Nothing in Venezuela Is What It Seems
There would apparently be a change of political regime, but there was only a handover of command with different mandates.
By Silvio Prado (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – As the days pass since the US assault on Caracas to hunt down Maduro, some keys to what happened are becoming clear. The justification is not what it was, the background of the operation is not what has been publicized, nor will the results be what the long-suffering Venezuelan population — tormented by the chavista dictatorship — had long hoped for. Sad is the fate of Venezuela, which from the air looks like a kingdom of abundance and well-being, but on the ground deterioration and misery spread.
For a year Trump had been repeating that the problem with the Venezuelan regime was its leadership of drug trafficking, flooding poor and passive US consumers with drugs. Once, and in passing, he brought up his interest in Venezuelan oil and other natural resources. That was the narrative. Once the January 3rd strike was carried out and, emboldened by having the top prize in his hands, he brought out the true arguments.
Rarely has an imperial leader confessed his unmentionable purposes with such shamelessness. It was about oil, and in case it wasn’t clear he repeated it 20 times (or was it 27?). How many times did he mention the Cartel of the Suns, which he claimed was led by Maduro? Zero. How many times did he talk about restoring democracy and freeing political prisoners? Zero. The only times he talked politics was to massage his own ego, to underline that HE would be in charge of that country. It seemed he was arriving to liberate Venezuela, but in reality he was only coming to take possession of it.
The capture of the tyrant delighted millions, especially Venezuelans scattered around the world, and gave hope to those suffering under other dictatorships, such as Cubans and Nicaraguans. After all, it was one fewer dictator on the list. However, that’s not how it turned out. It was about cutting off only one head of the chavista hydra while leaving the rest in place. It wasn’t even the typical move of changing everything so nothing changes; rather, nothing was changed so that everything would remain the same.
This is what has happened inside chavismo: a surreal move in which King Maduro goes to New York and the rook Delcy goes to Miraflores. There would apparently be a change of political regime, but there was only a handover of command with different mandates. Now the estate will have new owners — who will in no case be the Venezuelan people.
It appeared that the US incursion, as in Panama 36 years ago, would install in government the winner of the last elections, in this case Edmundo Gonzalez. But it’s now known that will not happen. A political opposition that — short of armed struggle — has tried everything to shake off a regime of terror, corruption, and misery has been sidelined. The most astonishing thing has been the arguments used by the imperialists to push aside Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado: that they do not have the support or respect of the country.
What more backing do they want than the more than 60% of the vote the opposition ticket obtained a year and a half ago? And then the other brazen argument: that the opposition leaders are outside the country. Yet it was the USA themselves who took María Corina out of Venezuela on a boat. How can one be so cynical? Thinking badly, one could suspect that they forced her out to have the alibi for a plan they had been plotting for a long time.
It seemed Washington was committed to restoring democracy, but, in reality, it was only interested (in the strict sense of calculating benefits) in nominally placing at the head of Venezuela a regime capable of guaranteeing lucrative gains. It seemed there was mutual hostility, but in fact they had been chummy for years. As has been repeated these days: a replacement of vassal tyrants was preferable to risking the possible chaos of a democratic transition.
It seemed Maduro was a revolutionary leader who would die with his boots on, and that his wife — “the first combatant” (could there be anything more corny?) — would as well; but they surrendered meekly once they saw they were finished. One would have expected them at least to sleep with a pistol under the pillow as a last resort, but they preferred to give up.
They thought they lived securely, protected by who-knows-how-many rings of praetorians, but as the results show, it did him little good to surround himself with hundreds of guards armed to the teeth if a house cat opens the doors to the enemy. Ay, for the Cubans who died uselessly.
It seemed that a military caste at the head of an army equipped with latest-generation weaponry — including Sukhoi jets and sophisticated Russian-made anti-aircraft batteries — would be the best guarantee for repelling possible US raids. However, the much-exalted Bolivarian National Armed Forces did not utter even a “moo” the night of January 3rd. Nor did the supposedly infallible counterintelligence agency detect the CIA cell that had been operating on Venezuelan soil since August 2025. And of course, it did not detect the “mole” who opened the door to the attackers.
It seemed Maduro was backed by the leaders of the power circles. It seemed he could trust them blindly, in their loyalty to chavismo and their cross-checking of each other. It seemed their loyalty was bomb-proof… but as has become known, it was not proof against 50 million dollars or the promise of power. What is known is that the maximum leader had been set up for a very long time.
Finally, it seemed the dictator was insured against all harm because he had the umbrellas of geopolitical powers: Russia and China. But in practice they left him with his backside exposed. Russia protested the violation of Venezuelan sovereignty (what nerve!), and China — besides evacuating its terrified “cooperants” from Fuerte Tiuna — waited 48 hours to issue its condemnation.
Maduro’s downfall — like any Venezuelan soap opera — promises to be a long one, with as many chapters as the new masters and the new-old rulers acting like dictators or despots, wish. But also, as many chapters as the fragile balance among their capos will allow.
Meanwhile, do not be guided by appearances. The final question is whether chavismo and its Maduro offshoot have ever been what they pretended to be.
First published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.
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