HAVANA TIMES — In Mostoles, Spain, something like the Alamar of Madrid (but with a lot more parks), a collective and self-management initiative known as the “Breaking the Cycle” the Institute of Transition” has carried out work for more than a year.
Over time, the issue of “Peak Oil,” has become the focal point for consolidating a communitarian project since its practice seeks to contribute to post-capitalist social transformation.
Today Havana Times is speaking with one of this group’s members: Emilio Santiago Muiño.
“Pilu,” as everyone calls him, is a social anthropologist and is currently on the island studying Cuba’s adaptation to oil shortages following the collapse of the USSR.
HT: What social implications do you think “Peak Oil” might have?
ES: First we should mention that “Peak Oil,” in geology, is the point at which oil production has reached its highest point, meaning that thereafter it can only decline – much like the bell curve of a Gaussian mathematical function.
Historically, when this happens it puts humanity in the position of facing a change that could be as drastic as that of the Industrial Revolution at the beginning of the early 19th century. This decline in our primary source of energy will force a transformation in all areas, from socio-economic life to the collective imagery of lifestyles. Then too, there’s the fact of having no assurance of a smooth and easy transition free of trauma – on the contrary, there’s a real risk of social collapse.
HT: Why do you consider Cuba an observation point for energy decline in the 21st century?
ES: In 1991 in Cuba, with the fall of the USSR, the nation suffered a severe energy crisis owing to the disappearance of the economic bloc in which it was inserted, also because of the role played by the US trade embargo. Cuba’s social metabolism, which was industrial in all aspects, including agriculture, suffered a shortage of energy and the country had to function with much less, roughly the situation that the rest of the world will have to face later in this century.
HT: What experiences of the Special Period crisis do you consider important for addressing a future energy crisis?
ES: Especially at the comparative level, we saw that Cuba avoided widespread famine like what was experienced in North Korea, which is a point that generates a lot of attention. On the other hand there was the need to implement agriculture production with less chemical and energy inputs as well as processes of change and organization that occurred in the agricultural sector. It’s also important to assess the issue of crop cultivation within cities themselves (urban agriculture). Later it was able to address technical solutions such as transportation, electricity management, etc. This isn’t saying ‘Cuba is a model to follow’ but rather ‘Cuba went through this experience with high points and dark spots.’
HT: Do you think the achievements made during the Special Period will last?
ES: With respect to what you’re asking me, there’s a fundamental issue: Cuba never adopted structural measures, only stopgap ones. Paradoxically, the most valuable experiences were in the margins of official policy and contrary to a development model. Possibly nothing remains from what were the best measures of that time, or what does exist is only in a testimonial form.
One example stems from the fact that Havana is the perfect city for bicycles. Though public policy that could have encouraged this — since it would have been simple, not very expensive and would have meant significant changes in terms of improving mobility — this wasn’t sustained, which is something inexplicable. Another one of the valuable experiences of the time was the fact that a group of people (a minority) were convinced that it was possible to pursue an alternative path.
HT: What could be done so that those positive experiences might resurface and be extended?
ES: I can’t think of anything except facilitating the emergence of settings for self-organization so that for people who are against a development model can finally demonstrate that there’s a viable alternative. This is because even if the Cuban state were to hypothetically adopt an eco-socialist model, if the campesino logic continued to hang onto the old “productivist” logic, it wouldn’t work. I don’t even think that the Cuban state adopting another development model would be the solution; However the government could provide a legal framework for those people who are convinced that other development models are possible, and that these people organized them.
HT: Exploration in the exclusive Cuban zone in the Gulf of Mexico has generated conflicting positions as to how beneficial it could be for the country to have an oil reserve. What do you think about this?
ES: What little I can say right now might seem wildly contradictory. On the one hand, for a country that is geopolitically lucky enough to discover oil in a world with declining oil, speaking from perhaps the widest perspective, this might be beneficial – though there would always be the risk of military threats.
But it could also happen that a discovery of this type could mean “bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.” It could permit Cuba to quickly reach a development stage that it had never had before while missing the window of opportunity to make a transition to a truly sustainable model in the most important sense of the word, which is lasting.
I think if Cuba were to discover oil, it would find itself falling into the temptation of not taking the correct steps, something that might sound very harsh to someone who’s looking at the situation from the outside. Possessing oil can be advantageous in the short term but tremendously maladaptive in the long term.
NOTE: In early December, Emilio Santiago will make a presentation on the issue of “Peak Oil” here in Havana. For more information see: www.observatoriocriticodesdecuba.wordpress.com (in Spanish)