. Klotzbach, Ph.D., a graduate student of Gray’s.
Named storms: a hurricane, tropical or subtropical storm.
Hurricanes: Tropical cyclones with sustained winds of 74 miles/hour or more.
Major hurricanes: hurricanes with sustained winds of a minimum of 111 miles/hour (178 kilometer/hour). That is to say, a hurricane with a minimum category of 3 in the Saffir/Simpson scale.
El Niño: El Niño South Oscillation is the warm phase of the South Oscillation. It is associated with the heating of the eastern and central part of the Pacific Ocean. It is accompanied by high pressures in the western Pacific and low pressures in the east Pacific. This oscillation is related to weather variations in other regions, such as tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.