Ortega has gained time, say the doomsayers of failure. On the contrary, either they comply with what they signed or they will be exposed to new and definite sanctions.
By Hector Mairena (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – From various sides, well and ill-intentioned, they unleash attacks every day against the Civic Alliance and their performance in negotiations with the Ortega-Murillo regime.
They are criticized because there are no results, they say; because they are useful to the regime, because they are businessmen, because they were not elected, because there are no women in the negotiating team of six, because there are not so many young people (…) anyway, for anything. They seem to obey the slogan: “Shoot the Alliance!”
The delegation of the Alliance could be composed entirely of young proletarian women and already could have been frustrated before the regime. Neither social, gender or generational status is ever a guarantee of anything. They are not either in this negotiation. Representation is a political category, not a sociological one.
But, let’s continue. Whenever I finish reading the criticisms of the Civic Alliance, I ask myself: but, what do you propose? Some invoke the historical recipe of a (new) insurrection. Variations of strategies abound (in social networks): national strike, tax strike, new barricades, international embargo, strike, boycotts, hit the streets. For diverse tastes.
But it turns out that the certainty of the forms of political struggle do not respond to desires. Old and new commentators, forget that. But, let’s go back to the alliance and the results.
For months, between June 2018 and January 2019, we Nicaraguans demanded the regime to dialogue. Meanwhile, the regime unleashed in that period, the repressive wave that we already know, and that certainly battered the citizen movement.
In February (less than three months ago) this new phase of negotiations was installed. That is, the regime was forced to sit down, in spite of the fact that if refused to do so for months.
In these negotiations the regime signed an agreement for the unconditional release of political prisoners that expires in 40 days. As of the date, they have only released 230.
They have not complied, it’s true. But if the deadline arrives and they do not release them, the international community will have more reasons for sanctions.
Before the signing of that agreement, there was no commitment from the regime in terms of prisoner’s freedom, nor was there anything related to the return of exiles or respect for citizen freedom and so on. None.
Those commitments the regime subscribed to, including the release of prisoners, was done in spite of themselves. Or are there some who think that it did it happily out of nobility? No, folks: it was imposed.
It is clear that we Nicaraguans want the immediate release of all the political prisoners, we want freedom, we want justice. And we want more than that: we want the end of the Ortega government. But we also know that the regime has coercive and repressive power. A power that is increasingly isolated and weakened, but that refuses to die and—it must be said—will try to survive in any way. It has not decided to commit suicide, nor would it do it.
In this globalized and geopolitical world, the international factor is extremely relevant. Obviously. And on that plane, how is the regime doing?
Let’s recapitulate. It is in the sights of the international community: the United States has sanctioned officials and members of the Ortega-Murillo family for corruption and murder, the application of the Democratic Charter is underway and the illegality of origin of the Ortega-Murillo Government is already on the table, and widely and abundantly demonstrated. Likewise, the sanctions of the European Union already hang over the dictatorship. Sanctions and measures that have strategically hit the regime.
All this would not have been possible without a negotiating table in which the regime’s unwillingness to contribute to a peaceful and democratic solution was clear, as the Civic Alliance has shown.
Ortega has gained time, say the doomsayers of failure. Which time? To the contrary: a deadline was set for June 18th. Either they comply or they will be exposed to new and definite sanctions.
What has the Alliance given? Nothing, because it has nothing to give.
Every political problem is a problem of strengths. This is an axiom that should never be forgotten. And in our case: the strength shown in the streets, in the civic resistance, in the international scenario and in the negotiating table, has the regime in a terminal crisis. However, it still does not achieve the outcome we all desire and that is on the horizon, but to which we do not arrive yet. We have to get closer.
The regime’s violent communique released on Monday, which focuses on attacks and threats against members of the Civic Alliance, is the best indication of their situation.
Therefore, in my opinion, the balance of the actions of the Alliance, is favorable, beyond the explainable ups and downs in that very delicate mission to negotiate with a mafia that has power and has not hesitated to use it in a criminal and devastating manner, whenever it has considered it necessary.
Don’t shoot the Alliance, because it is not the target.