Where We’re At with the Arrival of 2024
By Harold Cardenas Lema (La Joven Cuba)
HAVANA TIMES – Cuba hasn’t had a good year for a long time, and since the last seven have been progressively worse, it doesn’t seem that 2024 will be any different. Cubans have reached January with enormous need for a functioning economy, inclusive policies, and a national narrative that could generate new consensus.
The economic crisis and the bombardment of (bad) government propaganda has left a sector of the Cuban population politically vulnerable to the extreme right wing, with a lack of civic tools for dialogue and a great thirst for ideas that could lead to prosperity. Particularly worrisome is the rise of libertarian ideology and rightist propaganda among the youth, especially the males in the urban areas.
In recent years, with a few exceptions, Cuban journalism has polarized, across the political spectrum. It’s become common to utilize journalism to spread hatred and character assassination of political adversaries, thus justifying human rights violations. While there were modest advances in the national political culture during the brief period of normalizing relations [with the US], the Trump lack of ethical standards in the US quickly invaded the Cuban-American exile community, and the Cuban government responded with similar methods. For every [Alejandro] Otaola [Cuban-American social media influencer and political activist] there was a Guerrero Cubano [“Cuban Warrior”, a pro-government YouTuber given to hate speech]; and every slur of “Asshole!” was answered with a “Dickhead!.” It will be hard to recover cordial political language.
A quick glance at the gamut of Cuban influencers suggests that, in many cases, their credentials and analysis of domestic and international politics leaves a lot to be desired, yet a constantly growing number of Cubans are using them as their sources of information. These Cubans don’t consult experts but turn to those who have the time and resources to generate digital content. The problem isn’t that the information is entertaining, but the fact that this entertainment is mixed with misinformation. This daily avalanche of distortion contrasts with the audience’s lack of tools to distinguish its quality – a phenomenon that transcends the borders of the island.
The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) recently noted that in the last two years 460,000 Cubans have arrived in the United States or applied for asylum from Mexico, the equivalent of the entire population of the Cuban province of Mayabeque plus the Isle of Youth. The cost to the island in the last several years has been extremely high, and its consequences will only grow over time. The fractured families, and the economic dependency that Cubans staying on the island have with their peers outside will have political repercussions.
The international conflicts also threaten more contradictions for Cuba and the world. The dilemma of European security that came to a head with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues testing Cuba’s discourse on self-determination and respect for sovereignty. Meanwhile, Israel’s genocidal violence against Palestinians in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attack has been met with complicity or silence on the part of many western powers, comprising irrefutable evidence of different standards used for allies and enemies, destroying the notion of an international order based on norms.
In this context, the Cuban government appears to focus more on denouncing external aggression than on the search for reforms that could get the country out of its current crisis. The need for profound changes represents an existential question for the Communist Party. If it wants to continue existing, or aspires to maintain itself in power, it must urgently begin to transform itself. However, those in the Palace of the Revolution are behaving as if they didn’t know this.
Between the scant recognition of the reality of the crisis, and the half-baked plans that emerge from the hallways of the Central Committee, it would seem that the country’s authorities have all the time in the world at their disposal. The United States government can give itself the luxury of not moving a finger in 2024 related to Cuba, because the status quo benefits the plans for a change of administration; but the Cuban government doesn’t have that luxury.
From their battle trenches, the Cuban communists boasted for decades of the purity of their model, while criticizing the transformations of their Asian colleagues. But despite their contradictions, today China and Vietnam are the places where millions are overcoming poverty, while Cuba sinks further into destitution. The timid economic opening, which economists had been demanding here for years, arrived late and at the worst possible time. Today, the government doesn’t have the resources to deal with the inequality and finds itself in a more vulnerable position than before when negotiating with foreign investors. It also has extremists in their ranks that resist the changes that could put the country on its feet.
Betting on continuity – while it may have calmed the representatives of our tropical Stalinism – was not only a political error, but also an economic and communications one. All political systems need to transform in accordance with the demands of the constantly changing circumstances. Here, though, at the moment when the country has most needed the capacity for adaptation and critical thinking, dogmatism has been empowered, and its representatives have become more influential than ever. Next year, we’ll continue seeing the results of this invisible tug-of-war between those who recognize the necessity for change, and those who resist it.
In 2022, we saw the Young Communist League more concerned with exercising control over the (The University of Havana) magazine “Alma Mater,” than of encouraging credible journalism. In that way, they aborted the hope of a new model of press reporting. In 2023, we witnessed the commotion when a professor explained on national television how vulnerable Cuban patriotism is today. To speak of politics in the government media without utilizing euphemisms has become nearly impossible.
On the other hand, in the Cuban political sphere, there’s growing persecution by radical groups towards those that don’t pass their strict examination of purity. A few weeks ago, when La Joven Cuba tried to open a space for debate in Havana, the complaints of these political agitators were valued more than our constitutional right to public debate. Such Stalinist purges wouldn’t be possible without the tacit support of powerful figures in the Cuban Communist Party.
It’s also notable how the government discourse has abandoned such terms as liberty, democracy, or human rights. They don’t even dispute the use of these terms with the opposition, they just substitute a simplistic propaganda that divides us into good and bad; us and them. It’s a government’s responsibility to lift up their people through civic education, and not lower their own political language to simplified notions of love and hate.
The Cuban opposition doesn’t have a lot to offer either. The ground that’s been gained in the last few years isn’t thanks to their superior plan of government or the brilliance of their leaders, but the result of the crisis and the government’s own errors. If you need hunger, misery, or another’s mistakes in order to fatten the ranks of a political movement, that’s a clear sign of the movement’s contradictions. There won’t be democratic peace in Cuba without political competition and the participation of all Cubans. How to do this with justice, taking into consideration US interference and the asymmetries among political groups, is the challenge of the upcoming years.
The democratic credentials of the political forces that are currently battling are dubious. Many of those who speak of a “socialist rule of law” believe, above all, in the right of the Revolution to exist through eternal “revolutionary violence” practiced against their political adversaries, even when they’re part of the people they claim to defend. And among those who beg for democracy though a political transition, there are many admirers of Trump, Milei and Bolsonaro, leaders who don’t respect the democratic norms of their own countries.
Even the most organized opposition is still incapable of proposing a political change that could maintain the national sovereignty and not mean inverse repression – for example the left being persecuted by an anticommunism that is more visceral every day. As a political tactic, what seems to function best for them is shining a light on the authoritarian conduct of public employees and the non-existence of the rule of law on the island. In 2024, we can expect more of that.
Nonetheless, we shouldn’t speak so lightly about these political groups – they’re not homogeneous forces and there’s diversity in the Cuban government as well as in the opposition. There are civic voices in the government and in the ranks of the opposition, as well as a silent mass of Cubans who don’t identify with the narratives of any of these groups, all of them drowned in the chorus of the extremists.
The Cuba of 2024 is difficult, and the construction of the nation isn’t an exact science, although we do know how not to do it. A democratic country isn’t achieved by supporting sanctions that starve the people, or imitating the persecution and stripping of rights that they accuse the opposite band of doing. There’s no socialism if a thousand Cubans are jailed without distinguishing between violent and peaceful protest, or the conditions of vulnerability that led them to take this action.
La Joven Cuba is fulfilling a role in civil society: giving voice to those who lack the microphones and spotlights that belong to the opposition and the government. The extremists will never like having dialogue promoted, but we’ll continue doing so. And we thank you for accompanying us.