Venezuela and Negotiating with Dictatorships
By Javier Herrera
HAVANA TIMES – Negotiating with a dictatorship is often an unpleasant task whose outcome is almost certain to be disappointment. Dictatorships only think about ways to perpetuate themselves, and regardless of the commitments they make at a given moment, they are always ready to violate agreements if they feel their status is threatened. The regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is currently demonstrating this by strongly undermining the “Barbados Agreements,” which could lead to the re-imposition of economic sanctions that were lifted at some point.
On October 17, 2023, the Maduro government and the Unitary Democratic Platform (Venezuelan opposition political alliance) signed two provisional agreements in Bridgetown, Barbados, focusing on the promotion of political rights, electoral guarantees for all, and the protection of the nation’s vital interests.
Delegations, represented by Jorge Rodríguez and Gerardo Blyde, accompanied by diplomatic representatives from Norway, Barbados, Russia, the Netherlands, Colombia, Mexico, and the United States, agreed on points such as respect for the right of each political grouping to select its presidential candidate, the implementation of electoral guarantees, and the holding of presidential elections in the second half of 2024.
On October 18, 2023, after the treaty was signed, the United States Treasury Department issued four licenses to ease certain sanctions against Venezuela’s oil, natural gas, and gold industries for six months, until April 18, 2024, and removed secondary trading restrictions.
The Treasury Department warned that the decision would be revoked if the Venezuelan government does not honor its commitments in the agreement. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken clarified that they expect the definition of an electoral schedule, the enabling of all presidential candidates, and the release of political prisoners by the end of November. The license would only be renewed if Venezuela fulfills its commitments under the electoral roadmap and other obligations related to unjustly detained individuals, according to the statement from the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
A few days after the signing of the Barbados agreements, the Venezuelan opposition held Primary Elections, a democratic exercise organized by civil society without any government support. Voting centers were set up in homes, parks, and party headquarters. Despite heavy rain, threats, and logistical obstacles, voters from across Venezuela defied these challenges to exercise their rights.
Out of the 10 candidates competing for the right to challenge authoritarian Nicolas Maduro for the presidency of Venezuela, former National Assembly deputy Maria Corina Machado (of center-right inclination) emerged victorious with around 93% of the counted votes, leaving her closest competitor with only 5%.
Apparently, the ruling regime expected a fragmented vote, and upon learning of the almost unanimous voters decision, they attempted to circumvent the popular will and the spirit of the commitments made. The elected deputy is a staunch enemy of the Maduro regime, and for this reason, Maduro would not want to risk competing with her for the country’s presidency, especially considering her strong popular support and the erosion of his own prestige.
Government spokespeople immediately declared that Maria Corina Machado would not be a candidate in the presidential elections in any form, citing the argument that she is disqualified from holding public office for 15 years by administrative decision. However, they conveniently forgot the commitment to provide all necessary freedoms for the fulfillment of the agreements, release existing political prisoners, and lift any prohibitions or disqualifications against opposition figures.
Orders for the detention of journalists and human rights defenders, attacks on adversaries, and other government actions have marked the beginning of 2024. After months of discrediting the opposition, on January 22, the Attorney General of Venezuela, Tarek William Saab, reported that a total of 31 people, including civilians and military personnel, had been detained in Venezuela since May 2023 for allegedly being involved in five conspiratorial plans, including the assassination of President Nicolas Maduro and attacks on military facilities —a very convenient move at this moment to target people opposed to the government.
In the wave of repression unleashed by the government, with clear intentions to intimidate, divide, and dismantle the opposition, citizens Juan Freites, Guillermo Lopez, and Luis Camacaro, campaign leaders for opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, were arrested and have been unreachable by family or lawyers since January 23, the day they were detained.
On January 26, Attorney General Tarek William Saab confirmed that law enforcement agencies arrested these citizens, accusing them of being linked to a conspiracy in which they served as logistical support for the terrorist group intending to attack several military barracks.
On the same day, the Supreme Court declared “unfounded” the appeals attempted by María Corina Machado, thus confirming her 15-year political disqualification imposed by the General Comptroller’s Office. The appeals filed with the Supreme Court by the opposition presidential candidate adhered to the procedure agreed upon by the parties under the Barbados Agreement to allow all political parties in the country to choose their candidates for the presidential elections and promote the authorization of all candidates and parties to participate in the 2024 elections.
After the entire plot orchestrated by the Venezuelan regime, the continuity of the Barbados Agreements, the democracy of the upcoming elections (for which no date has been set yet), the seriousness of the agreements made, and the credibility of the ruler as a democratic interlocutor are all called into question, making it clear that negotiating with dictatorships and dictators is like pouring water into a basket: a futile endeavor.