Is the Future of Cuba’s Revolution Truly Guaranteed?

Cuban "Pioneros" - Photo: Caridad

HAVANA TIMES, March 22 — After 50 years of a socialist government and highly personalized leadership, lots of people on and off the island are wondering what’s next for Cuba when Fidel Castro and his brother Raul are gone.

Some supporters of the Revolution had put their hopes on a generational change in leadership, which included younger cadres like former Vice President Carlos Lage or Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque.

However, that possibility went down the drain after these men were sacked by the government on grounds of corruption.

If you browse through the Juventud Rebelde newspaper website, you can find several articles referring to recently held meetings of top Communist Party officials with the Young Communist League (UJC).  At most of those meetings an often used phrase was heard: “The future of the Revolution is guaranteed.”

What’s your opinion?

Are the Communist Party officials a bit overoptimistic?

What will happen when the lives of the historic leaders inevitably come to an end?

Will young Cubans be convinced enough to carry on with the economic model that their predecessors have bequeathed them in the name of social justice?

Or will they opt for a less paternalistic and less centralized political system?

Will the transition be smooth and gradual, or will there be turmoil involved?

Join the debate


14 thoughts on “Is the Future of Cuba’s Revolution Truly Guaranteed?

  • If socialism is in fact based on “revolutionary science,” then the question of workable reform of the present system ought to proceed in a truly scientific manner.

    Science is based on the Scientific Method, and the heart of this method is “experimentation.”

    Pursuit of reform in Cuba therefore should ask: “Upon what experimental hypothesis should the further Cuban experiment be based?”

    Our nascent US movement recommends that the historic revolutionary leaders look at the successful, worker-owned, cooperative corporations in the Basque region of northern Spain. We believe these “Mondragon” cooperatives show the world movement a workable “economic” basis for socialism–if coupled with state power is in the hands of a sincere revolutionary party.

    The new hypothesis should be: 1) cautious, experimental transfer of part ownership of most state enterprise to cooperative, worker-controlled corporations on the Basque model, and 2) respect for small entrepreneurs.

  • This is very interesting. I did not find any comments from Cuban citizens
    As long as the younger generations continue to be isolated from the rest of the world do not expect the germ of democratic institutions to grow. Without the freedom to associate and create solid civic institutions it will be a one man for itself when the “Titanic” fiasco of 50 years of absolut goverment controls come to its inevitable end

  • The question largely depends. However, I challenge the Cuban people to consider the alternatives in how to move towards reform more thoroughly than Eastern Europe or East Asia. The Eastern European model of reform, the dismantling of socialism and its replacement with absolute free market, created entrenched oligarcies increasingly dominated by ex-Stalinists the further east you go. Today, oligarchies and crony capitalism dominate Russia, Ukraine, and their neighbors.

    As far as China is concerned, you have increasing wealth disparity and a dictatorship which is politically both far more parternalistic and authoritan than the Cuban state. Market Communism and China’s NEP has corrupted the ideology and party in the process, and racial minorities remain oppressed.

    Reject both models. Cuba should move in the direction of the idealized Communist democracy and abandon its stalinist routes, where free speech, democratic ownership and transparency regulate what the market does not.

  • It’s fairly certain that, if the leadership doesn’t zero in on the central question of reform, and come up w/ the correct answer, the Cuban experiment in socialism will follow the Soviet and other European experiments. This means of course that it will disappear.

    What is the “central question” of reform? It is the nature of a “workable” socialist economic mechanism.

    What reforms would make the present dysfunctional, unworkable, demoralizing system functional, workable and exuberant?

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The hypothesis of “concentration of all the instruments of production in the hands of the state” has been well tested in the honest laboratory of history. It works, but is works very badly, and for only a certain number of decades–perhaps 5 to 9.

    For a new hypothesis the PCC should look at the Mondragon, Spain cooperative experiment. Our movement suggests worker-owned cooperative corporations with only partial state ownership.

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