Cuba: Current Joys, Future Dangers

Pedro Campos

Presidents Obama and Castro gave simultaneous speeches on December 17. Photos. –

HAVANA TIMES — President Raul Castro’s and Barack Obama’s simultaneous announcements about the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Cuba and the United States and the return of the three Cuban agents imprisoned in the US unleashed a wave of optimism among the Cuban people.

Nearly all Cubans I have spoken with feel hopeful and believe this development will lead to a definitive change in the complicated relationship between the two countries, clearing the way to a new era of cooperation and understanding. They also hope that this will soon be reflected in Cuba’s internal situation.

Even the traditional government supporters, concerned about the United States’ ulterior motives, are mostly glad about the easing of tensions that this entails at many levels for Cuban society in general. Some are still skeptical.

Obama’s speech makes it very clear that the United States is trying to have an impact on Cuba’s situation, now from a posture of rapprochement. But we should not turn down the United States’ offers in a reflex reaction of opposition to anything that comes from “imperialism”. We should, rather, find a new way of co-existing with the powerful neighbor, to which we are bound in many ways, in which respect towards national and popular sovereignty and international law also allow for economic, political, and cultural relations that are beneficial to the future of both nations.

We will not arrive at a post-capitalist society, which some of us refer to as democratic socialism, through coercion. We will arrive at it by creating and developing the bases for that system within our society today. In this process, the United States has a lot to offer Cuba, and vice-versa.

It is also clear that the government elites in both counties are trying to profit from this rapprochement. This doesn’t mean, however, that the people and workers cannot profit also. This new climate of eased tensions between governments is indispensable to the economic, political and social development of the Cuban people.

The fear of this new relationship is one of the hidden faces of the old, Stalinist mindset.

A process of democratization in Cuba, as I have explained in other posts, is in keeping with the interests of the government, the opposition and the broad democratic Left. This development, assumed by all in a constructive fashion, should be the beginning of this much-needed process.

The joy over the re-establishment of diplomatic relations has been such that doing anything to revert the process of understanding began by the two presidents could prompt an upheaval, owing to the high hopes the Cuban people have placed on this. In fact, the minority that has expressed its opposition to this development is becoming more and more isolated.

Because of this, we will have to work to skirt the dangers we could run into down the road, stemming from the backward-minded and conservative sectors on both sides.

Certain figures in Cuba’s émigré community have expressed their discontent and declared that they will do everything in their power to hinder President Obama’s policies. Some members of Cuba’s internal opposition have also made their disagreement known. They don’t realize they are swimming against the current and that they are lagging behind the interests of the majority in Cuba.

To be in favor of democracy is to be in favor of pluralism, diversity, respect towards differences, peace, reconciliation, open exchange and harmony. Those who oppose heading down this road and undertaking a complex but necessary process aren’t showing very democratic or peaceful inclinations and run the risk of isolating themselves from the flow of history.

In Cuba, we must pay particularly close attention to actions that groups opposed to this turn of events may undertake in order to hamper the process, both within the traditional opposition and the government-Party-State, groups that could play into each other’s hands.

The conflict between Cuba and the United States has been a business from which many in the opposition and a large number of bureaucrats have profited.

US funds destined to groups and currents opposed to the new course may disappear, while the Cuban government works to readjust its military and security schemes to address the new reality (something which would bolster the health of State finances and budgets).

No few people will feel nostalgia for the old days and continue to want to profit from the juicy business of confrontation.

The Cuban government must not only demonstrate it is willing to co-exist peacefully; it must also take clear and vigorous measures against officials that create conflicts that could compromise the future, just as the US government will have to keep extremist groups seeking to sabotage this process in check.

Both governments will have to be patient and process the discontent of some citizens and their opponents, in order not to confuse the actions and declarations of some officials and lobbies as the official stance of their counterpart.

Other measures will be needed to gradually regain the trust people have lost after so many years of multilateral confrontation.

We cannot forget that, while the Clinton administration was attempting a rapprochement with Cuba, planes piloted by the group Brothers to the Rescue continued to carry out actions the Cuban government considered provocative, and that these planes were ultimately downed and all constructive efforts by the administration were razed to the ground.

We must be on the alert to avoid similar situations from repeating themselves and frustrating or ruining the joy of the Cuban people.

This opportunity for peace and understanding should not be missed by any Cuban interested in the prosperity and wellbeing of our people.

