What’s Looming for Cuba?

By Yasser Castellanos
SPECIAL THREAT.  By Yasser Castellanos

HAVANA TIMES —For the last five years Cuba embarked on a mild economic reform program that Raul Castro repeats will be implemented gradually without haste. Some indicators are up, others are down. Tourism and family remittances are up, food and most industrial production stagnate, the price of the main exports remain average to low.

One of the big question marks for the Cuban economy is whether the government of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, Cuba’s source of oil under very favorable conditions, is able to remain in power.  If the opposition succeeds in forcing a recall referendum this year, few analysts believe that Maduro can survive, as his government is blamed by even past supporters as being responsible for the economic debacle facing the oil rich country.

Will the prolonged energy crisis of the 1990s and early 2000’s return to the island? This is an illustration by Yasser Castellanos on how he sees such a threat for Cuba in the coming period.


18 thoughts on “What’s Looming for Cuba?

  • September 6, 2016 at 1:37 pm

    You misunderstood the nature and purpose of Obama’s declaration of Venezuela as a national security threat. The text of the statement referred specifically to the rapidly declining economic, political and social institutions in Venezuela. The concern in the US government is that when the economy in Venezuela hits rock bottom, when the Maduro government fully collapses, and various antagonistic groups take to fighting it out in the streets, there will be a flood of refugees leaving the country. This will have a domino effect on the stability of neighbouring countries, such as Colombia, Panama, Cuba, Ecuador Guyana & etc.

    You are correct, the economic & political situations between Turkey & Venezuela are very different. But the option for using a crisis to attack opposition members is similar, and is well under way in Venezuela.

    You can point to one small rally a few months ago, but last week the opposition held a rally in Caracas which drew over 1 million people in support of the recall referendum. https://twitter.com/TomBurridgebbc/status/771400828544516096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    At another rally, the people chased Maduro away when he attempted to speak his usual bullshit to them.

    I am as concerned about the safety of Cuban medical staff as anybody is. They should leave the country as soon as possible. Likewise, the thousands of Cuban MININT agents in Venezuela should also leave.

  • September 2, 2016 at 1:06 pm

    New protests against Maduro are now happening (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37243191) — if Maduro keeps acting like a slowpoke in allowing the recall referendum to occur, then the protestors could take over government buildings like mobs and they hijack the accounts of Maduro’s advisors. And if Maduro gets thrown out of power, and the remaining oil shipments to Cuba will be terminated, then Raul Castro will hand over power to Miguel Diaz Canel.

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