2015: A Year of Great Expectations for Cuba

Pilar Montes

HAVANA TIMES — This year began, not on January 1, but on December 17 of last year, when something that many Cubans did not think they would live to see took place.

The events that day convinced the most optimistic of the lot that we were witnessing the beginning of the changes that would transform the nation with the same, earth-shaking force we saw January 1, 1959, when the armed rebels led by Fidel Castro triumphed.

For the pragmatic, the events mark the beginning of important changes that could modify the country’s politics and economy and the mentality that prevails in many sectors of Cuban society.

For any rigorous analysis of the situation, we can’t leave out the pessimists, who believe these tremors won’t really shake the foundations of the country or change the daily lives of Cubans.

People were overjoyed to see the three heroes that were still serving sentences in the United States return home after 16 years of injustice. The Cuban Five were finally reunited.

The names of Gerardo, Rene, Antonio, Ramon and Fernando were forever inscribed in the pantheon of the homeland and it is a widespread belief that they will be pillars of any future design for the country.

The release of the Cuban Five was demanded by activists, intellectuals, parliaments, governments and people from around the world in campaigns far more encompassing than the epic mobilization that did not manage to save the Rosenbergs from the electric chair in the United States.

A Long-Awaited Victory

On December 17, 2014, following 18 months of arduous and secret negotiations, the presidents of Cuba and the United States, Raul Castro and Barack Obama, told their compatriots that, after 53 years of conflict, the two governments would begin talks aimed at re-establishing diplomatic relations and other issues that have historically rifted the two nations apart.

Powerful economic interests have convinced Washington that it must regain the ground it has lost in terms of trade and investment, now being occupied by European, Chinese, Venezuelan, Brazilian and Russian capital.

Cuba’s leader also announced that USAID contractor Alan Gross, who had been imprisoned on the island since 2009 for distributing prohibited means of satellite communication to groups that oppose the government, was being released and returned to the United States, part of a group of individuals whose release was of interest to Washington.

In the United States, Obama set free the three Cuban anti-terrorist activists whose return Cuba had long waited for.

Talks between Washington and Havana aimed at re-establishing diplomatic ties will begin on January 21 in the Cuban capital.

It is well worth recalling that, in the more than fifty years elapsed since these relations were broken, former president Fidel Castro and Cuba’s current leader, Raul Castro, appealed to different US administrations to work out and overcome the differences between the two countries and secure the peaceful co-existence of the two States, which are separated by a mere 90 miles.

Much to be Gained

Many are the advantages to be derived from these talks, and not only for Cuba – if we analyze the situation deeply, in fact, we could say the United States has more to gain from them, and not only in the political sphere, now that its influence over Latin American and Caribbean governments is waning.

Powerful economic interests have convinced Washington that it must regain the ground it has lost in terms of trade and investment, now being occupied by European, Chinese, Venezuelan, Brazilian and Russian capital.

Owing to this failed policy of isolating Cuba, now being applied on Venezuela and Russia, the United States and Western Europe have led to a situation in which Latin American exporters are now settling in the space vacated by the suppliers of countries that imposed sanctions on Russia.

At the same time, there are many Cuban government officials and citizens that recall Che Guevera’s words today, to the effect that one cannot trust imperialism one bit.

On January 8, US corporations (some 30 agricultural and livestock companies), upset by these developments, formed the United States Agricultural Coalition for Cuba (USACC), which is to press Congress to have it lift the financial restrictions on US exports to Cuba, from which they must secure an advance payment for all shipments and transactions through third countries.

Bob Stallman, chair of the American Agricultural Federation, said that relaxing restrictions on the financing of trade with Cuba will make US agricultural and livestock companies more competitive on the island.

Paul Johnson, Vice-Chair of the Coalition and President of Chicago Foods International LLC, a company that handles the logistics of product sales in Cuba, said we must put an end to the embargo.

When USACC was officially founded, Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack spoke of the commercial opportunities that would be afforded by the normalization of trade with a market of 11 million consumers, a mere 90 miles away from US coasts.

Missouri governor Jay Nixon, representing the largest farming and cattle-raising states in the country, criticized the complicated bureaucratic process that currently exists, calling it a self-imposed obstacle.

Democrat Senator for Minnesota Amy Klobuchar told a Bloomberg reporter that the effort to persuade Congress will meet with resistance at first, because some members want to hold back Obama’s initiatives and even revert the establishment of diplomatic ties.

The coalition is led by Devry Boughner Vorwerk, Cargill Inc. Vice-Chair for Corporate Issues. Cargill is a food transnational based in Minneapolis.

The Coming Storm

A sober analysis of the pros and cons that these imminent talks will face reveals that a storm is nearing.

On the one hand, there is a Republican majority looking to prevent the implementation of any initiative advanced by Omama (Obamacare in the area of health, immigration reform and now the beginning of talks with Cuba for the normalization of relations with the island).

According to Obama, this last initiative stems from the failure of the policy maintained by 11 previous US administrations vis-à-vis the Cuban government, a policy that has isolated the United States at nearly all international forums.

At the same time, there are many Cuban government officials and citizens that recall Che Guevera’s words today, to the effect that one cannot trust imperialism one bit.

That said, economic interests and the possibility of broadening contacts with Americans and the flow of information to Cuba should temper the habitually arrogant and hegemonic attitude of Washington negotiators and make Cubans open to proposals that are constructive and do not undermine the country’s sovereignty.

Should the longed-for normalization of relations be achieved and the obstacles that restrict trade be removed, granting US citizens the right to travel to Cuba freely, the talks will have been a success.

Addressing the issue of nationalized US properties and the demands surrounding the Guantanamo Naval Base, located on Cuban soil, will most likely be the object of later negotiations.