13 thoughts on “Cuba: Current Joys, Future Dangers

  • Albeit disappointed with his strategy, I take Obama at his word. Through engagement maybe greater pressure can be brought to bear on the regime to bring about change. Maybe with their hope that a concession here or there will bring much needed capital and investment to the island, the pace of change, which is inevitable either way, will quicken. Obama is making the bet that Cuba five years from now will be run by someone other than Fidel and Raul. The cult of personality is so strong in Cuba that in the absence of these two tyrants, the hope for change will increase significantly. On the ground, the situation in Cuba is visibly worsening almost as fast as when the Castros lost their Soviet wetnurse. How much longer can Madure continue to send 100,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba? The regime predicts food imports to increase to 85% of need in 2015. The agricultural reforms have clearly failed. By the way, the Cuban people were already damned. I am hoping this new strategy will work at least as well as the old one. Either way, the Castros won’t be around much longer. Why not try something new?

  • A Walmart and a Starbucks, yes, with the Castro regime making a cut off the top. But I do not see democracy or human rights coming to Cuba any time soon.
    Obama has declared to hell with political change, let’s do busine$$. The Cuban people be damned.

  • Lo que sea. The point is that Cuba has nothing to offer the US except cheap labor. Everything that Cuba is good at, the US is better at. We don’t need engineers, or sports technicians or doctors from Cuba. We are too health-oriented to buy a lot of the cigars and Bacardi makes a better rum than Havana Club. The only thing Cuba can do for the US is allow us to exploit them. We are good at that and Cuba has been a beggar nation since ….forever.

  • jajajajajajaja! Good analogy again, Moses. 😉

  • The Starbucks will serve tourists and the Cuban elite nouveau riche. Walmart won’t have a retail outlet, but they might use the dirt cheap Cuban labour to assemble crappy consumer products for the U.S. retail giant.

    This will not be a happy future for the Cuban people. They’ve been sold down the river.

  • Under the new foreign investment law there are now loopholes which allow majority foreign investment. Cuba time will last only until Fidel dies and/or Raul is out of office. The only force in nature stronger than ideology is sex and money. Foreigners bring the money and Cubans provide the ………

  • One man’s honey is another man’s bile. A handful of generals are the de facto owners of a bunch of near empty buildings on the Malecon near Malecon y Aguacate. When the island flips, these generals or their survivors know that real estate speculators from all over the world will pay MILLIONS for prime ocean-front real estate. To this oligarchy, this is honey. If you happen to be a poor Cuban forced to relocate when the new owners come in to renovate these buildings and resale them as condos, this is bile.


  • Honey or bile?

  • The US will continue to subvert Cuba, this is not about human rights it is about being able to plunder and pillage Cuba resources……but like thay say “No pasaran”!

  • Good analogy, Moses. I agree totally…that’s the “carrot” that I was always promoting as a much better means of motivating and securing positive change in Cuba. And that’s what your President is now supporting too. But the US has met their match if anyone thinks that the old ‘bait and switch’ tactic will work in Cuba. Keep dreaming that there will soon be a Starbucks or Walmart there too. It just ain’t gonna happen…at least not in the foreseeable future. How many in Cuba currently have the disposable income to support such American chain stores? Also, what makes you think that the Cuban government won’t continue to insist on retaining a 51% share in any foreign business contracts? There’s still a bumpy road ahead if American interests think they can simply muscle their way in to “exploit” opportunities in Cuba. Everything will continue to progress on ‘Cuba time’.

  • Griffin, there is a saying in the US. “You can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar”. I suspect that Obama has given the Castros a peek inside the candy store. The Castros love free stuff. To the extent they have to cut back on beating middle-age women and attacking helpless boats, they will do so if they believe there is a handout to be earned. If we are good at anything, the US is the master of the bait and switch. There is a Starbucks and a Walmart Superstore in Cuba’s very near future.

  • Pedro wrote, “We must be on the alert to avoid similar situations from repeating themselves and frustrating or ruining the joy of the Cuban people.”

    How about this?

    “Cuba’s Coast Guard sinks boat carrying 32 refugees who were trying to reach Florida”

    It’s clear that the Castro regime still believes it can repress & murder the Cuban people with impunity. What’s Obama going to do about it, take back his promise to open a US embassy in Havana? Ask Raul to send the 3 spies back to a US prison? Send Alan Gross back to a Cuban prison?

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