The Unmentioned Cause of Syria’s Civil War

“In my view, oil and gas resource limits are major contributors to the conflict in Syria.” – Gail Tverberg

Erasmo Calzadilla

syria-1HAVANA TIMES — It will have been four years since civil war broke out in Syria this March. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look to be the last year of conflict. Hundreds of thousands of deaths, more than two million refugees, fifty thousand disappeared persons, an economic infrastructure that has been razed to the ground and the rise of religious hatred are the most evident results of this bloody conflict.

Much has been written about the causes of the war, but there’s one fact analysts tend to overlook: in 1996, oil production in the country reached its peak and has been declining unstoppably ever since.

Syria-2Oil production in Syria is dropping steadily, not because a handful of politicians are meddling in the sector (as many believe is happening in Venezuela). It’s quite simply because the subsoil has no more to give.

If politicians, experts, civil society and common folk had understood the gravity and irreversibility of the problem in 1996 and acted accordingly, we could have well averted the current catastrophe. But no, people partied on, and harder than ever. The population and consumption of fossil fuels went up and Bashar Al Asad (who has been in power since 2000) flung the country’s doors wide open to let capitalism in.

Syria-3With decreasing production and a population that would not stop growing, there was hardly any oil left to export by 2010. Finding itself in a tight corner, the government ceased subsiding fuel and the price of food skyrocketed. The political crisis would detonate one year later.

The mass media in the West chalked up the Arab Spring revolts to the broadening of people’s democratic and civil consciences, achieved thanks to Web 2.0, portable phones and social networks. The reality is quite different from this caricature.

Syria-4Libya, Yemen and Egypt threw out their old despots but haven’t been able to stabilize their situation. This time around, we aren’t dealing with dinosaurs that thwart development and curtail freedoms, but with an energy problem: these countries, which were once oil-exporters, no longer have enough crude to maintain a social system designed for times of abundance. If a new balance is reached through peaceful means, the horsemen of the apocalypse will do it their way.

Syria-5Looking at Cuba

Let us now move to Cuba. Oil production is declining non-stop at home and in Venezuela. The country’s energy consumption (which has remained stable till now) will collapse from one moment to the next, plunging the island into a crisis of unpredictable consequences.

Neither renewable resources nor new investors nor US tourists are going to pull us out of the fire. The only way to avoid the crash and the worst scenarios is to drastically reduce oil consumption and working for energy and food self-sufficiency. Will we have the maturity needed to understand what is happening and to organize an effective response?

Note: For this post, I relied chiefly on an article by Gail Tverberg published in 2013, Oil and Gas Limits Underlie Syria’s Conflict”. Tverberg is an expert consultant for energy issues, a member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and author of the blog Our Finate World.


Erasmo Calzadilla

Erasmo Calzadilla: I find it difficult to introduce myself in public. I've tried many times but it doesn’t flow. I’m more less how I appear in my posts, add some unpresentable qualities and stir; that should do for a first approach. If you want to dig a little deeper, ask me for an appointment and wait for a reply.

12 thoughts on “The Unmentioned Cause of Syria’s Civil War

  • February 25, 2015 at 1:02 pm

    My I suggest nuclear power for Cuba. It can be built today. Fuel is a small volume 60 years worth can be stored on site. China or Russia would be a good sources for design work.

  • February 2, 2015 at 6:44 am

    No, I’m referring to the pro-democracy protesters who marched against Assad before the fighting began. Obama cut them off from support and insisted on calling Assad a reformer. Assad slaughtered the students. After that he fighting began and the Islamist extremists moved in. By then, it was too late.

    Now, three years later, the US is trying to find “acceptable” rebels to arm. But the acceptable rebels are either dead or fled. Only the Islamist extremists remain.

  • February 1, 2015 at 11:23 am

    The GOUSA has never wanted any true democratic form to come into being .
    Its 100 year foreign policy strategies were overwhelmingly aimed at overturning democratic elections, preventing democratic elections and helping squash human rights struggles around the world. .
    Have you not read “Killing Hope ” yet ?
    How can you even use the word democracy in reference to U.S. foreign policy without gagging ?

  • February 1, 2015 at 11:18 am

    Take a look across the so-called Arab Spring states and it is easily seen that they are all failed states and all have relapsed not only into totalitarian forms but now even more regressive theocratic forms .
    The borders in the Middle East were created by European colonialists and the people of those areas being tribal and of different religions and cultures are in the process of reforming those borders .
    The Christians have gotten over the need to talk about Christendom but the very insecure and more primitive Muslims are now talking about a caliphate which would be a Muslim state that encompasses all or many of the now existing Muslim states with those European -drawn borders.
    Like all religions , the Muslims depend on the ability to force their faith onto their children but unlike all but the fundamentalist/extremists in Judaism and Christianity, the Muslims want to enforce THEIR primitive and totalitarian way of life on everyone .
    This is jihad on the part of a religion that is irrational and primitive. It will not take no for an answer.
    This is a war that will end only when the world is educated to its full potential and realizes that there is no supernatural aspect to our existence and that those old books were written by very primitive and ignorant men and those societal rules are not applicable to an educated race.
    That said, in the USA , 98% of scientists -people with master’s degrees or doctorates – believe in evolution as a fact.
    In the general, lesser educated population, that figure is 65% .
    That means 35% of those in the USA actually believe in a divine creator .
    Good luck with that thinking.
    I just had my DNA traced ….National Geographic is doing a study….. My DNA was traced back to where all humans originated and that is somewhere around modern-day Kenya and 60,000 ( SIXTY THOUSAND) years ago. .
    The only people with pure human DNA are the Africans who never left Africa and never got a chance to interbreed with the Neanderthals and Denisovans as did those humans who migrated north into Europe where those extinct races lived alongside homo sapiens.
    Most white people have something like 2.7 per cent Neanderthal and /or Denisovan DNA .
    This fact really gets the racists going and don’t even think of mentioning it to the Jews and Christians who think the Earth is only 6000 years old.
    So the religious craziness that drives Islam must also be seen in how it affects many aspects of life in the non-Muslim world as well.
    Religion does poison everything and as Christopher Hitchens put it ( paraphrased but true to the spirit ) ” We would only begin to achieve the heights of which our race is capable if we were to discard these primitive and totalitarian beliefs of our race’s intellectual and scientific infancy.” .

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