Cuba: Playing with Fire
By Francisco Acevedo
HAVANA TIMES – With just a few days to go before the fourth anniversary of the historic protests that occurred in Cuba on July 11, 2021, the government seems to be playing with fire by intensifying blackouts in the capital.
While the lack of electricity is daily bread in the rest of the country, Havana has suffered much less, with a planned average of four hours of outages per day.
However, in the past week, overnight blackouts began, and especially since Friday the energy deficit has worsened, leading to almost continuous 4×4 cycles (four hours with electricity, four without).
In the early hours of Friday, thousands of Havana residents were kept awake and, in a bad mood, had to head to work. Over the weekend, instead of improving, the situation got worse, and the public’s discontent has remained widespread after spending much of the night without fans, suffering from the heat and mosquitoes of summer.
It is extremely hard for a worker to come home—already dealing with transportation issues—and not be able to take a shower, lie down, and recover energy. Some also have to deal with the irritating noise of electric generators (whether from neighbors or nearby workplaces) that interrupt the night’s silence.
A complaint that went viral this week came from reggaeton artist Jorge Junior, leader of the group Los 4, although his message was not well received by everyone due to his traditional complicity with the dictatorship. In fact, before launching his tirade, he mentioned the US economic embargo as a justification for the blackouts.
“I don’t think it’s logical or fair that you cut my power five times a day without warning. I have a nine-month-old daughter and recording equipment that costs a fortune. At least give us a heads-up so I can prepare,” he wrote.
The numbers behind the energy shortage
The eight worn-out thermoelectric plants—which are either malfunctioning or under maintenance—are never able to meet the country’s national demand, estimated at 3,600 megawatts during the summer peak.
According to UNE (the National Electric Utility), five units are completely out of service in Mariel, Nuevitas, Felton (Holguín), and Rente, while three more are under maintenance in Santa Cruz, Cienfuegos, and Rente (Santiago de Cuba).
UNE reported that on Thursday, at 10 p.m.—the hour of highest demand—the country faced an electricity deficit of 1,691 MW, and during the day the average available power was just 1,700 MW.
On Friday, according to the official report, a new historic record in energy deficit was reached—1,977 MW—surpassing the previous high of 1,901 MW recorded on April 23.
Where does the foreign currency go?
People continue to ask what the few foreign currencies entering the country are being used for, since there is no food, no transportation, and no medicine either.
The floating power plants rented from a Turkish company (of which only two of the original seven are still operating) are not enough, nor are the photovoltaic parks that are currently being prioritized.
Moreover, the electricity generators that supplement the national energy system in the state sector run on fuel that the country struggles to import, so they also cannot be operated at full capacity.
With high temperatures and increased energy use due to fans and air conditioners, the population is on edge, awaiting yet another sudden nationwide disconnection from the National Electric System (SEN).
Since the beginning of the year, authorities have repeatedly said they are working to stabilize the system and reduce blackouts—even claiming that things would improve by summer—but nothing matches the harsh reality of the average Cuban.
Now, there’s hype around an energy alliance with Russia to modernize and restore the deteriorated energy system—specifically, to repair three 100 MW generating units and construct a new 200 MW unit with funding from a Russian loan that includes $60 million for fuel purchases and another $2 million for acquiring parts and components.
But there is widespread distrust about the repayment of that loan, given past defaults to not only Russian creditors but also Chinese and others, which could render the project meaningless.
The other reality and public uncertainty
As we noted last week while covering the interview between Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel and Brazilian journalist Breno Altman, the country’s top leadership lives in a parallel reality, far removed from that of the Cuban people.
After experiencing four nationwide blackouts since October—some lasting days—as well as daily cuts of up to 20 hours in other provinces, public discontent is rising, and another uprising could erupt at any moment.
Let’s remember that four years ago, it was precisely a long day without electricity that triggered the uprising in the western part of the country, which then spread across the entire island.
If this tension continues to build, a spark could ignite another mass protest—one that has so far been held back by the fear of brutal reprisals following the events of July 11.
But everything has a limit, and right now it’s dangerously close—coincidentally, just as the most ominous date for Diaz-Canel and his inner circle draws near. All it takes is a single spark.
The brutality of the Castros response to the July 11 protests cut the heart out of the likelihood it being repeated. Moreover, since the protests were largely organic, it is not certain that a planned rebellion would be a successful strategy. I don’t think Cubans are hungry enough, hot enough, frustrated enough to overcome their fear of consequences.