When all the Central American countries have controlled the numbers of infections and open their borders, Nicaragua will be isolated
By Vilma Castillo (Confidencial)
HAVANA TIMES – The Sandinista Government is not assessing how its decisions regarding the pandemic will affect Nicaraguans, believers and nonbelievers. Ortega and Murillo believe that sheltered as they are, the pandemic will pass by. But no, if the ship sinks, even their family will sink.
When all the other Central American countries have controlled the number of infections and open their borders, Nicaragua will be isolated. We Nicaraguans will be treated as undesirable because no country will want to risk giving entry to people who come from a country that is already being classified—with good reason—as a source of contagion.
That exclusion will include tourists, migrants, merchants, truckers, businessmen and politicians. Exclusion goes for everyone. The exclusion factor will be the country of origin and will include children, grandchildren, daughters-in-law, sons-in-law and other relatives.
Ortega insists that the United States annuls sanctions to his family. And, at this point in time it is highly probable that he is willing to negotiate a solution in exchange for that action that has hurt so much because of the impact it has had on the businesses and well-being of his offspring. Ortega needs dominion in Nicaragua, his children need money and to move around the world.
I am sure that at this moment Ortega is ready to sacrifice dominion as he has wielded until now. He is willing to give it up—in a format and according to his style—for the well-being and future of his cubs. He knows that his cognitive decline is imminent—in fact, it is already evident—and his time is running out. He knows that his continuity in power is absolutely improbable. The lady of the rings, younger, healthier and barely tasting the honeys of power, is another story.
Accusations of interventionism and Ortega’s complaints about sanctions have not worked and if there is one thing that characterizes him, it is his pragmatism and the use of brutal force to confront problems.
Along that line, I believe the same abandonment in which he has left Nicaragua at this time of pandemic, to the good will of God, could be interpreted as an extreme reaction that conveys a message to the United States —not the Nicaraguan opposition to which he has no respect.
The message is as follows: “Take away the sanctions or I will sink Nicaragua.” And there are more actions that carry the same message to get US attention. For example, the harassment former political prisoners has intensified in recent months and that makes no valid sense at this time along with the continuation of kidnappings, keeping political prisoners incarcerated and sentenced to death in prisons infected with Covid-19, while freeing rapists, femicide perpetrators and murderers.
All these acts are “a trap”. Ortega is an extremist who in this way intends to attract attention to seek that negotiated solution that will free his children.
What the couple has not assessed is that as long as they continue to play at being the gods of death, do nothing to prevent the spread of the pandemic and seek to increase the recovery percentage of people affected, their children will remain confined in the national territory.
No country will want to accept potential carriers of the virus. Ortega believes that once those who have to die are dead, after the expansion of the pandemic has passed and they are free from sanctions, his children will be able to travel and be happy as before.
They are wrong. A few days ago, PAHO’s director of health emergencies said that no one can predict when the risk of becoming ill with Covid-19 will disappear. Conservatively it is estimated that in two years a certified vaccine will be accessible. However, it is not yet known if the vaccine will give enough immunity so that people can circulate without restrictions as before the pandemic.
Meanwhile, pharmaceutical companies are working on a drug, that is also not a short-term goal. All this leads to the conclusion that the only sure thing to avoid getting sick is to prevent exposure to contagion.
Aware of this reality, some countries that have managed to reduce the number of infections and have installed the necessary health capacities to keep their population safe and attend to visitors who may become infected in the country. They are looking for ways to negotiate commercial exchange and tourism agreements among them.
Yes, among them. Countries with which they previously negotiated and had excellent tourist exchanges, but which fail to reduce the number of infections and fatality rates, will be excluded. Closing countries to stop the pandemic has been a very costly strategy, and the countries that have been successful will not easily take risks.
The pandemic is not something to play with. Some positive learning, but everything else is loss and although the poorest, the oldest and those sickest will be the most affected, nobody will come out unscathed from this.