Cuba 2024: The Year of Collapse
By Francisco Acevedo
HAVANA TIMES – If 2022 and 2023 could generally be considered years of despair and disappointment due to the hundreds of thousands of Cubans who decided to leave the country by any means, convinced that there was no future here, 2024 could be labeled as the year of collapse.
Three nationwide blackouts in the last quarter left the National Electric Power System (SEN) significantly weakened, even prompting the approval of a decree outlining what to do when it happens again in the future. In other words, it’s clear that the country’s upper echelons know it could happen again at any moment.
The energy crisis, far from being resolved, is deepening due to the antiquated and overused state of its old power plants, the fuel deficit, and the government’s financial incapacity (primarily in foreign currency) to reverse this situation.
Last week, before the National Assembly (Parliament), the Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, acknowledged that the SEN “has reached its lowest levels since 2019.” In recent years, five generation units, equivalent to one-third of the demand, have been lost, and distributed generation only produces 37% of its capacity.
Power outages exceeding 1,000 MW have become daily occurrences, with sustained peaks above 1,500 MW and records surpassing 1,700 MW. Prolonged blackouts last 15 to 20 consecutive hours in various parts of the island, and power cuts have even reached Havana, which was previously untouched in past years.
Breakdowns at thermoelectric plants across the island have become countless, with barely a day passing without at least one plant out of service due to failures or maintenance. Turkish floating power plants were employed, but most left the country due to unpaid bills.
Adding to this is the sharp decline in international tourism, with a drop of nearly 50% since 2017.
Two and a half years after US President Barack Obama surprised the world by restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba in 2014, the enthusiasm that followed a notable wave of investments and tourism dissipated. This wave had been driven by agreements signed by major US companies like Google, AT&T, and Major League Baseball, among others.
Some political prisoners were released, internet access expanded, and more private enterprises were allowed within the outdated socialist framework.
The financial implosion that followed—primarily due to the tightening of US policies under Donald Trump, Cuba’s poor economic management, and the disastrous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic—dealt a fatal blow to tourism on the island.
Trump reinstated Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation that severely limits its ability to do business globally and also affects tourist attraction by painting it as an unsafe destination.
Joe Biden’s modest efforts—lifting limits on remittances from Cuban-Americans, increasing bilateral flights, and creating more banking opportunities for Cuban entrepreneurs—have not translated into economic recovery. This is partly because Biden’s administration found its hands tied following the harsh repression after the July 11, 2021, protests.
The humanitarian parole program was his main contribution to US – Cuba policy, but even that has been suspended, with little hope of it resuming as originally designed.
Domestically, many of the thousands of private businesses the Cuban government has permitted to open in recent years are struggling to stay afloat, facing a maze of bureaucratic hurdles and daily uncertainty about whether they’ll be shut down overnight.
The fuel shortage underpins nearly every other issue: low state production, lack of transportation, streets piled with garbage, delays in delivering basic rationed goods (if they even arrive), medicine shortages, and the blackouts. These factors combine to make the current moment even worse than the deep crisis of the 1990s known as the Special Period.
Even the infant mortality rate—once the pride of the regime, with levels lower than those in the United States—has risen significantly, largely because hospitals are barely functioning, plagued by the same problems as the rest of the country.
Hurricanes and earthquakes, which were infrequent in the past decade, have now added to the chaos, bringing casualties not seen in some time following natural disasters.
With Donald Trump on the verge of returning to the White House, potentially with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, expectations suggest that 2025 will bring historic levels of international pressure.
Currently, the Caribbean nation is experiencing one of its most challenging situations in recent history, and the specific measures taken so far do not seem likely to resolve the crisis.
Personally, I believe we have surpassed every stage of agony and are now in the throes of a death struggle. The year 2025 must be the year of definitive liberation.
I’m also hurting for the people of Cuba. And I will also bring two 50lb suitcases the next time I visit.
I’ve always felt, naively maybe, that there are many bright Cubans and Cuban-Americans who could negotiate a constitution that guaranties Cuban independence with democratic and capitalistic values. The current Cuban Administration just needs to step aside, relinquish its power, and Cuban-Americans need to look at a Marshall Plan made for Cuba that will provide the expertise, investments, and fairness that will respect Cuban sovereignty, just as was done with Germany after WWII. To go on, as is, is sheer lunacy and serves no one except for a handful of extreme Castroites who don’t have any good answers for the dilemma that they have helped cause. Just blaming their current conditions on the embargo is, quite frankly, a stupid argument which no longer resonates or keeps people from emigrating to escape misery and hopelessness.
The Cuban government has ran nothing but a giant ponzi scheme for the last 60 years. Instead of paying back the countries that invested in Cuba, the government ( I use the term loosely) now says we can’t pay our debts because we have no money. The Cuban citizens that have invested their work, minds and souls for the last 60 years in the ideaology of revolution now find they have nothing to show for their work, minds and souls.
The Cuban regime has used their ponzi scheme dollars to invest in tourism while ignoring the most basic needs of their citizens. The lack of infrastructure investment is now quite evident and has created an eye popping effect on tourism to Cuba. The Cuban CUP is worthless on the world stage and now they find themselves begging for foreign cash to keep the lights on and feed the populace. The Cuban people scramble to find daily food while the regime drives fancy cars and lives in luxury with ever expanding waist lines while they watch the most talented young people immigrate to countries where they can have a future.
Ponzi schemes never last. Tourists who continue to visit the beaches of Cuba for a cheap vacation with suitcases of “gifts” for the Cuban people either don’t realize they are feeding the ponzi scheme or are aware and simply don’t care. Perhaps their gifts soothe their souls and helps to justify their participation in the ponzi scheme against the very people they profess to help.
At one time, I too, was a suitcase carrying tourist. Then my eyes were opened and I no longer participate in the ponzi scheme.
Cuba is in critical shape. I give it five more years, at most, until total collapse.
Horrible vision, absolutely not acceptable! There is so much waste of food in the world. Why starve people? No need for this slow agony. I’m still coming with my miserable 2 suitcases if only helping few!!!!